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PA-15: Callahan to Challenge Dent

by: James L.

Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 12:53 PM EDT


From the Allentown Morning Call:

Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan will run for Congress against Republican incumbent Charlie Dent in 2010, sources say, setting up a political battle the likes of which the Lehigh Valley hasn't seen in 17 years.

The two-term mayor has made his decision clear to Democratic Party leaders in Pennsylvania and Washington and is preparing to put a campaign team in place. An official announcement is expected soon.

This is a pretty huge score for the DCCC, and Callahan is likely the biggest outstanding Democratic House recruit who's yet to make a formal decision on a 2010 run.

More:

Elected in 2003 at 34, Callahan has long been viewed as a rising star in the Democratic Party. He's president of the Pennsylvania League of Cities and Municipalities. As mayor, he has presided over a period of huge change in Bethlehem, highlighted by the controversial decision to redevelop the former Bethlehem Steel land into a massive retail and entertainment complex anchored by a casino. Dent opposed the casino plan.

"This is a tremendous recruiting success for Democrats in this district, and it is important they capitalize on it," said Mark Nevins, a Philadelphia-based strategist and former staffer at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Dent has had an easy ride against a series of flawed challengers, most recently pasting Sam Bennett by a monstrous 59-41 margin while Barack Obama was carrying the district with 56% of the vote, so there's no question that this is going to be one tough race even with a competent candidate at the helm. Still, with redistricting right around the corner, this at the very least gives Democrats the chance to soften Dent up going into 2012.

RaceTracker wiki: PA-15

James L. :: PA-15: Callahan to Challenge Dent
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I didn't pay much attention to Bennett's campaign, but
what was flawed about it?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Well
She went through campaign managers at a frightening pace, she was a sloppy public speaker, she caught some heat for incorrectly claiming that a couple of banks had folded, and she received a lot of scrutiny/criticism over her fat salary as a nonprofit executive. Bear in mind that she was also a two time Allentown mayoral primary loser -- not an impressive profile off the bat.

Bennett was very much a third-tier candidate from day one.


[ Parent ]
For all the naysaying
we've actually got some pretty good recruitment this early in the cycle.

It's seats like this, that Obama won big, that are going to provide us with the easiest gains.


Recruitment is good
I agree. But people like Charlie Justice are gonnahave to step it up and big time.

[ Parent ]
We've had some pretty good recruitment, I think
Even in some of our long-shot districts.  We've got Charlie Justice, John Carnery, Tarryl Clark, Doug Pike, Steve Pougnet, Michael Bond, Raj Goyle, Paula Flowers, etc.  We have to keep trying to get good recruits in MI-11, WA-8, VA-10, SC-1, FL-25, NY-3, MN-3, etc.  Any more news about the rumors that Manny Diaz might run against Mario Diaz-Balart?

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
Awesome
I'll gladly trade this, Kirk, Castle, and Gerlach for Bright, Minnick, Marshall, and Griffith in a heartbeat.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

do you one better
I'll gladly takes these seats and KEEP Bright, Minnick, Marshall and Griffith.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Also works for me
:)

[ Parent ]
Oh yeah!


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Griffith will probably win re-election pretty easily
Northern Alabama is still a pretty Democratic area on the state level, so the Republicans don't have much of a bench in AL-05. That's why they went with some guy who lost to Bud Cramer over a decade ago instead of a state representative or whatever.

[ Parent ]
eh
it looks like Republicans may have a local county comm to run this year though.....Mo Brooks is looking at the race and he's the county comm from Madison County

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Kerry/Republican districts
The only remaining districts that voted for Kerry in 04 and are still represented by a Republican are PA-06, PA-15, DE-AL, IL-10 and WA-08. (And LA-02 which we'll win back easily.) If I'm missing any then let me know.
In 2010 we might win the last of them. 3 of them will probably be open.
Dent, unlike the these other Representatives, voted against Cap and Trade, and probably has other conservative votes that can be used against him.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

What about Gore/GOP districts?
Given that that was a very even race, how many districts do we need to pick up there?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
There are more of those.
That list would include some districts that drifted away from us over the years. The ones I can think of are NJ-04 and NY-03.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
Drifted away a little
Your two examples I think are timebombs waiting to come to us.  More likely, he carried some border south/Appalachian districts which are flying away from us very quickly.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
They are
NJ-2, NJ-4, NY-3, and FL-10.  NJ-4 we probably won't win again on any level for a long time.  NJ-2 is possible but not likely.  NY-3 only possible if King doesn't run.  FL-10 is the only good opportuninty on that list.  

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
And Lance
is within a percentage point.  Turns out I was wrong...no earthshattering Appalachian drift.  Maybe for Clinton (I'm fairly certain that in '96 we carried some Appalachian Dem-held districts, especially places like southern West Virginia and parts of Tennessee), but not by Gore's time.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Gore carried Rahall's district
and Tanner's district.  He almost won L. Davis and Bart Gordon's districts.  He won Marion Berry and Mike Ross's districts.  But yeah Clinton probably won every district in WV, at least the 3 Dem held AR districts if not all 4.  Probably Gordon and Davis's district in TN, and I'm pretty sure he won parker Griffith's district.  Same for Hal Roger's and Ben Chandler's districts.  

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
New Jersey
Would be ours in an instant, maybe minus Garrett's nutty district, if the New Jersey Dems ceased having civil war as their favorite sport and created a slightly more sane map with more credible challengers.  I also do think LoBiondo is in trouble, especially if Van Drew runs.  Smith should be vulnerable too...even in his GOP Ocean County base, his strident social conservatism can't be too popular, can it?)

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
New Jersey
A more sane map could, at best, be 10-2 for the Democrats. Smith is safe. He keeps getting reelected by 2-1 margins. He's pro-environment and economically moderate, and voters are willing to ignore his social conservatism.
(later revision)

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
another interesting map
Would be to draw a possible map where we control NJ-02 as well.  Would it look substantially different?  Could we weaken Smith then (i.e., if Van Drew or a few others jump in in NJ-02 and grab it)?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]

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