Third Time's The Charm, Dan

I suggest if you fail to win in 2010, you find yourself an alternative career.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 18:46:09 PM UTC

He lost

badly in the last general election. I hope he is defeated in the Democratic primary.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 20:21:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK, maybe that's irrelevant

After all, he wouldn't have an incumbent Kirk as opposition this time.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 20:45:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe relevant

Seals ran 16 points behind Obama in his district.  If anybody should have been helped by coat tails, he was it.  Time for a new candidate.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 23:22:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

Seals had his chance. It's time for someone new.

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by: fatcathobbes @ Tue Jul 21, 2009 at 23:56:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

But if Seals can continue his fundraising prowess, its going to be awfully difficult for someone to beat him.

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by: safi @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 00:56:59 AM UTC

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Safi, that's a very bad assumption......

Just ask Terry McAuliffe what all his money got him.  And that's just one of innumberable examples of high-rollers getting beat, in both parties' primaries and in general elections.

Democratic primary voters will recognize Seals as the guy who twice couldn't beat Kirk, even with home-state Obama on the ballot.  So there will be plenty of them with hesitation to give Seals a third chance.  It doesn't help Seals that he's never been elected to anything in his life.

It won't be the least bit surprising if Seals outraises other Dems but loses in the primary to Bond or that state Rep. whose name I heard for the first time today and can't remember off the top of my head--both of them state legislators and, therefore, proven vote-getters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 01:27:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

First of all

I didn't say he'd win rather I simply stated that he'd be difficult to beat if he continued his prodiguous fundraising, do you actually disagree with that?

Of course there are candidates who heavily outspent their opponents who lost. I remember the 1992 Wisconsin Dem primary where Russ Feingold was heavily outspent by not one but two people and ended winning with around 70%. But I think if you compiled a list of candidates who've outraised their opponents 3:1 which Seals is capable of, its not going to be a particularly long list.

Sure there will be people who vote against him based on past electoral losses but there will also be those who vote for him because they'll just see a lot more of him.

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by: safi @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 15:32:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's is why I'm not writing Seals off yet:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T...
Three time congressional loser (76,78, 80) before getting elected (92) then losing again (94) and coming back (96).

How do I put this . . . I know Seals (from him being a candidate), I like Seals, but I'm looking at other options.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 15:21:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree completely, David Kowalski......

Seals was impressive in 2006, but 2008 was a bad underperformance.  I think Democratic primary voters in most areas of the country usually are pretty smart, and I suspect Seals will find his path to the nomination difficult this time.  He still has a legitimate chance at winning it, but he's not a darling anymore and will have to grind it out.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 01:29:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Seals needs to stop running

I think Seals internal message was vote for me cause Im exactly like Obama. If he couldn't win with Obama having carried the district 61 to 38 he wont win in 2010. Support Michael Bond please.

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by: jmartin4s @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 20:17:29 PM UTC

Kirk

said Seals would support Obama's agenda, and than Seals ran an ad saying "damn right I'll support Obama's agenda." And he STILL couldn't pull it off.

Kirk blathering mindlessly:

Seals snaps back:


22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 23:17:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That was a great ad

At least I thought so at the time. Seals ain't happenin' folks. Unfortunately.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Jul 22, 2009 at 23:28:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]