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SSP Daily Digest: 7/20

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jul 20, 2009 at 1:48 PM EDT


IL-Sen: Today's the day for Mark Kirk's official entry into the Senate race, despite the fact that everyone and his dog already knows he's running. He got one unwelcome piece of news over the weekend, though: a primary challenge, from retired state trial court judge Don Lowery, from Pope County downstate. Apparenty the unknown Lowery doesn't pose as much of an obstacle as state GOP chair Andy McKenna would have, as Kirk didn't storm out of the race this time.

NV-Sen: The Las Vegas Review-Journal's newest poll finds that John Ensign's numbers continue to slip. His approval rating is 31%, down from 39% last month (post-scandal, but before news of his parental payoff) and from 53% pre-scandal. Only 34% think he should resign, though.

NH-Sen: Businessman Fred Tausch launched a subtle attack against likely GOP primary opponent Kelly Ayotte over the weekend, accusing "the governor, the attorney general, and legislature" of putting the state on the path toward an income tax.

NY-Sen-B: Ooops. Rep. Carolyn Maloney was caught using the N-word in an interview with City Hall News. She was quoting someone secondhand, but still sounds bad out of context.

NC-Sen: Guess who's a member of the Run, Elaine, Run! Facebook group that's trying to get Elaine Marshall to run for Senate? Elaine Marshall! Now I don't know if that's a tea leaf that she's interested or just a friending-someone-to-be-polite situation, but it's interesting. (H/t possumtracker1991.)

NJ-Gov: The New York Times reports that Jon Corzine, in the wake of a costly divorce and a big hit to his portfolio, is having raise campaign funds from contributors like a mere mortal. His goal is $15 million from donors, on top of no more than $25 million of his own money. (That's compared to the $60 million he spent on his 2000 Senate race.)

NM-Gov: Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez, who we mentioned last week, went ahead and just full-on into the GOP primary for the open governor's race in New Mexico, skipping the exploratory phase. Meanwhile, investment advisor and National Guard brigadier general Greg Zanetti, who for most of the was the only declared GOP candidate although without seemingly getting much traction, dropped out of the race, citing family concerns.

PA-Gov: Auditor Jack Wagner confirmed on Friday in a TV interview that he'll run for Governor in 2010. A formal announcement will come later, he says, but he's still the first Democrat to sort-of-kind-of pull the trigger.

NH-01: Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta has had a nose for bad news in the last few weeks, although "unpaid sewer bills" doesn't sound quite as bad as "bar brawl..." y'know, unless you're running as the "fiscal responsibility" candidate. For the second time, Guinta has failed to stay current on the sewer taxes on an apartment building he owns in Manchester (while, at the same time, he can afford to shore up his weak fundraising with a $20,000 personal loan).

NY-23: This is poorly sourced and slightly incoherent, but a local GOP blog is reporting that Democratic state Sen. Darrel Aubertine did, in fact, get in the race for the NY-23 special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. (UPDATE: The Syracuse Post-Standard reports that the Democratic county chairs in the district have extended their deadline for candidates to express their interest in the race to Thursday, July 23rd at 5pm. Reading the tea leaves, it seems that the county chairs are eager to give the nomination to Aubertine, if he wants it.)

OH-16: Buried deep in a story about friendly local teabaggers protesting Rep. John Boccieri's cap-and-trade vote are the names of a couple potential GOP candidates in the 16th, a race that has escaped much of any scrutiny so far. Named are former Canton mayor Janet Creighton and businessman Jim Renacci, who owns the Columbus arena football franchise.

KY-Lt. Gov: It's never to early to start thinking about 2011. Steve Beshear chose his running mate for his re-election campaign (as current LG Dan Mongiardo won't run again, as he plans on being Senator at that point); he'll run with 20-year Louisville mayor Jerry Abramson.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/20
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Republcians can be very scary
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

No wonder wignuts get out of a GOP primary.  With activists like that... yikes.


frightening
and yet, I can't help but think these silly people are only serving to further shrink the Republican Party.

[ Parent ]
That was the face of crazy!!
The good congressman's response should have been "I support including comprehensive mental health services in any health care reform proposal."

These are the same wack-jobs who were pushing "Clinton had Vince Foster killed" fifteen years ago -- the only difference is they now have the full-blown internet at their disposal.

I hope they keep pushing Republican candidates on this -- it puts even moderate R's in a potentially tough position, especially if their response is to say the Pledge!!


[ Parent ]
OK SEN
The FEC filing deadline has come and gone and I still haven't heard what Coburn pulled in.  He had 58K or so CoH last time but I haven't seen any new number.  I looked at the FEC website and it had updated numbers for Inhoffe but not for Coburn.  Can anyone shed some light on this?

Aubertine
So, odds are his Senate seat is gone.  And the NYS is plunged into yet another era of the split chamber.  Um.  Are we really sure that the House seat is worth it?

OTOH, we're pretty much guaranteed to pick up Senate seats in 2010, right?


It's not worth it all
but well, you cant blame the guy for wanting an upgrade when his current job is a NY state Senator, probably the most infuriating job there is in this country currently.

[ Parent ]
Right up there with California state legislator.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
This is terrible news
Democrats need to hold the state Senate for total control of redistricting (including NYS Senate redistricting). Aubertine is a very conservative Democrat anyway. They're far, far better off keeping a secure hold on the Senate and simply eliminating NY-23 in redistricting come 2012.

Risking control of the Senate in order to reduce the GOP from 3/29 to 2/29 of the Congressional delegation is just asinine. That House seat has very little value, and would just become another tough, expensive hold for a Blue Dog.        


[ Parent ]
There's still 2010
The New York Senate is up every two years, so it's not like there won't be another opportunity to pick up seats there.

[ Parent ]
Well
The Senate in its current form is grotesquely gerrymandered. There aren't many competitive seats. It took the Democrats decades to squeak out the current majority.    

[ Parent ]
Doesn't matter
That Senate seat is not very important at all.  Either reapportionement will be Democratic controlled, or non-partisan.  Either is fine to undo the gross gerrymandering.

[ Parent ]
Non-partisan?
When has anything been non-partisan in New York State? I could only wish!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
NY-23 shouldn't be
eliminated though, that would be unfair and tell me what you would with that area? Chris Lee's NY-25 is losing far more population, as is the entire southern tier, and it makes more sense to eliminate that district.

Then redraw King's district to take in the more liberal areas of Long Island, and boom, wow, you have a 28-0 Democratic legislation, and without a whole a lot of horrible gerrymandering, and built by the strength of numerous conservative and moderate Democrats. And if the state loses two congressional districts I would propose eliminating Maurice Hinchey's district, and giving Eric Massa Ithaca, which is about 70% Democratic, and then have John Hall absorb the rest of Hinchey's old district.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
I thought
I read in previous discussions here that NY-25 may be too concentrated in Republicans to safely divide it among the surrounding areas.

Plus, what good is expanding the Blue Dog caucus by one to lose the NYS Senate? Keeping the Senate will yield the Dems safe domination of the state legislature for a decade and a 26/2 Congressional delegation at worst. Hopefully Aubertine can be talked out of it.  


[ Parent ]
I don't think that it would be too difficult to break up Lee's district
I would take Slaughter's portion of Buffalo plus Lee's portion of suburban Erie County and combine them, then add Niagra County and maybe another rural county like Orleans.  Then I would put a few of Lee's southern rural Counties in Higgins's district and maybe one in Massa's.  Then I would give Massa as much of Rochester/Monroe County as needed to shore him up.  Slaughter and Higgins are both popular in Buffalo, although Slaughter lives near Rochester and should either move or retire.  Massa should be safe enough with all of Rochester in his district.  

Regarding Long Island, I think that I read here that somehting like 1.5 Congressional districts will shift into NYC.  Since Gary Ackerman's district is about half in Queens and Half in Long Island, I propose shifting it entirely into Queens and combine the parts of Nassau County left over with the Northern portion of King's district, creating a new 3rd district that is basically the Northern half of Nassau County.  Then we break up the Southern half of King's district between McCarthy and Israel's districts.  King's home would probably end up in Israel's district, which would be made slightly more Republican but won't contain much of King's base in Nassau and will be heavily in Suffolk County.  Gary Ackerman lives on Long Island so he would probably run in the new 3rd.  McCarthy's district will become a bit more Republican but still be heavily Democratic with a high minority population.  This would create a new heavily Asian and Jewish Northeast Queens District that would go easily Democratic.

16, Male, MI-01


[ Parent ]
Sounds like a good plan
I stand corrected. But we do need control of the NYS Senate to do any of that. Those who are eager to send Aubertine to battle are not being very practical, IMO. A 27-1 map and total domination of state government isn't half bad.  

[ Parent ]
that would mean
two northern districts would have to be created. But the best way to help Massa would add Ithaca into his district. Of course it might be needed to shore Arcuri.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
What do you mean
why would there be two northern districts?

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
I'm sorry, I meant
to say, it would mean two upstate districts would have to be eliminated.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Just one
Just the 26th would be decimated and parcelled out, with a few adjustments to neighboring districts.  The 23rd would remain, which I want to seriously contest, but I wonder if Scozzafava might not end up more progressive despite her R label than Aubertine would.  I can see the GOP rank and file being REALLY pissed about a Assemblywoman-turned-Senatorial candidate who had actively and successfully courted the Working Families line.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Aubertine is still a dem
Schofazza will vote more conservatively than she believes because she will politically have to, same with Aubertine.

You're right, the GOP rank and file is already pissed. RedState officially sort of endorsed the Democrat, Aubertine, the other day, in a very angry post called, "This is what Republican suicide looks like"

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
Aubertine and Scozzafava
We'll see.  Despite being a Republican bastion, the 23rd was a place where liberal Rockefeller Republicans romped and I actually doubt Scozzafava will have to vote much differently than her conscience dictates for the 23rd.  The 20th is actually much more conservative.  I really do think she'll run to Aubertine's left, assuming they're the two selected.  That said, he is a Dem and not an awful one, so he's probably vote-worthy.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
No, the 3rd wouldn't be eliminated, it would just be moved north
And Ackerman's district would move into Queens.  

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
that's what i meant
you're adding an NYC district, so that means eliminating an upstate one.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
No, sorry I kindof misspoke
I mean to say that there would now be an Open seat in queens that is heavily Asian/Jewish.  This is still District 5.  It's not new, it's just moved completelyl into NYC.  There would only be 4 districts on Long Island, but another district in Queens, so it shakes out to even like before.

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
I think so
and I'm not one who thinks the state Senate doesn't matter.

It's not a bad thing to load up on U.S. House seats in the Northeast.  We don't need seats per se, but at some point (maybe even 2010/12) a bunch of the Blue Dog seats are going to melt away.  There aren't that many places left to go (geographically) for seats that will trend and become seriously Blue over time.  Northern Appalachia and Southern California seem the most likely.

The NY state Senate...NY Democrats should pick up more seats in central Long Island, inside the City, and along the Hudson.  Their limits are frankly set by their own corruption and internal politicking and the legislative fecklessness that results.  The problem innards of the machinery need the Republicans as frenemies; a one party state would mean Democrats having to take full responsibility and getting things done right.  The confidence and maturity for that seems, er, lacking.


[ Parent ]
NY-Sen B and KY-LT-Gov
-I expect that this is going to become a sleazy, under the radar thing that gets passed around Harlem and other areas of NY. It's not right, but I expect it will happen. Man, I've become cynical.

-What do we know about Jerry Abramson?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


Gillibrand/Maloney
The whole thing has started in the gutter and is headed into the sewer. I hope the Gillibrand people stay above it. Basically she just has to introduce herself to New Yorkers in her own way and largely ignore Maloney and her attacks. Thankfully she can afford to do just that. But I wouldn't be waiting too much longer to start. Labor Day at least.

[ Parent ]
But the New York City sewers
are where ninja turtles are found!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Abramson
Unions have been upset with him because he has been tough in negotiations with city employees. However, one worry about him running statewide in the past is that he is too liberal for KY. He has a good record on economic development and I have heard he has been good on enviromental issues.

[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania/New York/New Jersey
It's about time a credible Democrat gets into the race for governor. I think Wagner will be a fine candidate and if he wins Governor.

If this is true then this race looks like a Schofazza vs. Aubertine showdown. if Aubertine gets in I fully expect him to pull this one off. Winning this seat would demoralize the GOP even more. Imagine what the northeast would look like if the 23rd went blue. Im hoping Aubertine does indeed get into the race.

Bushie Chris Christie today announced his Lt.Gov. nominee. He choose Monmouth county sheriff Kimberly McFadden Guadagno. This comes as a surprise to me as I was expecting him to choose either liberal State Senator Diane Allen or moderate Bergen county clerk Kathleen Donovan. I guess he wanted someone who would cause him no warm and would sew up his "prosecutor" imagine given the fact that he was been given trouble with him giving his friends no-bid contracts. I'm still waiting for Corzine to pick his running mate. I'll be happy with State Senators Wineberg, Buono, or my Passaic county freeholder and AA Tahesha Way.        

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  


NJ-GOV
What? No love for reality tv stars?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I heard Paterson
Considered Fran Drescher for LG!

[ Parent ]
Why would NY's future Junior Senator
settle for a backwoods job as LG?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
And Clintons seat
He considered appointing her  

[ Parent ]
Pickett
If Corzine chooses Pickett for his LG then I believe that Corzine deserves to loose.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
hopefully
Corzine picks Frank LoBiondo.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Obama probably suggested it
While he was there.

[ Parent ]
Obama probably suggested it
While he was there.

[ Parent ]
LoBiodio?
u guys are joking right? First he's a loyal republican. Second Corzine already ruled out choosing a white male as his LG.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
Snark
Or haven't you noticed the president's penchant for opening up vulnerable House seats in the North East?

[ Parent ]
Loyalty has its limits
McHugh was a loyal GOPer of the sane variety too...and he bolted.  LoBiondo or Lance might be very good.  Chris Smith is actually quite moderate too, outside of his positions on choice, reproductive health and LGBT rights, which fall into the realm of sheer lunacy. With him, it would depend on what sort of leash could be constructed for the guy.  

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Statewide in NJ
Ultra right positions on abortion and gay rights (although i have not heard he is ultra right on gay rights but i know hes conservative) is enough to doom you...no matter if youre moderate, or even liberal probably, on everything else. Its just such a culturally liberal state.  

[ Parent ]
True enough
But it's a Lt. Gov. position.  How many folks, besides us SSPers and fellow political bloggers, know a damn about their "lite" Gov?  If he had no authority over anything related to social/reproductive policy, it might serve to get him out of his current spot.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
intimidation at Kirk campaign kick-off
I wrote about it on Prairie State Blue.


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