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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: DavidNYC

Fri Jul 17, 2009 at 7:04 PM EDT


Any thoughts on who will emerge to take on Sen. Junkie Einstein (R-SD)?


DavidNYC :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 64 comments
Ummmm.....
That had to be the most ridiculous, idiotic thing I have every laid eyes on!  Waste of good space!

"Cuz Senator Byrd Said So!"
I've just watched it 5 times
And I love it. It's the smooooooke, it's the, it's the IN-halation, it's the smoooooooke!

Delaware Liberal - biggest and best blog in Delaware.
[ Parent ]
Autotune the News is hilarious
go watch the other ones. LMAO.  
[ Parent ]
Corzine
I'm putting most of my energy on re-electing Jon Corzine here in Jersey and helping some of locals candidates running for assembly, freeholder, etc. I think Corzine can pull it off if he gets his act together and the Democratic base puts their faith behind him.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
Daggett
Will he definitely be on the ballot? Corzine has to get closer obviously be could be a wildcard.  
[ Parent ]
Daggett
Yep not only will Daggett defiantly be on the ballot but he has already qualified for matching campaign funds. It seems that Daggett might play the spoiler for Christie instead of Corzine as many have thought. Democrats and liberal Independents who loath Corzine enough to vote for Christie seem to be supporting Daggett instead of Christie. This is a good thing and as long as Daggett gets about 3-8% of the vote it seems that Corzine may pull this off.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
What...the hell...was that???
Also, as for the AMA's recent endorsement of the House bill, does anyone else think of an analogy to rats clinging onto floating bits of a shipwreck, as the ship goes down?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
AZ-GOV
Rumors are mounting that accidental governor Jan Brewer is either planning to forgo plans to run for a full term or will receive a serious challenge from the right. Yes, you may be surprised to learn that a sizable chunk of AZ's conservative movement doesn't find her conservative enough, though some of their criticism does boil down to other qualities like her lack of leadership in the ongoing budget clusterfuck. Accidental Secretary of State Ken Bennett (who, as a former Senate President was said to be looking at the 2010 open-seat race before Napolitano's appointment put Brewer in the way) recently sent out a not-quite denial to a rumor that he was considering still running in 2010--whether Brewer was still in the running or not. Other potential candidates whose names are being thrown around if Brewer bails include Reps Jeff Flake and John Shadegg (who is supposedly sick of being in the House and miffed that he probably has no Senate seat to run for until at least 2016) and Maricopa County Attorney (and wet dream of movement conservatives) Andrew Thomas. I like Terry Goddard's odds against any of them (especially because he has the potential hurdle in that Brewer is doing a pretty good job of appearing moderate in the media as she is technically to the left of the far-right legislature), and it will make things more interesting in any event.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
I can't see Brewer beating Goddard
or Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon, or even Jim Pederson should he try for this office and the previous two decide not to.  Basically, this is one of the best pickup opportunities we have outside of the top-tier of CA, HI, and RI.
[ Parent ]
Gordon and Pederson
have both categorically ruled out runs. Maybe Gordon's eyeing the Senate in 2012, figuring he can beat Giffords on geographic grounds (it's not terribly easy to get elected in Arizona if you're not from Maricopa County).

Brewer certainly wouldn't be favored in a one-on-one with Goddard, but I wouldn't write her off for dead just yet. The few polls I've seen of her approvals are surprisingly not bad. I think the Republicans in the legislature are coming off looking worse in this mess to anyone outside of the movement conservative crowd. It's without question one of better pick-up opportunities, but especially because Goddard can't even get started until January, it won't be a freebie.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
I can live with Democrats winning both the governor office and

majority in, say, the Arizona state House next year.

I really can.

[ Parent ]
Try to sweep the Philadelphia area in 2010
I predict if Toomey is the Republican Senate candidate then he will be a drag on all Republican House candidates in moderate districts in PA.
PA-06: It will be open in 2010. It's D+4. We have a strong candidate, an editorial writer for a major newspaper, which I think that's a great qualification for congress. It will be embarrassing if we lose this.
PA-15: The Allentown-Bethlehem district. It's D+2. Charlie Dent kept getting reelected in 2006 and 2008, but this time we have a top tier candidate, John Callahan, the mayor of Bethlehem. Dent is voting against all of Obama's reforms, and these reforms should be popular in this district.
PA-16: The Chester-Lancaster district. Traditionally very Republican but McCain only won it 51-48. Let's party like it's 2006 and throw our resources into districts like this one. There has got to be a strong Democratic candidate in either Chester or Lancaster County who can run up the margin in Chester while holding their own in Lancaster.
DE-AL: If Mike Castle vacates and John Carney runs then we have no excuse not to win it.
NJ-02: It's D+1. Frank LoBiondo hasn't faced a top tier challenger in a long time. To his credit, he did vote for SCHIP and Cap and Trade. Even if our strong challenger loses in 2010, it will at least force Lobiondo to continue to vote in favor of Obama's liberal policies. The reason I'm stressing NJ-02 is it will almost certainly get more Republican after redistricting, so a top tier Democrat should go for it in 2010 instead of waiting.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
For PA-16.
   There could be a strong candidate: State Representative Tom Houghton.  He represents nearly all of the Chester county portion of PA-16.  He had an amazing victory in 2008 in an area that votes even MORE Republican in local races than in federal races.  The Chester county portion of PA-16 hates Joe Pitts (they gave more votes to the rather liberal Democratic challenger in 2008) even though Pitts is from ChesCo.  I hope that Houghton will challenge Joe Pitts before he retires; before the Republicans can find a more moderate, personable candidate.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
That's good to know
He should go for it in 2010. If Pitts is still the incumbent during redistricting then the district will be made more Republican.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Did Chris Christie pick a Lt. Governor yet?
because wasn't LoBiondo considered a potential choice?  I think VanDrew would win a special election.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
I don't believe so
but I thought the smart money was on State Sen. Diane Allen. Seems unlikely that a sitting Rep. would go for Lt. Governor of a medium-sized state.
[ Parent ]
I don't think John Callahan is running yet
He had ruled it out, and then we learned he was reconsidering his decision. I don't think he's said anything else since?
[ Parent ]
maybe
I just based that on what I read here. I don't know anything that SSP doesn't already know. If he hasn't decided yet then I didn't mean to start a rumor. I hope he does run because I think he would have a good chance.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Quote of the week
I don't know anything that SSP doesn't already know.

But yeah, I was actually just Googling this... Callahan hasn't said anything since his last, somewhat favorable remarks about possibly running. Hopefully he'll announce soon, though I wouldn't be surprised if he waits until after Labor Day. (And I certainly wouldn't be surprised if he decides not to run.)

[ Parent ]
LoBiondo
The only way that seat goes DEM is if LoBiondo is primaried from the right. LoBiondo has the seat for as long as he wants it. I live in his district, even in the DEM Wave years of 2006 and 2008, he won handily.
[ Parent ]
you're probably right.
If that's true then once Mike Castle and Mirk Kirk retire their House seats in 2010, NJ-02 will be the most Democratic district where the Republican Congressman is safe. Still, we haven't seen what happens if the Democrats run a top tier candidate such as Jeff Van Drew.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
NJ-02
At D+1 it rates up there with IA-03 and OH-12 as non competitive races.

PA-15 is actually D+2 but will we be competitive there?

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

[ Parent ]
Will we be competitve there?
I don't know, but both are worth trying.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
NJ-02
At D+1 it rates up there with IA-03 and OH-12 as non competitive races.

PA-15 is actually D+2 but will we be competitive there?

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

[ Parent ]
He didn't have
Top-shelf competition either time. Had Jeff Van Drew run in 2008, it probably would have been a different picture.
[ Parent ]
NM-Gov
Today, a Republican candidate dropped out of the race. But everyone is basically waiting to see what Heather Wilson does.

New Mexico politics from the local perspective.
Also
I'm more concerning about recruiting a pronking good candidate to take out Rep. Robert Ingersol (R-SC) and then primarying that out-of-touch pronker Rep. Carol Reynolds (D-ME). We need principled, pronk, and responsive representation in Congress:


Congress Debates Merits Of New Catchphrase

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

Netroots Nation?
Who's coming? Who's going to get destroyed by my pub quiz team?
I wish I could go. I wanted to.
But it's the family reunion that weekend, and family take precedence.

Hope everyone enjoys!

[ Parent ]
Sea Org Extended Its Billion-Year Domination
Last year, but alas, I won't be there this year. I expect my compatriots to carry on, however... look for the "New Day Co-Op" this time.
[ Parent ]
Not this year
With the fatal loss of DavidNYC it clears the way for new blood. Sea Org's reign shall last no more.  
[ Parent ]
When is it?
I'll be in Pittsburg the weekend of the 25th and the 2nd.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
You'll miss it then
August 13-16.  
[ Parent ]
in the words of mj
i'll be there
[ Parent ]
NC-Sen
Someone started a group on Facebook encouraging Secretary of State Elaine Marshall to run for Senate against Burr. It's up to 89 members in two days. And one of those members is... Elaine Marshall. It is really her profile, not a staff member's.

I think she would be a great candidate though and would beat Burr easily.

So is joining the Facebook group a sign that she wants to get into the race?

Iowa House districts 90 and 21
Two Democratic-held Iowa House districts need new candidates. In HD 90, incumbent John Whitaker is moving to a USDA post. In HD 21, incumbent freshman Kerry Burt was caught lying about his kids' residence to get out of paying school tuition fees. Not good. I would like to see him resign. He was already on shaky ground after a DWI arrest in February.

More on these developments at Bleeding Heartland.

Democrats currently have a 56-44 majority in the Iowa House. I would consider these two districts very important holds, because we have several incumbents representing more marginal districts who may be at risk in 2010.

IA-Gov, this week and every week
until November 2010.

The Iowa Republican blog continued to release results this week from a poll it commissioned in early July. Last week they reported that the poll found Democratic Governor Chet Culver to have a 53 percent approval rating, a 48 percent favorability rating, but just a 36 percent re-elect number. Their wording of the re-election question was not standard, however.

The poll results they released this week indicated that Bob Vander Plaats is the clear Republican front-runner. This is good, because Culver would crush him. I wrote more about the Republican primary contest at Bleeding Heartland.

The Republican poll showed Culver leading Vander Plaats 48-39, and leading other likely Republican candidate Chris Rants 46-36. They also polled Culver against his 2006 opponent Jim Nussle (who isn't running now) and found Culver at 46-45. Finally, they polled Culver against former four-term Governor Terry Branstad and found Branstad would lead 53-37.

Some Des Moines power-brokers have been trying to talk Branstad into running for office again, but I'm skeptical for reasons I outlined here.

In other Iowa news, more than $600 million in state bonds were sold this week as part of Culver's signature "I-JOBS" infrastructure program. The sale went well, and strong investor demand drove down the interest rate. Republicans have been attacking Culver's fiscal policy and in particular the borrowing to fund infrastructure projects. (I described and answered some of their misleading talking points here.)  

Personally that's not my favorite ATTN
I like their latest

And this debate one.


It may not be your favorite...
...but it's still the best. ;)
[ Parent ]
Steve Buyer talking about the tobacco bill
vs Michelle Bachmann talking the climate change bill?

Bachmann wins every time.  

[ Parent ]
You can warn me all you want
but you'll never stop my leafy green fetish!
[ Parent ]
I see.
ATTN is a humor video series.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
boom!
Hollis Brown
He lived on the outside of town
Hollis Brown
He lived on the outside of town
With his wife and five children
And his cabin brokin' down.

You looked for work and money
And you walked a rugged mile
You looked for work and money
And you walked a rugged mile
Your children are so hungry
That they don't know how to smile.

Your baby's eyes look crazy
They're a-tuggin' at your sleeve
Your baby's eyes look crazy
They're a-tuggin' at your sleeve
You walk the floor and wonder why
With every breath you breathe.

The rats have got your flour
Bad blood it got your mare
The rats have got your flour
Bad blood it got your mare
If there's anyone that knows
Is there anyone that cares ?

You prayed to the Lord above
Oh please send you a friend
You prayed to the Lord above
Oh please send you a friend
Your empty pocket tell you
That you ain't a-got no friend.

Your babies are crying louder now
It's pounding on your brain
Your babies are crying louder now
It's pounding on your brain
Your wife's screams are stabbin' you
Like the dirty drivin' rain.

Your grass is turning black
There's no water in your well
Your grass is turning black
There's no water in your well
Your spent your last lone dollar
On seven shotgun shels.

Way out in the wilderness
A cold coyote calls
Way out in the wilderness
A cold coyote calls
Your eyes fix on the shortgun
That's hangin' on the wall.

Your brain is a-bleedin'
And your legs can't seem to stand
Your brain is a-bleedin'
And your legs can't seem to stand
Your eyes fix on the shortgun
That you're holdin' in your hand.

There's seven breezes a-blowin'
All around the cabin door
There's seven breezes a-blowin'
All around the cabin door
Seven shots ring out
Like the ocean's pounding roar.

There's seven people dead
On a south Dakota farm
There's seven people dead
On a south Dakota farm
Somewhere in the distance
There's seven new people born.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

If we're talking about literature,
has anyone here read "The Lottery", a short story by Shirley Jackosn?  We had to read it in English class last year and it changed the way I think about some things.  I'll post a link to it and it's kindof long so if you're going to read it make sure you have time.

http://www.classicshorts.com/s...

16, Male, MI-01

[ Parent ]
I was quoting Bob Dylan


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Oh
The only Dylan songs I know are Like a Rolling Stone and The Night they Drove old Dixie Down, but still "The Lottery" is a good story.

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
Then you only know one
"Dixie" was written by Robbie Robertson.
[ Parent ]
You're right
but it was performed by Dylan in 1974 on his ablum "Before the Flood"  

16, Male, MI-01
[ Parent ]
The Dylan songs I know
are "A Hard Rains Are Gonna Fall", "Blowin' in the Wind", and "The Times They Are A Changing", courtesy of a "Where in Time is Carmen Sandiego?" episode on YouTube.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
IL-14
When I first saw this headline I though "wow, looks like he will turn out to be a flop".

But then I saw that Ethan Hastert's 2ed Q fundraising was for one day, the last day of the quarter, when he started running for Congress.

"Ex-Speaker's Son Collects $87,000 For Illinois Campaign"

Pretty impressive start. '

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey... 87000.html

IL-14 had never really been a race Ive concisdered much watching, but it looks like Hastert could end up being a prolific fundraisier at this pace.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

We'll see . . .
I moved to Denton, TX in 2003, so I missed the big fireworks. But there was something very similar that happened here in 2002. Dick Armey retired, and the result was Dick's son Scott Armey was the front runner to replace him. Scott had all the money, but folks voted for eventual backbencher, and overall awkward guy in large crowds, Michael Burgess instead.

Granted, Scott's DWI during the campaign didn't help, nor did Armey retiring at the 11th hour so that Scott could try and get in unopposed, but Burgess still won. Plenty of time on the clock though.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I'm concerned about myself.
I'm finding it far easier for me to engage in political posturing than to actually discuss something substantially.  Is this bad?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
only if you aspire to be a wonk
If you prefer to be a hack, no problem.
[ Parent ]
hahahahaha
Maybe you should take like a week long break from SSP Glenn.  Granted, you'll just then spend 6 hours reading everything you missed anyway...
[ Parent ]
That's my problem with blogs
I tend to read everything in a given category, and read up everything I missed.

Though I've actually lightened up on reading SSP lately; I mainly only check comments for open threads these days.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Cuomo
Cuomo is waiting for the New York establishment to walk up to his front door, get on their knees, and beg him to run for governor.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
I wanted to add: Udall
And hey, it worked for Tom Udall!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
It's still only July 2009
If he doesn't make a move by March 2010 then we can beg him.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Different scenario here
Any number of warm bodies can beat Patterson, and whoever the Republican is.

On the other hand, the Republicans were running about even with the non-Udall Senate candidates.

Nobody needs Cuomo to run.  There is a basic need to not dither forever though.

[ Parent ]
In fact
I really hope he doesn't run but someone, anyone runs.

Beacuse honestly, Andrew Cumo is not my favorite Democrat. We have a giant bench in New York, I'm sure we can do better.

[ Parent ]
Anything new on CA-44?
I like Hedrick, but so far, he doesn't seem to be raising much $$$.
Tom White in Omaha
I am intrigued as the dickens about Democrat Tom White who is challenging Republican Lee Terry to represent Nebraska's Second Congressional District.  Omaha is the core of the Second-an Obama/Republican U.S. House District, one of only two Obama/Republican districts that directly elects to the Electoral College.  (The other is Delaware.)  

Nebraska's Second is one of only 12 Congressional Districts (including seven in states that have only a single Member of Congress) that directly elects to the Electoral College.

And Nebraska's Second is the only such district where change is happening.  For while three other districts (North Dakota, South Dakota, and Delaware-each of which elects a single member of Congress) also elected Members of Congress who belong to the party that did not win their state's Presidential matchup in 2008, the Members of Congress who represent those states have each been members of the party that did not win their respective state's Presidential matchup in any matchup since they first went to Congress.  

But the chemistry in Terry's district has changed.  Since before Terry first went to Congress-and without interruption through the W years-the  Republican Presidential nominee always won the matchup in Nebraska's Second (until Obama).  We've got to take advantage.  

I think you mean Maine

[ Parent ]
No, I think he means Delaware
he's talking about Obama-RepublicanRep areas that have single sets of electoral votes to themselves.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 64 comments

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