District: IN-01
Location Northwestern IN, bordering IL and Lake Michigan, south from Gary about 100 miles map
Cook PVI D + 8
Representative Peter Visclosky (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 127
First elected 1984
2008 margin 71-27 over Mark Leyva
2006 margin 70-27
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 62-37
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: IN-02
Location Northern central IN, south from South Bend to Kokomo map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Joe Donnelly (D)
VoteView 235
First elected 2006
2008 margin 67-30 over Luke Puckett
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Not completely safe, but only vul to a very good Republican opponent. Tom Weatherwax may run; he is a former state senator.
District: IN-03
Location Northeastern IN, bordering MI and OH, including Fort Wayne map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Mark Souder (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 338
First elected 1994
2008 margin 55-45 over Michael Montagno
2006 margin 54-46
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Current opponents There is a primary opponent, but no Demorats so far.
Demographics 33rd most Republican in Cook PVI
Assessment Gotta be a long shot.
District: IN-04
Location Central IN, including western and southern suburbs of Indianapolis map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Steve Buyer (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 380
First elected 1992
2008 margin 60-40 over Nels Ackerson
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 69-28
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 69-30
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 25th most Republican per Cook PVI, 47th fewest Blacks (1.3%)
Assessment long shot
District: IN-05
Location Central IN, including eastern suburbs of Indianapolis map
Cook PVI R + 17
Representative Dan Burton (R) Not confirmed
VoteView 410
First elected 1982
2008 margin 66-34 over Mary Ruley
2006 margin 65-31
2004 margin 72-26
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 71-28
Current opponents At least one Republican is primarying Burton, and others will run if he retires.
Demographics 22nd fewest in poverty (5.2%), 10th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot
District: IN-06
Location Southern part of eastern IN, bordering OH map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Mike Pence (R)
VoteView 431
First elected 2000
2008 margin 64-33 over Barry Welsh
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 67-31
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 41st fewest Latinos
Assessment Looks tough
District: IN-07
Location Indianapolis and suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Andre Carson (D) Not confirmed
VoteView 147
First elected 2008
2008 margin 65-35 over Gabrielle Campo
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 71-28
Bush margin 2004 42-58
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 50th most Blacks (29.4%)
Assessment safe
District: IN-08
Location The southern part of eastern IN, including Terre Haute and Evansville map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Brad Ellsworth (D)
VoteView 233
First elected 2006
2008 margin 65-35 over Greg Goode
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-51
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Dan Stockton
Demographics 34th most Whites (93.7%), 17th fewest Latinos (0.9%)
Assessment Looks safe; Ellsworth, a conservative Democrat, fits the district well, running way ahead of both Bush and Obama.
District: IN-09
Location Southwestern IN, including Bloomington map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Baron Hill (D)
VoteView 229
First elected 2006
2008 margin 58-38 over Mike Sodrel
2006 margin 50-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 59-40
Current opponents Todd Young and Travis Hankins
Demographics 60th most rural (47.7%) and 58th fewest Latinos (1.5%)
Assessment After a close race in 2006, Hill won easily in 2008, he should be OK, and he's already raised over $200K.
District: IA-01
Location Northern part of eastern IA, bordering WI and IL map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Bruce Braley (D)
VoteView 151
First elected 2006
2008 margin 64-36 over David Hartsuch
2006 margin 55-43
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 58-51
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 61st most Whites (92.1%)
Assessment Braley won pretty easily vs. a well-funded opponent in 2006. Of course, if no one runs, it's completely safe.
District: IA-02
Location Southeastern IA, bordering MO and IL, including Cedar Rapids map
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Dave Loebsack (D)
VoteView 93
First elected 2006
2008 margin 67-39 over Mariannete Miller Meeks
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-38
Bush margin 2004 44-55
Current opponents Steve Rathje
Demographics 53rd most Whites (92.4%)
Assessment This is an increasingly Democratic district, and Loebsack should be OK
District: IA-03
Location Central IA, including Des Moines map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Leonard Boswell (D)
VoteView 194.5
First elected 1996
2008 margin 56-42 over Kim Schmett
2006 margin 52-46
2004 margin 55-45
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 Bush by 250 votes (of 300,000)
Current opponents None declared. Michael Mahaffey may run.
Demographics 75th most Whites (90.1%)
Assessment Mahaffey ran against Boswell in 1996, and it was close. Boswell has already raised $150K, but this bears watching.
District: IA-04
Location Northern central IA, including Ames map.
Cook PVI Even
Representative Tom Latham (R)
VoteView 290
First elected 1994
2008 margin 61-39 over Becky Greenwald
2006 margin 57-43
2004 margin 61-39
Obama margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 51-48
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 20th most Whites (94.7%), 27th fewest Blacks (0.8%), 54th most rural (49.5%)
Assessment Latham has won easily in the past, but this is a swing district. With the right opponent, who knows?
District: IA-05
Location Western IA, bordering SD and NE, including Sioux City and Council Bluffs map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Steve King (R) May run for Governor
VoteView 419
First elected 2002
2008 margin 60-37 over Rob Hubler
2006 margin 59-36
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 44-54
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 33rd most Whites (93.7%), 18th fewest Blacks (0.6%), 53rd most rural (50.6%)
Assessment Long shot, whether it's King or another Republican; in fact, King (something of a nut, even for the Republicans) may be slightly more vulnerable than a more sane human.
District: KS-01
Location The western 3/4 of KS, bordering NE, OK, and CO map
Cook PVI R + 23
Representative Jerry Moran (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 30-69
Bush margin 2004 72-26
Current opponents 7 Republicans are vying for this seat, the 12th most Republican per Cook PVI; No Democrats so far.
Demographics 61st most rural (47.6%)
Assessment Long shot
District: KS-02
Location Eastern KS, except for Kansas City. Includes Topeka map
Cook PVI R + 9
Representative Lynn Jenkins (R)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 51-46 over Nancy Boyda
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 43-55
Bush margin 2004 59-39
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Jenkins seems safe.
District: KS-03
Location Kansas City and suburbs map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative Dennis Moore (D)
VoteView 196
First elected 1998
2008 margin 56-40 over Rick Jordan
2006 margin 65-34
2004 margin 55-43
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Patricia Barbieri Lightner, maybe others.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Moore, who had close races early in his career, now seems safe.
District: KS-04
Location Eastern part of southern KS, bordering OK, including Wichita map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Todd Tiahrt (R) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-58
Bush margin 2004 64-34
Current opponents At least 2 Republicans are running, and at least 2 Democrats: Donald Betts and Robert Tillman (no site)
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment At first glance, this looks like a long shot; but, prior to 2004, Tiahrt had several close races; and Betts, a state senator, has run before. Could be interesting. |
