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SSP Daily Digest: 7/14

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jul 14, 2009 at 4:04 PM EDT


TX-Gov: Holy crap, Kay Bailey Hutchison is running for Governor of Texas! Of course, everyone with a pulse has known this for most of a year, but it's now official: she's done exploring the race and formally launched her campaign yesterday. She also found a lot of cash under the couch cushions during all those explorations, as she put together $6.7 million during the first half of the year. Factoring in her $8 million transfer from her Senate account, she's sitting on about $12 million CoH. Her primary opponent, incumbent Gov. Rick Perry, raised $4.2 million in the year's first half (a lot, considering he couldn't raise during the legislative session) and has $9.3 million CoH.

FL-Sen: Ordinarily, you probably wouldn't want to spotlight an endorsement from an unlikable jerk with a ridiculous name, but Marco Rubio is trying to rally the nationwide wingnut brigade to his financially faltering campaign ($340K last quarter), so he rolled out an endorsement from ex-House Majority Leader Dick Armey today.

IL-Sen: Now that he's done holding his breath and turning blue until that nasty Andy McKenna would go away, Rep. Mark Kirk has announced that he'll announce that he'll announce that he'll announce his candidacy, or something like that, "in one week." Roll Call also has a look at the consternation that Kirk's messed-up rollout caused both local and national GOP figures, stepping on their attempts to crow "recruitment success."

Meanwhile, people are starting to wonder openly when if ever businessman Chris Kennedy is going to pull the trigger on getting into the Dem field. His hesitation is already landing him in legal hot water: a local police officer filed an FEC complaint against Kennedy for allegedly spending more than $5,000 on campaign outlays without actually having a campaign in place.

NV-Sen: John Ensign (apparently emboldened by fellow C Street dweller Mark Sanford's seat-of-his-pants survival of his own affair) is proceeding full speed ahead, not just planning not to resign but to run for re-election in 2012. TPM wonders out loud if Harry Reid is one of the Dems who've urged Ensign to stay on board.

PA-Sen: The NRSC finally officially endorsed Pat Toomey today. This comes hot on the heels of news that state Sen. Jane Orie (who was being chatted up by the NRSC last week) has decided against running against Pat Toomey in the GOP senate primary. Rumors abound that Rick Santorum, nursing some sort of grudge against Toomey, was the driving force behind the Orie boomlet. Meanwhile, Arlen Specter today announced a 2Q haul of $1.7 million, narrowly topping both Toomey ($1.6 million) and Joe Sestak ($1 million in his House account).

CA-Gov: Meg Whitman is sitting on a ton of cash now, having added $15 million of her own money on top of $6.7 million in private contributions, bringing her total stash to more than $25 million. Her GOP primary rival, Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner anted up $5 million of his own money, along with $1.2 million in contributions, during that same period.

CT-Gov: A strangely quiet fundraising period for Jodi Rell has some wondering if she's going to run for re-election. She raised $20,000 in the most recent quarter, with $71K CoH, outpaced by potential Democratic challengers SoS Susan Bysiewicz ($141K for the quarter) and Stamford mayor Dan Malloy ($147K).

OH-Gov: Betcha didn't know that ex-Rep. John Kasich had an opponent in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Ohio: state Sen. Kevin Coughlin. Well, apparently no one else knew that either, and having gotten nowhere on the fundraising front in the face of party opposition, Coughlin bailed out yesterday.

VA-Gov: Creigh Deeds beat Bob McDonnell in fundraising in June ($3.4 million for Deeds, $1.8 million for McDonnell), but he had to blow through a lot of that in the primary. McDonnell is sitting on a lot more cash on hand, with almost $5 million compared with Deeds' $2.7 million.

CA-11: This is the first I've heard of this guy -- vintner Brad Goehring -- who's planning to challenge Jerry McNerney in the 11th. He's not getting off on the right foot, though, with the appearance of 2006 statements where he shrugged off the problem of 40% of his workforce being undocumented immigrants... not likely to help him much with the nativist core of what's left of the California GOP base.

CA-32: In case you'd forgotten (and most likely you had; I know I did), the general special election for the race to fill the vacant seat left behind by Labor Sec. Hilda Solis is today. Today's election is an afterthought, given that the race was basically won in a heavily-contested May primary in this solid Dem district. Someone named "Chu" is guaranteed to win, although in all likelihood it'll be Democratic Board of Equalization member Judy Chu over Republican Monterey Park city councilor Betty Chu.

FL-12: The Blue Dogs have already weighed in with their first endorsement of the cycle, endorsing Polk Co. Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards in the open 12th district to replace Rep. Adam Putnam, who's running for Florida Agricultural Commissioner.

KY-St. Sen.: Gov. Steve Beshear is seemingly taking a page from Barack Obama, picking off Republican legislators and giving them secure appointive positions instead, opening up their seats for possible Democratic takeove. Sens. Dan Kelly and Charlie Borders were appointed to a judgeship and the Public Service Commission, respectively. Dems are optimistic about retaking both the seats, with state Rep. Robin Webb looking at Borders' seat in Kentucky's NE corner, and former state Rep. Jodie Haydon looking at Kelly's seat in Bourbon territory in the state's center. This will hopefully put a dent in the GOP's 21-16-1 edge.

Census: Census Director Robert Groves was finally confirmed after the Dems used a cloture vote to break the hold on him, leaving him with only eight months to whip the Census into shape. Only 15 GOPers voted against cloture, including Richard Shelby and David Vitter, the ones who'd had the hold on the nomination, and some of the other dead-enders (Brownback, Bunning, Cornyn, Ensign, Sessions, etc.... although, interestingly, Coburn and Kyl voted for cloture). Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann continues her one-woman war on the Census, proposing legislation that would limit the number of question the American Community Survey (the annual supplement, not the 2010 full count) can ask.

Polltopia: PPP is asking for your input on another state to poll, so let 'em hear it. The finalists are California, Iowa, and Louisiana.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/14
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PPP
Louisiana please. Stay on offense.

Exactly. Everyone vote for LA
Iowa, give me a break.  CA only a bit less of a waste of time/money.  

[ Parent ]
I picked CA, actually
Because there are two races there. I'd like to hold off on LA until Melancon actually officially gets in.

[ Parent ]
LA
We've seen a few CA polls, both Senate and Governor. We've only seen 1 LA Sen poll, and that was months ago, before Ensign and Sanford, and Melancon was planning to run for re-election. LA for me. The fact that I live here is another reason for me to vote LA  

[ Parent ]
We're on offense in California
for the governor's race. And Governor Brown (esp. with 2010 redistricting approaching) would be a much bigger help for us, big picture-wise, than Senator Melancon.

[ Parent ]
That be true
Head stuck in the Senate. Must be these hearings fried my brain!

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I think after Alex Sink, Jerry Brown is probably the most-important-to-redistricting dude in the country.

[ Parent ]
Heh
The most important guy for redistricting in 2010 is whatever guy we've never heard of yet, who picks up that last State House seat in Texas.

[ Parent ]
Nope.
Need 2 for control, 1 to split. Even then it doesn't matter.

Both chambers of the leg work on the map, with a governor veto possible. If no map can be made it goes to a 5 person committee. Governor, Lt. Gov., Attorney General, Comptroller, and Speaker of the House. Dems can be as reasonable as they want, Rs can just veto and delay until they are forced to the commission and get to do anything they want 4-1.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Not for the Congressional districts
Unless the law has changed since 2002.

[ Parent ]
In the end
I think that the CA congressional delegation (mostly the Dems) will have the last word on any ambitious redistricting plan. As such a plan would mean some (and perhaps many) of their seats will be made less Dem. Many wont want to 'take that risk'.

[ Parent ]
No evidence of that
California Democrats care about their asses.  They want deep blue seats.  There is no evidence they will weaken any existing seats to try to weaken guys like Dana R.

[ Parent ]
Exactly
Even though its the best thing for their party. They will gain many seats that way. Sure, they may lose a couple here and there in a bad year for the Dems but still, overall, they will really help their party out.  

[ Parent ]
Capps, Harman and Tauscher each won by more than 30%
At the same time neighboring districts went red by 17%, 10% and 5%.

[ Parent ]
IL-Sen (Kirk and Kennedy), CT-Gov, FL-12, KY-SSen
IL-Sen:
1. Haha, Kirk "turning blue".
2. Let's hope this dissuades Kennedy from getting in; I suspect that the only candidate weaker than him in the general would be Burris himself.

CT-Gov: How good is Dan Malloy as a candidate?  And any word on Ned Lamont?

FL-12: Is Lori Edwards our strongest candidate in the area?

KY-SSen: Who's the "1" in "21-16-1"?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


KY-SSen: The "1" is an independent.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K...

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Lori Edwards
is our only candidate in that race, unless there's some no-$ crank running. Polk County (Lakeland, Winter Haven, etc.) is a big place, giving her a constituency of almost 500,000, and it's pretty well contiguous with the boundaries of the 12th, so she's well-positioned... and it's something like R+6 in an agricultural part of Florida, so, being realistic, a Blue Dog would probably the best we could get here.

[ Parent ]
Oh, I don't mind it being a blue dog.
First step anywhere is to get a Democrat elected in the first place.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
I think she's the best possible candidate
There's only one Democrat, who would also have some county wide name recognition, on the County Commission. Lori Edwards was also a state Representative for an Auburndale district, giving her extra strength in part of the US House district. I think she has a great chance to win the seat and don't see her getting less than at least 47% of the vote.

[ Parent ]
I think I'm going to try to volunteer for her
while I'm home better the bar exam and starting my job in NYC.

[ Parent ]
MN-Gov
Looks like Jim Ramstad won't run as either an R or an I.

"I am humbled by the tremendous outpouring of support from people across party lines, but I have decided not to become a candidate," said Ramstad, in a news release.  "Although I plan to continue my public service, it won't be as Governor," he added.  "I hope whoever is elected Governor will bring people together and work in a bipartisan way to address the serious problems facing our state," said Ramstad.

I don't want to get too optomistic but he was the only real big threat.


Good News
I wonder if this will persuade Mad Michelle to toss her nuts into the ring.

IL-Sen: I have a feeling Kennedy may not run at all. He's mulled previous runs (Blago's seat in '02 and IL-10 in 2000 when it was an open seat) only to back out.  


[ Parent ]
You're gonna love her nuts!
No wait, it's just Vince's nuts.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
via politicalwire
former Sen. Mike DeWine of Ohio, last seen losing 44-56% to the supposedly too-liberal Sherrod Brown, is planning on running for something next year.  People assume governor, I don't really know what else he would run for.

The GOP is doing good at recruiting well-known names this coming election...whether they are viable well-known names is yet to be determined.

off-topic: considering that we have four House pickups more or less in the bag (Cao's, Castle's, Kirk's, and Gerlach's), how many people here still think that we are likely to have a net loss of House seats next year?


House
We will certainly have a net loss in the House unless our recruiting picks up big time, but with things like this happening it might high single digits.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
I thought DeWine was going for Attorney General
I don't see the point of him going for Governor against Kasich.

I think we will lose seats; there are just too many freshman/sophomore Dems in tough districts for them all to survive -- just on the top tier of Republican targets you have Bright, Minnick, Griffith, Perriello, Kratovil, and Melancon's open seat. Then there's Markey, Kosmas, Grayson, Marshall, Schauer, Childers, Kilroy, Dahlkemper, Nye, Driehaus, Teague, Massa, Kissell, Arcuri, Murphy, etc. etc. Our target list is much smaller -- Kirk, Castle, Cao, Gerlach, Calvert, Young, Terry, McCotter, and Putnam's open seat. That's about it.


[ Parent ]
More California Rs?
I agree with your basic premise that the Democrats are extremely likely to lose some seats in the House in the midterm elections - a few if meaningful Federal health insurance is passed and the economy is good, 20 or more if health reform is voted down and the economy sucks. But:

Aren't more California Republican seats going to be challenged? And what about the remaining R seats in New York?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Yes, we have some vulnerable R's in California.
Lungren, Calvert especially, and Bilbray are our main targets.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
A wash
I agree we have more vulnerable Dems than the GOP has for its members going in, but we've also done a better job at insulating them.  Until we know opponents, I don't know how to gauge any of this, but I doubt more than eight or so (Bright, Minnick, Griffith, Melancon, maybe a few others) will lose for us and I suspect we can pick up roughly the same.  Unless they get a solid moderate for Markey, I think she's solid.  Ditto Teague, Kratovil, and a few others.  I don't think retreads like Chabot will take on much traction either.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Retreads
Chabot: Possible, but not likely.
Stivers: Likely (to get traction, not necessarily win though).
Harri Anne Smith: possible, more likely than Jay Love.
Harris: Unlikely.
Sali: Unlikely.
Walberg: Unlikely.
Tedisco: Unlikely.

Cazayoux: Possible.
Carmouche: Possible.
Wulsin: Unlikely.
Krikorian (if as D): Quite possible.
Segall: Likely.
Tinklenberg: Possible.
Powers: Unlikely.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
DeWine is no threat
He'll get creamed by Rich Cordray if he runs for AG. If he runs for gov, there will be a brutal primary between him and Kasich.

As for the House, I do think we'll have some losses but not that many. I expect there will be a "correction", but I think we'll be better off for it. We'll lose seats we have no business having in exchange for seats we should have had a while ago.


[ Parent ]
A net loss of seats
might not be too bad but can't realistically be painted as positive in any way, I don't think.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
The If/Then
If we gain Senate seats
and the House Seats lost is 10 or under

I think we did pretty well.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Totally agree on that
It's just that a net loss of seats in the House, per se, is almost impossible to be beneficial.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Honestly
it wouldn't be such a bad thing to lose guys like Bright, Minnick, and Griffith if we are getting new progressives in the four seats I mentioned as likely Dem pickups.  We'd have a much better working majority and the Blue Dogs would have a lot less power.

[ Parent ]
My main reason for wanting to keep them is to give their states a sort of connection to the national Democratic Party
even if a tenuous connection.

This is probably especially the case with Idaho, because, unlike Alabama, where we're on the decline, in Idaho we have tons of room to grow, by making a good impression on the voters there.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
Right
It's just that I think a situation in which the party lost a net of 0 seats, with Blue Dog losses offset by more liberal wins, is implausible. Now, watch me be disproven by a turn of events, but my feeling is that if things are going well, the Blue Dogs will win, too, and if things are going poorly, the marginal districts currently represented by Republicans won't produce more liberal Democratic victories.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
The GOP targets
Are quite significantly Democratic districts. Dems were doing well nationally in 2008 but still lost four seats in Repub leaning territory.

[ Parent ]
One was an implosion anyway
And another could be partly explained by a certain Bad spoiler candidate.

So there you go, we lost 2.5 seats or so.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
I'll give my opinions, throwing LA-02 in there also.
FL-16: Stupid shenanigans by Maphoney. I was not at all sorry to see him go.

KS-02: Boyda made the mistakes of not accepting DCCC money or going negative.

LA-02: We'd still have this seat had Jefferson not run.

LA-06: Spoiler independent candidate.

TX-22: This was closer than I expected, and am thinking that if Lampson had run a better campaign, he might still be a congressman.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Oh, I forgot about LA-02.
FL-16: Same here.  Self-destructed and radioactive candidate.
KS-02: This is one race we could have won.
LA-02: We deserved this one, frankly, because we couldn't get rid of Dollar Bill ourselves.
LA-06: As I said before, that was just Bad.
TX-22: The other race we could have won.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
LA-02 is a Dem seat
I was talking about seats that lean to the other side. If Dems can't win open seats in IL-10 (D+6), DE-AL (D+7) and PA-06 (D+4) it won't have anything to do with environment but poor candidates and terrible campaigns.

[ Parent ]
also via politicalwire
DeWine plans to announce next Wednesday.

[ Parent ]
DeWine
Is moderate enough to win statewide in OH (although his stance on gun control is actually to the left of the state overall) but for some reason the state just doesnt like him. Even GOP conservatives dont like him.

[ Parent ]
Why Ohioans don't like DeWine
There's probably a couple reasons why he's so unpopular:

1) His membership in the Gang of 12 plus his liberal votes on issues like ANWR, patients' bill of rights, and other things irritated the Blackwell wing of the party.

2) His wing of the party, the moderate Rhodes-Voinivich wing, was seriously weakened by the Coingate scandal and by a declining membership (all the younger Rs fall more into the Blackwell-Kasich camp, save for LaTourette)

3) He's not especially bright. There was, of course, that imfamous video of him snoozing through the Iran-Contra hearings. Plus, the infamous photo-shopped smoke-in-the-WTC ad. There's a reason that hilarious "The More We Get Together" ad with him and Dubya was so effective: it played into people's view of him as a doofus.


[ Parent ]
Net loss guarenteed
Though if the GOP get into double figures they will have done well.

[ Parent ]
fl-sen
there might be a crack in crist's armor.  right now florida unemployment is around 10.5%, about a point higher than the nation as a whole.  these high numbers are bringing down governors like strickland, culver, and are hurting our chances in mich. and penn.  considering the recession started in florida before it did nationwide, (early to mid 2007) and crist has been in charge for all of it, he will have to get blamed eventually.  if that happens, and rubio and meek paint it like crist is quitting whenhe's needed, ala palin then there might be a weakness.  especially if the numbers get worse.  his chances of getting the nomination or elected would be sig hurt if umeploymen hits 12-14%.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

CA-32
Judy Chu 61.12% 8490
Betty Chu 33.28% 4623


Didn't even remember that was tonight
Forgone conclusion, right?

[ Parent ]
Yep.
6.7 % reporting

Chu (D) 61.28% 8684
Chu (R) 33.15% 4698


[ Parent ]
CA-32
83% of precincts reporting.

Judy Chu 62.32%
Betty Chu 32.47%


And the chu-chu train arrives at its destination: another Democratic victory.


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
KY- St. Sen
An interesting development is that The Bloodhorse magazine, the official publication of the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association, recently published an editorial calling on the industry to work to put the Democrats in charge of the state senate.  This is noteworthy for two reasons.  First, the Thoroughbred industry is one of the most important industries in the state, and second this is the first time I can ever recall this magazine taking a political stand, and I've been a subscriber for nearly 30 years (and it's a weekly magazine, so that's a lot of editorials!).

I would expect that the industry as a whole tends to lean right, with people like William Farish of Lanes End farm, who is a close friend of the Bushes and was Ambassador the the Courth of Saint James under "43", but there are also prominent Democrats like former governor Brereton Jones, who operates one of the most prominent farms, Airdrie Stud.


What's
their argument for supporting the Democrats?

Thanks for that interesting post.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]

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