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SSP Daily Digest: 7/3

by: DavidNYC

Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 1:25 PM EDT


AK-Gov: George Stephanopoulos (on Twitter) thinks there might be some sort of announcement from Sarah Palin this afternoon, possibly that she won't run for re-election as governor. This wouldn't surprise me, and if so, not a bad time to bury the news.

MN-Sen: Al Franken is going to be sworn in on Tuesday. Just seeing this photo makes me excited.

MN-06: You know things are bad for Michele Bachmann when... well, every day is bad for her. But things are especially bad when members of her own party start telling her to STFU. "Boycotting the constitutionally mandated Census is illogical, illegal and not in the best interest of our country," wrote Patrick McHenry, Lynn Westmoreland and John Mica, members of the subcommittee which oversees the census. And these guys are some pretty wingnutty mouthbreathers. Weapons-grade wingnut Jason Chaffetz (the only other GOPer on the same cmte) refused to sign the letter.

NH-Sen: Paul Hodes pulled in an improved 725K for the quarter - but I still think he can do better. Meanwhile, a piece of shit poll from UNH shows Kelly Ayotte "beating" Hodes 39-35. Why such harsh language? Because UNH continues its crappy track record of unacceptable samples - this time, they have it as 32R, 25D, even though there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state of New Hampshire. Pathetic. And in other news, former Gov. Stephen Merrill (R), who served in the mid-90s right before Jeanne Shaheen, has declined to run for the open Senate seat.

PA-07: Republican businessman Steven Welch has made it official - he will run for the 7th CD seat, which may or may not be open, depending upon what Rep. Joe Sestak does. I can't understand why Welch would pick a holiday weekend to launch his campaign, though. (Thanks, Pan.)

TX-Gov/AG: Former Travis County DA Ronnie Earle - best known these days as the guy who indicted Tom DeLay - just filed papers to run for statewide office. He hasn't yet said whether he'll seek the governor's mansion (which would put him on a collision course will fellow Dem Tom Schieffer) or the Attorney General's job. Either way, Earle can start raising money now.

VA-05: A Virginia TV station is refusing to air an NRCC ad against Tom Perriello. While the station has remained mum about its reasons, Factcheck.org slammed the ad for its inaccuracies about the Waxman-Markey climate change bill. TV & radio stations are open to legal liability when they run third-party ads (they are immune when running candidate ads), so the only reason to nix a spot is because your lawyers tell you to. Nice to see the NRCC fumbling out of the gate. Perriello, meanwhile, is offering a feisty defense of his vote.

Ads: A coalition of liberal groups is airing "thank you" ads in seventeen congressional districts, which include some potentially vulnerable Dems who voted for the climate change bill. The list: B. Markey, Boyd, Grayson, Kosmas, Hill, Halvorson, Chandler, Kratovil, Peters, Schauer, Hodes, Maffei, Kilroy, Space, Perriello, Giffords & Kagen.

DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 7/3
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UNH
Do not trust the UNH polls, they had Carol Shea porter down by double digits and Jeb bradley over 50% and Carol Shea porter won. They have shown in accurate polling in 2004, 2006, and even in 2008 showing Shaheen barely beating Sununu when she ended up defeating him by 7 points. Based on demographics alone Hodes is very likely to beat Kelly Ayotte. She is an awful AG and would get crushed by Hodes.

Not that I'm defending UNH
But their last poll before the election showed Shaheen ahead by 6 right before the election. I think this particular poll makes absolutely no sense (and shouldn't be seen as being anything but a joke), but their final poll before the Senate election wasn't out of line (and their presidential numbers were right on the spot).

Visit Election Inspection for first-rate political analysis.

[ Parent ]
At the end of races,
UNH does daily tracking polls, which tend to be more accurate, b/c the frequency of them overcomes the horribly random and small sampling.

But the non daily-trackers suffer from these wild swings due to not accounting for accurate sampling of registered voters.

The Concord Monitor used R2K last cycle, and their sampling was really very on target in many layers, geographic, party id, etc...

Blue Hampshire - Defeating Republicans since 2006.


[ Parent ]
NH-Sen
How expensive is NH as far as Senate races go? I know that the Shaheen-Sununu race racked up big numbers, but that is not a good measure because 1) it had an incumbent and 2) it was a "clash of the titans" contest. Here, Hodes doesn't even have an opponent yet.  

2004
John Lynch and Craig Benson each spent $3 million on the gubernatorial race.

[ Parent ]
(Which is not a Senate election
but aside from Shaheen/Sununu, there aren't many other recent statewide contests to compare 2010 to.)

[ Parent ]
How about Shaheen/Sununu 2002?
Sununu raised 3.6m and Shaheen raised 5.8m. Fairly large amounts of dough, but I don't think Hodes' fundraising will really pick up until he has a flesh and blood opponent.

NH-Sen in 2004 doesn't count, though - Gregg was barely contested, and he raised 3.3m compared to his challenger's $177,000.  


[ Parent ]
Perriello
Thanks for linking that article. I love Perriello, and I hope his fearless progressive politics don't lose him reelection. We really need more good Democrats like him.

I remember reading somewhere
that Perriello was one of the top freshmen to be able to vote no against the bill if Pelosi and crew were to have enough votes to give some of them passes and easier re-elections.  Maybe the article just listed him as one of the freshmen to watch but I dunno, I'd rather the article say Periello will be voting yes regardless because it's legislation we need, etc.

He is still one of my fave freshmen though.


[ Parent ]
if hodes had raised 2M by now
he wouldn't have a "flesh and blood" opponent.  does he have any money left over from his house account?

He had a little bit
Which, iirc, he transfered over in Q1.

[ Parent ]

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