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MA-Gov: Deval, Deval, Toil and Trouble

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 7:54 PM EDT

Rasmussen (6/24, likely voters):

Deval Patrick (D-inc): 40
Christy Mihos (R): 41
Deval Patrick (D-inc): 41
Charlie Baker (R): 36
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Add Deval Patrick of Massachusetts to the list of northeastern Governors that nobody much likes. Patrick's job approvals are 42% approve (including 11% strongly approve) and 57% disapprove (including 32% strongly disapprove). He finds himself in a dead heat with businessman Christy Mihos (who garnered 7% of the vote in 2006 as an independent, but is running as a Republican this time) and barely leading Charlie Baker (whom I'll admit I've never heard of before today; he's the CEO of health care provider Harvard-Pilgrim, and is rumbling about the race while not having taken any steps yet). Mihos is well-known with 46/35 favorables, while Baker is only at 37/27 with 35% unknown.

Patrick represents a state that's heavily Democratic enough that his opposition may already be polling near their ceilings... but given the state's recent tolerance of moderate Republican governors (and its bamboozlement by Mitt Romney), he can't even begin to count on the state's lean to pull it out for him. One other item that gives me some confidence about this race, though, is that Patrick has hired David Plouffe to run his re-election campaign, while Christy Mihos has hired... Dick Morris.

RaceTracker: MA-Gov

Crisitunity :: MA-Gov: Deval, Deval, Toil and Trouble

Tags: Charlie Baker, Christy Mihos, Deval Patrick, MA-Gov, Polls, (All Tags)

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MA-Gov: Deval, Deval, Toil and Trouble | 11 comments

Dick Morris?

You mean this A+ student of horse-race politics? I feel much better about Deval Patrick's chances all of the sudden.

But what if he does step aside? Would people convalesce around Lt. Gov. Tim Murray, or would it be a 5-ring frakus?

by: Nico @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 19:44:57 PM CDT

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Patrick and Murray

I don't think there is a chance in hell that Patrick will drop out. And given that he just basically got what he wanted from the legislature, I think he is in a better situation than the poll might suggest. However I can tell you that if he were to quit, central and western MA democrats would rally around Murray. People outside of 495 like having someone who cares about the farther reaches of the state.

Personally, I like Tim and I think he is smart and a good politician. I would like him to have a little more time before he needs to run by himself so I am fondly hoping we can get Deval back for another term.

by: cwlidz @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 20:12:10 PM CDT

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Morris

Hes fun to listen to but his whole Condi vs. Hillary 08 prediction made him lose all credibility to me. Maybe I should have even before then but I didnt pay much attention to him before then. Condi had no shot whatsoever of getting the nomination. And never will. Not that she cares to be Pres. In fact she probably was laughing the entire time Morris was predicting it.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 21:58:35 PM CDT

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On the contrary

You should always listen to what Morris has to say. He is an excellent weathervane. Look in the exact opposite direction to which he is pointing and you will find the correct answer every single time.

by: conspiracy @ Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 06:57:17 AM CDT

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ah, another reason

Democrats should have never nominated Patrick in the first place. He's been disastorously unpopular as governor so far.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 23:13:12 PM CDT

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Massachusetts Liberal

I am a liberal from Massachusetts who has always voted democrat. I voted against Weld. I voted for Harshberger against Celluci, I voted for O'brien against Romney. I voted for Deval Patrick when he ran against Kerry Healey. However, I will not be voting for Deval Patrick again. He has done a terrible job as governor and I have seen my personal life affected by his crappy performance as governor. I will be voting against him in the primary (hopefully Tim Cahill will run). If Patrick wins the primary, I will have to vote Republican. If I lived in New Jersey, I would vote for Corzine rather than Christie however, Deval Patrick needs to go!

by: jmartin4s @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 23:27:59 PM CDT

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Redistricting

And in a state like MA no one can possibly use the 'redistricting' argument to elect/re-elect a Dem governor. It really all boils down to Patrick vs. his challenger. And even though any Republican will be to Patrick's right (even if Linc Chafee were to move to MA and run as a Republican) many will see it as a choice between an incompetent Patrick vs. a competent (or at least potentially competent, as no one can possibly know for sure until they are elected) sane, moderate Republican. If the GOP will nominate a moderate and they probably will.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 01:47:42 AM CDT

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What spacifically do you object to?

I'm also in MA and I'll be voting for Patrick again, but against Tim "Slot Parlours in Warehouses" Cahill and against most likely the Republican nominee as well.

by: Marcus @ Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 09:10:17 AM CDT

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Patrick didn't win it...

The Republicans gave him the governorship on a silver platter. Not only was 2006 the year when Republicans got pink slips, Romney was badmouthing the state he was governor in to GOP voters in Iowa and South Carolina. Healey ran her campaign Karl Rove style by accusing Patrick of being friendly to rapists. The Big Dig accident when a piece of the wall fell on a car and killed someone happened on Romney and Healey's watch. And last of all, Romney was a failure as a governor.

Democrats could of run anyone that year and they still would of crushed Healey.

by: ehstronghold @ Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 00:39:37 AM CDT

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What exactly has Patrick done that is so bad?

by: Tekzilla @ Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 08:26:38 AM CDT

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another Massachusetts liberal

I have to agree that Deval has done an awful job so far....but he's been on an uptick lately getting pension reform and a major transportation overhaul passed through the legislature. If he can keep that up, he may yet survive.

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

by: skywrnchsr509 @ Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 09:07:51 AM CDT

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MA-Gov: Deval, Deval, Toil and Trouble | 11 comments