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AR-Gov race 2014: Looking down the road.

by: ARDem

Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 11:03 PM EDT


In politics, you're never going to get too good of results looking way down the road.  But hey, that never stops us from trying, and my home state, Arkansas, is one of those fun little rural states where everyone knows everyone else and what folks are up to, which makes prognosticating easier.  Already there are signs of what's to come in the governor's race for 2014, once Beebe is done and moving on.  And since I've been doing some writing on one of the potential candidates on my own blog as of late I thought I'd do a quick write up.
ARDem :: AR-Gov race 2014: Looking down the road.
The three candidates constantly mentioned for the 2014 race are Attorney General Dustin McDaniel, Lt. Governor Bill Halter, and Congressman Mike Ross.

McDaniel is a former state representative from Jonesboro, where I now live. He's a lawyer and a former cop, and he has a huge base here in northeast Arkansas.  He's generally considered fairly liberal by Arkansas standards, and he touted his prochoice position in order to win the AG primary in '06.  But he has some faults-his ethics bill he proposed has a huge flaw in it in that it doubled the amount of money legislators could draw as a salary from campaign funds, and he's gotten some criticism over using the state police helicopter improperly.

Halter worked in Bill Clinton's administration before running for Governor in '06, then dropping down to the Lt. Gov race.  He pissed a lot of people off in that campaign, coming in with a lot of out of state money, making no effort to woo the state machine, and there was some significant opposition to his signature issue, the state lottery.  However, while he certainly doesn't carry himself with the humility and down home mannerisms that Arkansans expect of their politicians, there is something to be said for Halter being a different kind of politician.  He doesn't think like the rest of the establishment, he's definately more liberal for one, and his move on the lottery was largely opposed by the entire state establishment who were all quick to take credit for its passage.

Then there's Mike Ross, the Congressman from southern Arkansas.  Ross is probably the most conservative of the three, and his votes on hate crimes and cap-and-trade the lately have made that much clear.  He thought about running in '06 but yeilded to his old mentor Beebe, stating he couldn't take the pay cut.  He could make the electability argument I guess, though the other two guys won statewide elections fairly easily and look to do so again next year, so I'm not sure it works.

So those are our three potential candidates.  I'm hoping someone else jumps in personally as none of these three appeal to me.  But we've got a long way to go until then, so we'll see what happens.

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While the Dem bench in Arkansas is deep
there's no doubt the state is trending red, hard, on the national level. While Beebe should be reelected easily next year, do you think the Democrats will still be strong at the state level in 2014? I know that, in other southern states like Georgia, Oklahoma, and Louisiana, the Democrats went from all-powerful to outnumbered very rapidly, sometimes in one or two election cycles.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

Two reasons Arkansas is not as red as you think
One big clinton fallout, Hillary would have one. And two, you have to consider that thisis one state that Obama invested nothing, nada, in. Not during the primary, not during the general. He did nothing to combat misconeptions or put the state in play. Its no surprise he lost significant ground from 2004.

The state itself is highly Democratic. Note two liberal candidates won against Republican State Senators and won by landslides, (Halter and McDaniel), Beebe won easily, Pryor ran unopposed in 2008, and McCain's coattails did not transfer to gains for the state GOP. A few state house seats, several of whom I couldn't believe Democrats won in 2006, I mean come on? Bill Pritchard's seat? No senate seats.

The truth is outside of a few Little Rock suburbs and northwest Arkansas the GOP has no base. Voters are conservative and they may not always like National Democrats, sometimes never, (not since Clinton), but they have a stigma against Republicans and really like the leadership of the center-right State Democratic party.

The GOP could be doing better than it is, but, luckily for Democrats they are highly incompetent and Republicans have no base.

I don't think the state is trending Democratic at all. If you look at a linear progression of state Republican's political power since the 1990s, when most states shifted right in the south you see them peak and collapse. Dickey and Hutchinson lost largely because they took leads in trying to impeach Clinton. But back to my main point, they lost two statewide positions, (Governor and Lieutenant Governor), four state  house seats, one state senate seat, a Senator's site, and one conggressional district. Democrats have continued making gains the past 10 years despite what happened in therest of the south. democrats are stronger in Arkansas now than they have been at any time sense the 1980s.

What's most telling is that no Republican has come within ten percentage points of winning a statewide race since 2002. Even Halter won 55-44. And Asa Hutchinson, the last-standing scion of a monolithic political family in Arkansas lost 40-55 to Mike Beebe. Mark Pryor went unopposed in 2008. Do you get my drift?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
I'm feeling like it'll be
McDaniel taking the good ol' boy angle with the backing of the traditional Democratic powers, (Jimmie Lou Fisher, Mark Pryor, Blache Lincoln, and likely Mike Beebe as well), while Halter will run, (and there's no doubt that he won't, his ego is huge, only the 100% liklihood of career ending, bridge burning, curshing defeats kept him from running against Beebe in 2006 and Mark Pryor in 2008), from a fiery outsider vantage demanding further reforms.

I fear that this will weaken the state Democratic party, especially if Halter becomes the nominee and is an open progressive. He'd win, but I feel he would drive away and alienate some traditional Democratic consitituients and hurt the Democrats bottomline in the long run, especially if he clashes with the state establishment.

You forgot to mention Halter is very rich, very very rich, and could spend plenty of his own money.

I supported...god i can't remember his name. Oh well. I didn't like Tim Wooldridge because he was big dino. I liked the young, charismatic, populist former State Representative from Northwest Arkansas who narrowly lost to John Boozman in an unexpectedly competitive 2001 special election. He didn't make the runoff because he was snubbed bythe establishment, who then lost becuase Halter got the progressive vote. Susky was worse than Wooldridge, I couldn't stand his positions, I wondered why he didn't run as a Republican so I was very happy that McDaniel narrowly beat him. That was the last Arkansas election I covered first hand. I moved from Arkansas a month or two after that, and have been slightly disconnected to it since. All I know is that Beebe is a great politician as he tells everyone what they want to hear.

Anyway, to quit rambling, I'm actually hoping to avoid a competitive primary. Obama could appoint Halter to be Commissioner of Social Security, (he was Deputy Commissioner before), and that would get him out of the way, because, hey, how could he refuse that kind of position. If he does run I'd prefer to avoid a state-splitting primary all together and have McDaniel run for LG and "wait his turn" so to say. He could do it. He's be what? 42? He could run for those two terms and then run for two of his own and still only be 58 in 2030, 60 in 2032 if he wanted to run for Pryors seat if it was open. But that's getting to far ahead of myself. I just hope that Halter moderates himself and moves further to the center to keep a united Arkansas Democratic party in 2014.

So you're from Jonesboro then? I'd have never have guessed that. I would said Little Rock. So you're in the "Crowley's Ridge" geographical region of Arkansas then, lol.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


Actually, I'm originally from Wynne, and I have Forrest City roots as well.
You hit on a lot of good points here.  The state may have a conservative streak, but there are also populist and reform streaks that run deep, and the state has elected liberals before.  In fact, I'd say that Sid McMath, Win Rockefeller, and Dale Bumpers were all comparatively more liberal than any of the office holders we have today.

I don't think a primary will weaken the Democrats.  A lot of people said that about the Lt. Gov primary in 06, but it didn't happen, and from what I saw that year the whole state seems to love a good primary.  Arkansans have fun with elections after all.

The candidate you're thinking of was Mike Haythorn.  I met him once and he invited me and a friend to dinner with him-great guy and a lot of people wish he'd won that one.  Wooldridge was a joke.  When it came out that he'd introduced a bill to restore public hangings every black man, woman, and child in Forrest City stormed down to the polls for Halter.

Lastly, there is one great candidate that came out of 2006 that I'd really like to see run for governor, and that's our state treasurer Martha Shoffner.  Jimmie Lou Fisher came so close and it broke so many hearts-I know women who still tear up or shake their fists thinking about it-and Shoffner is a proven campaigner and is doing great as our treasurer, she certainly hasn't picked up any of the baggage the afforementioned clowns have.

By the way ArkDem, I was wondering if I could drop you an e-mail.  Got something I'd like to discuss with you if you don't mind.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com


[ Parent ]
sure, and I'm feeling better about my memory
I was thinking his name might have been Mike Hathorn. Close, lol.

Martha Shoffner? Eh, I supported her opponent cause he was younger, that's all I remember, it was low key. She's certainly better than Gus Wingfield. And Jimmie Lou is simply one of the most beloved state politicians, especially among women, no one else could have played so well against Huckabee. For good reason, while writing her wikipedia article I needed information, such as "was it Nancy Hall who came before you?" and got a personal reply from Mrs. Fisher answering all my questions.

I still like McDaniel more, but I'm waiting to see where his very public divorce hurt him. I'd hate to see him and Halter butt heads because one of them would lose and that would be a shame.

Orval Faubus was also a pretty good governor, very progressive except for racial issues where he was too afraid to take aprogressive stance. I can't forgive Bumpers for defeating Fulbright however.

If you want to contact me try waalkwriter@gmail.com, that's my primary email address.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
Alright, I'll drop you a line soon.
Yeah I met Mac Cambell, Shoffner's opponent a few times myself.  He's a good guy, but I thought Shoffner had better experience and I would like our statewide officials to be a little more diverse.  That said, she's done a fantastic job as treasurer, she keeps her head down and does her best to stay in touch.  Remember those phony bills with her face on them?  You can redeem those at her office for a cup of coffee and she's always happy to sit and talk with you.  McDaniel and Halter are both egomaniacs, and McDaniel now has some ethical issues and Halter is...well, Bill Halter.

Ok...stopping now before I get to rambling.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com


[ Parent ]
really? what's going on?
and how could a 38 year old former police officer be that big an ego maniac?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
For the most part
I'll let John Brummet take that one.  http://arkansasnews.com/2009/0...

Something Brummet doesn't cover is his ethics reform bill that doubled the salary state legislators could draw from campaign donations (hasn't passed yet).

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com


[ Parent ]
what are his political views
I don't trust the article very much, seems to misrepresent things and demonize very small, minor issues. Its really ridiculous to get high and mighty like he did over issues of microscopic expenditures which might be wasteful but are perks that come with the job and with a powerful job in any large and powerful organization, whether government or business.

As far as ridiculing McDaniel? I think he's an idiot. It makes sense for his office to have investigative powers if they have to handle the appeals for capitol murder cases.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus


[ Parent ]
You mean Brummet?
He's one of the most notable liberals in the state.  I got to disagree with you though, I think the lapses he pointed out for McDaniel are pretty sobering reminders of Huckabee's behavior.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
blah, lets agree to disagree
he reminds of Drew Pritt, a prickish liberal who doesn't think rationally and makes too big a deal of anything, actually that's like most liberals, and in that fashion very strong liberals are just like very strong conservatives, I've begun to notice more and more the behaviors i detest among conservatives, among them.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Hardly.
How on Earth did you live in Arkansas and not ever read a newspaper article by John Brummet?  He's probably the most notable liberal media voice we have.  Papers all across the state run his stuff and he's hardly prickish, let alone anything like Drew Pritt.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
ok, I'll trust you
I read the Democrat-Gazette, my only paper. I remember several really good progressives, but he was not one of them. There was a Gene somebody, (terrible with names), and others that i enjoyed reading and some i couldn't tolerate. A guy from Eureka springs who was absolutely nuts conservative.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Against two progressives
Would Mike Ross not have the advantage? As he is a pro-life Blue Dog. Although maybe part of the battle will also be regional. Though I do not know where Halter is from.

it'd be all three regions
southern Arkansas, eastern Arkansas, and the Little Rock area. Halter is from Little Rock, the central city of the central region, Ross is from El Dorado, the major city in southern Arkansas and birthplace of Murphy oil and thebook the outsiders, and McDaniel is from the major city in eastern Arkansas, Jonesboro. Kind of ironic really, all we'd need is Sue Madison from Fayetteville to have all the major cities covered.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Wow
This really could be a regional battle then. I am sure itd be fun to watch. In 22 of the last 30 years Arkansas has had a Gov. with 'southern AR roots'. With those being just Clinton and Huckabee.  

[ Parent ]

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