Ventura County

So it's very conservative? I find that somewhat surprising.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 21:58:45 PM UTC

No, it's swing

Obama won the county 55-43. Foy is conservative, nonetheless. (His Board of Supervisors district is based in Simi Valley, a city with a conservative reputation (i.e. where Rodney King got tried), but he still barely won election to his Board of Supervisors seat. In fact, Peter Dantona, the Dem I mentioned in today's digest, was the guy who almost beat him.)

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by: Crisitunity @ Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 22:30:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dantona

   I thought his first name was Jim. He explored running for State Senate last year but dropped the bid so former Assemblymember Hannah-Beth Jackson could have a shot at it. Jackson lost to Tony Strickland (Gaah!) by less than 2000 votes. Are you sure his name is Peter? (not that it matters too much)

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

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by: Zack from the SFV @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 07:15:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, it's Jim

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by: Crisitunity @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 15:05:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've thought for a while

that Brown should be favoured reasonably strongly here.  He's run statewide before (many times), and his support gets stronger and stronger the older the voters get, which is a tremendous advantage since, generally speaking, likelihood of voting increases with age.

I'm pro-Brown, myself; he's got a pretty good record overall, comes across as very competent, and his returning for another term would be a fun story.  I really dislike Newsom; I agree with his civil rights positions, but I don't think he's been at all effective in his advocacy for them.

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by: SC @ Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 22:56:23 PM UTC

Given the penchant Californians have

for electing republicans (patic), pray to God that Foy gets in.

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by: fai calif @ Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 23:07:38 PM UTC

Poizner is down right liberal

all things considered.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 23:12:45 PM UTC

Poizner is the most electable, most qualified candidate

Steve Poizner's positions can best be described as conservative on most all issues and moderate on a few- for the benefit of those who would rather talk labels than issues.

If you take a look at the resumes and records of all the candidates of either party, he's clearly the most qualified to lead California at this time.

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by: Nicholas @ Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 23:53:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Im getting confused

Ive heard many describe Poizner as conservative, many as moderate and some as even liberal. Guess I should just do alot of research to form my own opinion ;).

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 00:00:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

ok, here's what I know

He almost won in a 70-30 Kerry house district in 2004. He ran as a reform candidate and I donated to him to beat Cruz Bustamante. He refused to accept money from the industry he would regulating; insurance, while, (and this is the number I remember reading), Cruz got 60% of his campaign funds from that industry, and was trying to play musical chairs.

He ran as a reformer. He appears to be fairly pro-environment, pro-choice, pro-stem cell research, pro-gay marriage, (i think), and fiscally conservative. On the whole, from what i've heard. But he has some baggage, he fought hard to defeat Proposition1a which would have created a rainy day fund to prevent further budget fiascos, (at least from my reading of it). In any case he appears to be a business conservative.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 01:08:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

1A was hated on both sides of the Californian political spectrum

Pretty much everybody worked hard to defeat it, except Democratic legislative leaders and Arnold Schwarzenegger.

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by: mkpowers @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 03:09:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

why? it seems like the same kind

of commonsense backup plan that has been successfully put in place in other states and been very popular in fact.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 05:28:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

1A also included a spending cap.

A similar measure passed in Colorado a few years back and had been a disaster for them.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 14:30:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm fairly certain Poizner is part of the anti-tax whackos

He's also in bed with business, obviously, which does not particularly endear me to him. I'm extremely liberal, but I have no idea who I'm going to vote for in the 2010 CA Dem primary. I was hoping for a non-Brown, non-Newsom option but it doesn't look like there will be one.

I think Jerry Brown can steamroll Poizner in a general - but  I also think that, if there's a movement conservative in the primary, that Poizner can't win the primary, splitting the moderate vote with Meg Whitman.

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by: mkpowers @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 03:13:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tom Campbell is the best candidate

hands down, either party.

And likely would make the best Governor... which once again merely reflects on the woeful Democratic Party of California.

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by: tommypaine @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 06:15:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Campbell

To tell you the truth I've taken a liking to Campbell as well. He's very liberal when it comes to social issues like gay marriage as well. He also was a congressman in the South Bay. Unfortunately he's one of those candidates that you can like but will never win.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 15:28:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ahahahahahahahahaha... no

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by: Kanamit @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 03:10:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

sorry, guess my impression

must have been wrong.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 05:29:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

2010

I'm going to be able to vote by then, going to be an exciting year in California, especially for a political junkie like myself. Also I live in the Bay Area, where Newsom and Brown come from. The Republicans seem determined to clear the primary field for Whitman in hopes that she would have a better shot in the general election. Especially if Brown and Newsom bloody each other up during the primary.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 23:21:25 PM UTC

I can't wait also.

Hopefully I'll be back home in California by the time of the elections.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 23:51:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Moderate republicans

In California it can mean a lot of things.

Nominally they are:

1. pro-choice
2. limited pro-gay
3. some pro-environment leanings
4. all of the above
5. some of the above

I do not want democrats to face any of these moderate republicans. They (ie D) have a good chance of losing.

I am also a little wary of having Gov Moonbeam as our candidate. But gavin newsom does not inspire a lot of confidence either. My choice was the lt gov who withdrew.

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by: fai calif @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 00:42:44 AM UTC

Garamendi?

I really like Moonbeam.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 01:08:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Brown

Inless Feinstein gets In I think Brown wins.Remember Older Democrats helped Hillary won the California Primary In 2008
against President Obama.Although she also had Asians and
Hispanics.Brown may be the best shot at taking the governorship back.If I lived In California I would be
voting for Brown.

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by: Robbins @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 01:30:03 AM UTC

Ditto.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 01:52:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Brown got a huge bounce from Antonio pulling out

First, there are old trendlines.

The SF Chronicle printed numbers from the same poll showing 2:1 movement for Brown:

With Villaraigosa in the lineup, the numbers read:

-- Brown, 33 percent.

-- Newsom, 20 percent.

-- Villaraigosa, 17 percent.

Take the L.A. mayor out, and it's:

-- Brown, 46 percent.

-- Newsom, 26 percent.

But the big jump is in fundraising where Newsom is just getting slaughtered. Here are the numbers from the late reports since last Monday when Antonio pulled out:

Jerry Brown:    $303,330
Gavin Newsom: $56,800

That is with Newsom getting checks under a $25,900 cap and Brown still under the $6,500 AG cap. And everyone expects Newsom's CoH to be miserable with how quickly he's burning money.

All this despite Newsom campaigning pretty much full time for a year now. And while he's been on the road campaigning, things in SF have been going to crap. Right now Newsom's getting protested by LGBT and Labor at City Hall:

Robert Haaland is a labor activist and long time leader of the local chapter of Pride at Work. He told us the budget cuts "are no different from what Schwarzenegger is doing. No new revenue, deep cuts to health and human services. It'd be fine if he was running as a Republican governor."

Haaland pointed out that when Newsom ran against Supervisor Matt Gonzales in 2003, Newsom was neutral on gay marriage, and Gonzales got the majority of votes in District 8, which includes the Castro.

"He changed his position on marriage, but that doesn't give him license to use marriage as a shield for budget cuts affecting LGBT and poor people," Haaland said.

And [Harvey Milk Club president Rafael] Mandelman sums up, "It's great to celebrate marriage, but for a lot of people it's a luxury."

Hopefully Newsom will resist the calls for him to save face and pull out as he'll make Brown an even better nominee.

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by: Bob Brigham @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 02:07:44 AM UTC

Newsom pulling out might actually give us a decent candidate

Assuming Brown doesn't have health problems in the next year, Newsom is unelectable, so he should get out before being crushed (resulting in implications that his Howard Dean/gay marriage moment is what sunk him rather than being a sucky candidate).

If Brown is unopposed, he'll win.  If a better candidate comes along and beats Brown in the primary, she/he will win.  But if Newsom hacks at Brown for a year, he (Brown) could be very damaged next fall.

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by: tommypaine @ Tue Jun 30, 2009 at 06:21:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]