I'm a bit skeptical

I mean, politicians usually have to "Hike the Appalachian Trail" for numbers to turn that quickly.  But this is a somewhat unique situation of partisans on both sides getting used to the reality that "their candidate" is now "our candidate" and vice versa.  That said, I can't believe that 48% of any segment of Pennsylvania voters are undecided on anything related to Arlen Specter.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Thu Jun 25, 2009 at 20:16:40 PM UTC

I believe it.

I can't believe that 48% of any segment of Pennsylvania voters are undecided on anything related to Arlen Specter

Democratic primary voters certainly were decided on Spector(R) after several decades. But Spector(D) is a whole different new critter they're haven't got their minds decided on yet.
Especially since he flipped solely to save his miserable ass in his sure-to-lose R primary vs Toomey, and not for any higher reason.
And especially since he's seemly has shifted anti-union this year. For them the jury is presumably still out.

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by: homerun @ Thu Jun 25, 2009 at 21:51:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

specter comes out in favor of public option apparently

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

that's the way to help your numbers of dems, arlan.  now about efca . . .

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by: bennytoothpick @ Thu Jun 25, 2009 at 22:26:11 PM UTC

I'm skeptical of this poll......

It just doesn't smell right that Arlen's numbers would tank during a stretch when he's kept a lower profile and quietly voted mostly with his new party, after having been better when he was pissing off major parts of the Democratic base with his open opposition to a health care public option, to EFCA, and to Dawn Johnsen.

In a vacuum, yes, it makes sense that there might be high undecideds right now, since most Democrats have been voting against Specter every 6 years for a long time.  Remember this isn't a guy who was winning reelections by 70-30 margins, and Republicans and independents sure weren't favoring the Democrat all those times.  So his opposition came from Democrats, and it makes sense they'd want to "wait and see" this early.

But that would be in a vacuum, and we don't have a vacuum.  Rather, we have previous post-switch polling by F&M and others that all showed Specter doing very well in trial heats as a Democrat.

The only other explanation that can validate this poll is that maybe a lot of PA Dems were initially excited by the party switch as a big coup and were reflexively supportive, but now the initial excitement has passed and they're reexamining their primary vote, still a long way away, more soberly.  I'm still skeptical because my gut tells me there just aren't that many voters, that big a percentage, who would do that all together in a short time this far out.  But my gut has been wrong before...I never thought attacking Libby Dole for spending too little time in NC would stick with voters and yet it worked and Hagan kicked her ass...so that could be it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Jun 26, 2009 at 01:49:29 AM UTC

Methodology

is my bet for the sky-high undecideds.

These college-based polls tend to leave initial-response response undecideds unchallenged, draining the soft support right out out the totals.

For instance, the question would be posed as, say, "If the election for dogcatcher were held today, would you support Joe Blow or John Q. Public?"

The college polls will leave it as that as often as not. Working from a textbook, this is the proper methodology. Private pollsters, however, draw on institutional knowledge and experience which tells them this misses out on a lot of half-formed opinion. And, hell, half-formed opinion is what matters. These are the folks whose votes are in play.

Private pollsters will then follow-up on initial undecideds with "which do you lean towards at this time?" Watching the fluctuations in the first- and second-read numbers is where you pick up movement breaking.

Anyway, I reckon this one-read approach accounts for the inflated undecideds... that and Specter being inherently loathsome and PA Dems having some trouble swallowing having him on their ticket.

Anyway, the poll is still useful. Specter starts with an edge but one has to wonder how low his ceiling is. Sestak is an unknown quantity to primary voters at this point. And his pulling only 13 indicates there is not a lot of enthusiasm for an outright rejection of Specter, but the 48 undecided does reflect that there are a lot of Pa Dems open to the notion.

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by: pinhickwv @ Fri Jun 26, 2009 at 22:26:58 PM UTC