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NY-Sen/Gov - Gillibrand behind, Paterson -still- dead meat

by: mkpowers

Wed Jun 24, 2009 at 12:28 PM EDT


NY-Gov should be completely uninteresting for most poll junkies by now - another day, another poll showing Paterson getting creamed by Cuomo.

Quinnipiac (HTML - June 16-21, registered voters)

David Paterson: 20%
Andrew Cuomo: 57%
MoE: +3%

Here's the slightly more newsworthy bit - Sen. Gillibrand is behind Rep. Carolyn Maloney for the 2010 Senate nomination:

Quinnipiac (HTML - June 16-21, registered voters)

Kirsten Gillibrand: 23%
Carolyn Maloney: 27%
Jonathan Tasini: 4%
Don't Know:: 44%
MoE: +3%

Don't Know still winds in a landslide, naturally - but I'm wondering what is keeping Gillibrand's numbers so far in the pits, considering that she's fairly smoothly transitioned from upstate conservative Democrat to the liberal New York mainstream. My thought was a sort of "throw the bums out" mentality, considering how badly Paterson is doing.

The fav/unfav of Gillibrand and Maloney are pretty similar - not many people have heard enough about them yet to really form an opinion one way or the other.

Gillibrand's, among Democrats:

Favorable: 29%
Unfavorable: 8%
Haven't Heard Enough 63%

And Maloney's, among Democrats

Favorable: 34%
Unfavorable: 2%
Haven't Heard Enough 63%

I think Gillibrand will be fine in the primary in the end. I don't know that any of the attacks from the downstate Democrats will necessarily stick as her voting record in the Senate gets fleshed out over the next year or so, and Upstate Democrats adore her, so she really just has to win a plurality of the NYC vote to carry the primary (or even a close second).

Bonus question from the Q-poll:

DavidNYC's favorables, among Democrats:

Favorable: 63%
Unfavorable: 10%
Haven't Heard Enough 27%

Obviously DavidNYC should be the Democratic Party's choice for this one. Peter Fucking King stands no chance.
mkpowers :: NY-Sen/Gov - Gillibrand behind, Paterson -still- dead meat
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NY
We really have to hope Suozzi gets in as Cuomo is apparently scared or something else.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Cuomo is a Cuomo
AKA Chickenshit.

Gillibrand is behind because nobody knows her. Nobody knows Maloney either. Frankly, I'm surprised Kirsten hasn't begun any kind of campaign so far. Raising boatloads of money doesn't seem to have scared everyone off so maybe she should start using some of it by running some early ads to get known. First impressions and everything. Otherwise many New Yorkers introduction is going to be Maloney's attacks.  


[ Parent ]
Gillibrand will be ok. Paterson...not so much.
Gillibrand's going to win her primary.  Frankly, she needs one to really sharpen her skills and introduce herself to New York voters.  She's done everything she's needed to neutralize Maloney's threat.  She'll be fine.

Paterson however has earned his place in the shitter.  It seems like his low approval rating always gets chalked up to the Carolyn Kennedy mess but he's been terrible on everything from the state's budget to promoting transparency in government.  He's just a bad governor and a bad Democrat and someone needs to run him out of town and try to make New York at least somewhat functional.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com


I'm hoping he's going
to be persuaded not to run.  We're in a huge mess if he runs and no one challenges him.  Who knows about Cuomo anymore.

[ Parent ]
Cuomo's playing chicken and waiting until
Paterson drops out and the party begs him to run.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Which needs to happen sooner rather than
later, in my opinion.

[ Parent ]
Cuomo's going to run if Paterson is asked to step aside
           If it looks like Paterson's number's improve, and I mean a significant improvement. Not a little improvement where his numbers go from an 18% to 20% approval rating. I'm talking an improvement where he's not getting absouletely clobbered by Guiliani, and where he's at least within 10 points of Cuomo in a primary. Then Cuomo won't run. You see in 2002 Cuomo tried to run against state controller Carl Mccall, an AA. Which caused alot of resentment in the black community, and which took him awile to repair.So he has to walk a fine line. He's hoping that his numbers remain in the gutter, and he's asked to step aside. I don't really believe for a second that he dosen't want to be governor.  

[ Parent ]
It kind of makes me happy to see the Gillibrand/Maloney number
             As I have posted here before I don't really feel strongly about either Gillibrand or Maloney. Gillibrand just kind of rubs me the wrong way, I don't hate her or anything like that, I might even eventually warm up to her. But what I really do resent is basically the establishment lining up behing her and basically telling me "hey she's our pick for senator so you better get used to it." I mean why do you think she's all of a sudden getting all these endorsements so soon? Yeah, it might be because she's impressesd somme people. But it's mostly due to some serious mojo, ala Schumer and Obama. You know shoudn't she be doing a little bit better now then 23% in a primary?  

But Maloney is not very good
I've detailed this before. She is neither very liberal nor very smart. For example, she's a pro-war Democrat. Right now, I'm very comfortable in considering Gillibrand a better Democrat and a more effective politician than Maloney.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]

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