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SSP Daily Digest: 6/23

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jun 23, 2009 at 3:01 PM EDT


CO-Sen: Mark Udall endorsed his fellow Senator Michael Bennet yesterday. Superficially, that's completely unsurprising, but it's an indicator that we've gotten to the point where it seems unlikely anyone else from the Democratic political establishment (former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, for instance) might challenge the appointed Bennet in the primary.

FL-Sen: I predicted yesterday that billionaire Tom Golisano's interest in the Florida senate race wouldn't last long, and now it doesn't even seem to have ever existed. He let the Buffalo News know today that he'd never publicly expressed any interest, and that nobody (starting with Politics1, where the rumor started) ever called to ask him about it before launching the story.

ME-Gov: After months of nothing happening in the Maine governor's race, now we have two candidates. Democratic State Rep. Dawn Hill, who represents part of York County and owns a dog day care in her spare time, announced she's in the race. She may be a long shot in the primary against former AG and former state House speaker Steve Rowe, who quietly filed his candidacy papers last week.

FL-09: Our condolences to the family and friends of Phyllis Busansky, who died unexpectedly last night. She ran a solid race in FL-09 in 2006, and was elected Hillsborough County's Supervisor of Elections in 2008.

NC-08: With the NC GOP trying to recover the fumble on their attempts to recruit Carolina Panthers star Mike Minter to go up against freshman Rep. Larry Kissell, a new possibility has emerged: former state Rep. Mia White (who was Mia Morris while in the legislature). She's been pretty far out of the loop lately, though... she has been living in Singapore, where she's been American politics commentator for what she called their equivalent of CNN.

NY-23: One more Republican has declared his interest in the open seat in the 23rd, who wasn't on anybody's watch list: veterinarian Gary Cooke. In a dairy-heavy district, Cooke seems primarily focused on farm issues.

OR-04: Springfield mayor Diamond Joe Quimby Sid Leiken has already run into some trouble in his nascent campaign against Rep. Peter DeFazio: he's the subject of a campaign finance complaint from Democrats. Leiken paid $2,000 to a company called P&G Marketing and Research for "surveys and polls," but no such firm exists and the address is the same as his mother's real estate business. While Leiken didn't return calls on the matter, Leiken's campaign manager said that he has receipts for all of the campaign's expenditures... except for this one.

PA-03: You know your campaign wasn't meant to be, when the first mention your campaign gets in the press is your Facebook announcement that you're dropping out of the campaign. The GOP's lone challenger against freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, social studies teacher Brian Lasher, dropped out, leaving the GOP without a candidate, although businessman Steve Fisher is still thinking about it. Hard to fathom the GOP giving up without a fight in such a traditionally swingy district.

Cal-St. Ass.: Fresno-area Assemblyman Juan Arambula left the Democratic caucus yesterday to become an independent, supposedly over budget issues (although water issues may be a major subtext). This tips the balance to a still comfortable 49-29-1 for the Democrats, but with Arambula gone they're now five votes short of the 2/3s necessary to do anything useful with the budget. Arambula is term-limited out in 2010, so the fallout is contained.

Demographics: Nate Silver has, as always, a fascinating graph as part of a piece on changing migration rates in the last few years. Migration from blue states to red states has slowed significantly in recent years, probably because of the economic slowdown. The plus side is that this may salvage a few Democratic House seats in 2010.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/23
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You'd think if someone
was going to be crooked, they'd be crooked to the tune of more than $2000.

I was thinking the same thing.
Unless this was merely a test to see if he could get away with it...

[ Parent ]
How much influence does Udall have?
It certainly looks like the establishment isn't going to put a challenger up to Bennet.

But he still looks weak and a lot of Colorado Dems are well to the left. Does Udall have any pull over them sufficient to keep them from supporting a challenger? I know Udall himself has been pretty moderate.


Udall
Has disappointed many of us on the left in Colorado with his stands as a Senator, especially because, as a Rep., he was a solidly progressive vote.  I think that's where his heart still is, though, so I would personally listen at least a little.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
AK-GOV
Politico is running a story that Palin more likely than not will decline to run for re-election to focus on a national campaign.

Ethan Berkowitz has all but declared his candidacy, so I guess we'd be looking at Berkowitz for the Dems versus Parnell for the Repubs.

Don Young gets a free pass, this time?  Unreal!


I'm sure someone will go against Young
Parnell certainly won't be primarying him again, so short of Young getting indicted, it's likely he will be the GOP nominee again.  Murkowski will probably be left alone so I imagine most of the ambitious Dems will be look at the House race.

[ Parent ]
My lord...
Is Palin freakin insane? Even if I were a diehard Palin supporter and apologist I would think shes insane to run for Pres. in 2012. She simply...cannot...win. Her public image is too much in the crapper. Maybe by 2016 people will forget her negatives (then again...did people in 2000 forget Dan Quayle's?). But not in 2012. I think Romney is licking his chops at this, knowing there will most likely be a major split in the Evangelical vote (between Huck and Palin).  

[ Parent ]
And Im not sure how well Palin will do in IA
What can she possibly know about farming? I think, more than likely, she will come across as clueless on those important, rural issues.  

[ Parent ]
And really...
Palin should just be patient, run for re-election, then run against Begich in 2014. If shes still popular, by then, the seat is pretty much hers to lose in a state that almost re-elected Ted Stevens. She would have national exposure and then could just run for Pres. in 2020 or 2024 (she would only be 60 then. But at the same time could be 'old news' by then).  

[ Parent ]
Well...
Let's call a spade a spade. Palin and her crew are pretty "white trash." I've always suspected that she just wants to cash out on her 15 minutes of fame: write a book, get a radio or talk show, etc. She may want to be president, but I think the allure of a cash out will be too much for her. Which is why I doubt she'll run for re-election.

[ Parent ]
I'm not convinced
I do still suspect she really relishes more power. Also, no matter how bad her poll numbers look, remember the hero's welcome she got at all the "McCain" rallies (which were really Palin rallies for the most part) in 2008. I think, like most right-wingers, she listens only to the propaganda of the FoxNewsMax crowd - and if you did listen only to them, it would be perfectly reasonable to think she has an excellent shot at the brass ring in 2012. It would probably also be easy to believe feminists will rally to her side against Obama because all they really care about is having a woman in the White House.  

[ Parent ]
She definitely
would be pretty much set for life. She was not very wealthy before her term as Gov. and now with her book deal and any future ones she definitely will be.

[ Parent ]
Ethan Berkowitz
Berkowitz should challenge Murkowski for the senate. A lot of people in Alaska dont like her.

Murkowski Will Get a Free Pass


[ Parent ]
agreed
Murkowski gets a free ride...

I wonder if Knowles would be interested in the House seat.  Or ifh e;d run for the open Gov seat with Berk as his Lt like he did last time.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
Knowles Has Lost Multiple Times
Knowles barely won for governor the first time, benefited from a split candidate field his second election and has lost two subsequent elections for Senate against Murkowksi back in '04 and Palin in '06.

Berkowitz is fresh blood. Even Young complimented Berkowitz as a tough opponent.

If Murkowski couldn't be defeated in '04 with the spectre of nepotism and her scandalous dad hanging over her head, she'll continue to be elected as long as she runs.


[ Parent ]
I'd rather Scott Kawasaki run for the House seat.
He'd be a great candidate and, more importantly, a great representative.  There's some grumblings in the Alaska netroots that the same faces keep running again and again-it's time to get some new blood I think.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
As long as Sarah Palin holds the "anti-pork" card
Murkowski will be more popular by contrast and thus extremely hard to beat.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
well said (eom)


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Maine
Has a weird law that prevents candidates from doing anything until June the year before the election, so this was the earliest candidates could jump in, raise money and officially be a candidate.  Expect more folks to go in; Rosa Scarcelli is likely going to announce soon.

I wonder
What the chances of Tom Allen getting in are. While he shouldnt get a cleared primary field in Democratic Maine he does deserve some politicians campaigning for him and fundraising for him out of gratitude for giving up his House seat to run against Collins. Even in the beginning it looked to be Collins' to lose, so its not like he was giving up one seat for an extremely good chance at getting another.  

[ Parent ]
He's on his own
Allegedly Mainers don't like negative campaigning, but even by those standards Allen ran a very tame campaign. Whether or not he did that to preserve a shot at the governor's race, I don't think he really earnt much support.

[ Parent ]
He said
he's done with politics after 2008.

[ Parent ]
New York State Senate article on the News Hour (PBS) tonight


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

NC-08
I live in Singapore and I don't have the slightest clue what "their equivalent of CNN" is. Perhaps NewsAsia, but I don't recall ever seeing anyone named Mia (with any last name) there. Something tells me she won't be very popular returning to North Carolina from the part of the world where so many of those textile mill jobs have gone to. (Being originally from New Hampshire myself, which is where the South lured those jobs from in the first place, my sympathies are limited in any case...)  

It's almost certainly referring to CNA
http://www.channelnewsasia.com...

And this would be the only mention I've found of her. CNA's analysis is trash and superficial so I can't say I watch it beyond the usual airport terminals and waiting rooms at the doctor, but yeah, she probably isn't very notable even in her position here.


[ Parent ]

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