Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 6/22

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jun 22, 2009 at 2:05 PM EDT


• DE-Sen: Wilmington News-Journal writer Ron Williams seems convinced that Rep. Mike Castle will be running for the open Senate seat in 2010 and will announce next month, based on his chats with unnamed "high-ranking Republican operatives who know Castle's moods and inclinations." He also points to Democratic "rumblings" that AG Beau Biden may pass on the race, to avoid a career-damaging defeat. The Hill tried to get confirmation on this and didn't get any new information out of Castle, so take with as much salt as needed.

• FL-Sen: This is about the last thing anyone could have predicted: billionaire gadfly Tom Golisano, who ran three races for NY-Gov as an independent and was last seen pulling levers behind the curtain in the New York Senate semi-successsful-coup-type-thing has a new idea: running for Senate in Florida. Either on the Independence Party line (which does in fact exist in Florida, although barely)... or as a Democrat. Despite the fact that he just became a Florida resident a few months ago because he hated New York's high taxes. Sounds like the kind of thing that'll last until he's distracted by another shiny object.

• MN-Sen: While we're trafficking in thinly-sourced rumors, here's one more: there are plans afoot for the "pre-concession BBQ" for Norm Coleman staffers.

• NH-Sen: AG Kelly Ayotte is reportedly "close" to deciding to run for Senate. (If you haven't already read Laura Clawson's takedown last week of the circular rationale for the Ayotte boomlet, do it.)

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: GOP Reno mayor Bob Cashell decided he didn't really mean to endorse Harry Reid last week; he had co-hosted a fundraising reception for Reid but had done so as a "non-partisan mayor." He probably noticed that having endorsed Reid wouldn't help his chances in the Nevada governor's GOP primary next year. (Although this article says that he's also considering running for Governor as an Independent.) Meanwhile, Nevada's other Senator, John Ensign saw his approval numbers take a huge hit with the allegations about his affair with a staffer: the Las Vegas Review-Journal finds him at 39/37, down from 53/18 last month. Still, he's the most popular guy in Nevada, compared with Harry Reid's 34% approval and Gov. Jim Gibbons' 10% approval in the same poll.

• CA-Gov: Antonio Villaraigosa will announce later today on CNN whether or not he's going to run for California governor, which seemed likely even a few months ago but has gotten called into doubt recently. He can't be encouraged by a recent LA Times poll, which polled only Los Angeles city voters on the Dem primary. Although Villaraigosa maintained a 55% approval as mayor, he only beat ex-Gov. Jerry Brown and SF Mayor Gavin Newsom by 38-32-13 on his home turf, with a plurality opposing his entry into the race.

• IL-Gov: Little-known state Senator Matt Murphy is getting in the Illinois governor's race. He joins two other state Senators in the field: Bill Brady and Kirk Dillard. Murphy has only been in the Senate since 2006, but may have a geographical advantage against presumptive frontrunner Brady, in that Murphy is from Palatine in the Chicago burbs while Brady is from downstate.

• ME-Gov: Somehow this eluded me (and everyone else) last week, but it's indicative of how little press the open Governor's seat in Maine is getting. Steve Rowe, the Democratic former House speaker and Attorney General, has filed his campaign paperwork. The likely Dem frontrunner will have his formal kickoff "at a later date."

• NJ-Gov: Chris Christie has some splainin' to do to Congress: he agreed to testify before the House Judiciary subcommittee on Commercial and Administrative Law, regarding who Christie chose to award no-bid federal monitoring contracts to when he was US Attorney. Christie also looks to be waddling toward the center for the general, as last week his team scrubbed the "Shared Values" portion of his website that was up during the primary, in which he talked about opposition to abortion and gay marraige. Meanwhile, the discovery of an extra $625 million or so under the couch cushions in the state's tax amnesty program may help Jon Corzine's chances a lot; with that extra money, Dems may be able to restore the popular property tax rebates that were on the chopping block.

• NY-Gov: Rudy Giuliani gave a timeline of sorts for deciding whether or not to run for Governor, saying "it's something I have to decide sometime this year, but I haven't really focused on it very much right now." Also, like clockwork, another Siena poll (pdf) showing David Paterson's dire straits just came out (although numbers have been stable for several months now): he loses the primary to Andrew Cuomo 69-16 and the general to Giuliani 57-27. Cuomo beats Giuliani 49-40, and has his highest-ever approval ratings at 71%.

• FL-08: Rep. Alan Grayson likes to keep 'em guessing. One of the most outspoken liberals in the House, the freshman rep. plans to appear at the next Orlando-area teabaggers' event on July 4. Apparently he's there to tout support for a bill to audit the Federal Reserve, a topic where he and the Paulist wing of the GOPers have common cause.

• FL-13: More insight into the campaign finance shell game that GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan allegedly had going on, that's been the subject of investigations: a bankrupt registered Democrat explained his $8,800 contribution to Buchanan in that he was reimbursed for the contributions by his partners in a trucking company, one of whom is one of Buchanan's biggest backers.

• OH-02: David Krikorian, who's going up against Rep. Jean Schmidt in this dark-red district, has put out an internal poll showing him within striking distance, down 44-39. Those numbers may have a lot to do with the DCCC's surprising recent decision to list OH-02 as one of their eight best shots at a pickup.

• Redistricting: The presentations from the NCSL's first Redistricting Seminar are available online. They include topics like the Census and "How to Draw Maps That Will Stand up in Court." (D)
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/22
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
SSP Daily Digest: 6/22 | 45 comments
Ron Williams is a joke
He's been consistently wrong about Delaware politics for several cycles now - including his predictions that the GOP would hold the state House last cycle (didn't happen), that Speaker Spence would hold his seat (he lost), that John Carney would handidly win over Jack Markell in the Democratic gubernatorial primary (Markell won by 3 points), that Beau would lose his AG race in 2006 (didn't happen)...notice a trend?

I'm excited by the OH-02 however...Krikorian won 18% as an independent so he could be ingreat position.

Oh, and contrary to my prediction
Section 5 of the VRA lives to fight another day.
Oops, didn't see the posting below

[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov?
This 625 million under the couch cushions...where is this from?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
NJ offered an amnesty to
pay back taxes without penalty.

It netted the state around 625 million, which was vastly more than the 100 million they were expecting.

[ Parent ]
Castle
I just cant see Michael Castle running to be a freshman senator at the age of 71 on election day and he's also had two strokes. If Beau Biden ran against Castle age would certainly be an issue. Remember when young Carper ran against the incumbent Roth. This could be the same thing.
Why is Harry Reid so unpopular in Nevada?

The same reason
he's unpopular everywhere else?
[ Parent ]
Majority leader
Constant attacks from the right accusing him of being a far left radical and attacks from the left accusing him of being a closet conservative or calling him gutless because he won't use the nuclear option have taken their toll on him. I'm afraid he might end up like Tom Daschle and Tom Foley. I don't know why anyone would want to be the Democratic majority leader.  
[ Parent ]
Not the same as Daschle/Foley
As bad a shape as Reid's in, The Nevada Rs are in even worse shape. Their best candidate (Jon Porter) lost re-election last year, and the two statewide officeholders are either under investigation (Krolicki) or hugely unpopular (Gibbons).

Personally, I wish Chuck Schumer were majority leader. He knows how to be tough and cut a deal. Plus, he is the architect of our Senate majority.

[ Parent ]
I have not seen any liberals
Call for him to use the nuclear option - though I would not be opposed to that. Rather, people want him to force the Republicans to actually filibuster - ie, get up there and read from the phonebook until they drop - rather than let the GOP "painlessly filibuster" by just insisting on sixty votes to pass everything.
[ Parent ]
Let me try to get the procedural part right
By enforcing a real filibuster, the GOP would not only need to vote down ending debate but would actually need to carry said debate they say they need?

At the present, most filibusters occur without the majority leader making them actually debate it, he just what, tables it?

[ Parent ]
And liberals who keep asking for that
apparently don't understand the rules of the Senate. A modern filibuster is when there aren't enough votes for cloture.

Personally I'm for abolishing the Senate.  

[ Parent ]
So am I.
But seeing as any proposal to do that would have to either pass through the Senate itself or many of the small states that benefit from it it will never happen.

The rules of the Senate, on the other hand, can easily be changed.

[ Parent ]
That "or" should be "and/or"

[ Parent ]
I would say
that so long as the small states are so over represented in the body, I'm OK with having some anti-"majority" rules. Think about how many Democrats Barbara Boxer's margin would have elected in 2004 under a fair apportionment.  
[ Parent ]
Fair enough.
But to require sixty percent of the Senate to support anything before it passes is absurd. There should be some way for the minority to block the so-called "worst excesses" of the majority, but not to block every damn thing that comes up as the Republicans have done or have attempted to do.
[ Parent ]
Maybe a reduced supermajority requirement
like 55 votes, for example.  
[ Parent ]
I am too
Replace it with a proportional body.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I love your style of argumentation
Such rank dismissiveness of those you disagree with. I was going to respond, but really, I'm tired of this kind of attitude.
[ Parent ]
Fair enough
If I can dish it out. . .
[ Parent ]
I don't know why anyone would want to be the Democratic majority leader
when representing a republican or swing constituency.

Spokane, South Dakota, Nevada?  Whatever happened to choosing party leaders from places like San Francisco and Chicago?  ;-)

Seriously, Pelosi has no erosion of support here in SF, except for some electorally insignificant dissatisfaction on her left.  Durbin or Schumer would never face trouble at home due to their actions as majority leader.  I realize that no politician wants to give up on the power and influence of leadership, just because their voters back home might get irritated with them, but having leaders hail from vulnerable ridings is kindof a liability for the rest of the party.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Reid
Hes kind of an anomaly. On the one hand he does cave into the GOP, as well as to Bush when he was Pres., but on the other hand he hurled some pretty nasty words towards Bush, which was obviously seen as an example of fierce partisanship. Its one thing for us to do so on a blog and another for a congressional leader to do so. But despite that nastiness and probably genuine personal dislike for Pres. Bush he did back down from him alot.
[ Parent ]
Hes kind of the anti-Schumer
As Schumer is pretty partisan in his actions but still not nasty in his words.  
[ Parent ]
ineffectuality, as per usual
Basically, he's in too deep with the plantation owners, er, casino interests, of Las Vegas.

There's nothing much that the average voter in Las Vegas or Reno region can give him much credit for lately.  No cramdown legislation, no improvements in healthcare, gas prices rising again, etc.

[ Parent ]
Krikorian seems like a waste of time
He ran there as an independent in 2008, so we can't exactly expect himto be a good vote (especially since he got the Libertarian endorsement - he's liable to be a crappy vote on things like healthcare, and the good guys tend to lose on government power anyway).

Plus it's an R+13 district that may hate Schmidt but has 50% of voters who hate the idea of voting Democratic even more.

There will likely be another third-party candidate picking up the pox-on-both-your-houses vote, and Krikorian will lose at least as badly as Wulsin did. And if we get him, we'll wonder what use he is. I guess Schmidt's less useful as a fundraising tool now that Bachmann's around, but otherwise spending money here seems like a waste of time.

Yeah
I think OH-02 is a fool's errand. Jean Schmidt seems to have learned how to keep her mouth shut. There are many better opportunities elsewhere, even in Ohio - such as Pat Tiberi's OH-12.
[ Parent ]
OH-12
Won't turn blue until Tiberi retires.  I think the DCCC knows that and is going to wait him out (do you know of any candidates in that race?). As for the OH-02, I don't think the criticisms are fair, particularly about Krikorian potentially being a "crappy vote."  Representatives ought to be indicative of their constituents, and if we applied that litmus test of who would be a "good vote" for the Democrats we would have to exclude Walt Minnick, Frank Kratovil, Kathy Dahlkemper, Bobby Bright, Chris Carney...the list goes on and on.  We should take note of the GOP and not simply ignore candidates simply because they won't be with us 100% of the time.

As for electability, he'll do enough damage out there to force the GOP to play defense and can put himself in a position to win.  Eventually, Schmidt's going to go the way of Bill Sali and John Hostettler, folks the NRCC view as too much of a liability and a sunk cost and will let her hang out to dry.  Wulsin was a terrible candidate - Krikorian will at least benefit in the district as someone who has business experience and won't be viewed as an out-there college prof.

[ Parent ]
May be alright for the district
But I suspect most out-of-district funding is considerably more liberal than Krikorian would be, and when strengthening the majority isn't crucial, that matters. I'm not saying we should reject these people, I'm saying we let them spend their own money to get elected. If there's no realistic way they'll ever be vote 218 for one of our priorities (as individuals, rather than as supporters of the Democratic Party) then we gain relatively little from supporting people more conservative than us.

I could be convinced otherwise, but I doubt Krikorian passes that test.

Especially since I really can't see Schmidt going down. She's more careful now, not nearly as insane as Sali or as maverick as Hostettler - and her district is a lot less favourable for us than Hostettler's ever was.

[ Parent ]
Sorry to double-post
But I'd also add that challenging Tiberi is probably worth it anyway. It's a Democratic-leaning district, Tiberi performed much worse in the old version of OH-12 and he's not especially moderate. Hounding him makes sense.

If nothing else, you want to put him on the defensive. If you let him dig in, he's harder to remove, and he could be there in three decades time. Worse, he could run for higher office with an undeserved reputation for moderation.

He's not vulnerable enough for it to be an obvious top-tier race, but he merits at least an attack dog candidate to soften him up for a less favourable 2012 district.

[ Parent ]
CA-Gov
He's not running. And there goes my second choice...
With Villaraigosa out...
I wonder if another prominent Latino Democrat will run for Gov. Such as Rep. Loretta Sanchez. She would probably do well amongst Latinos and white moderate/conservative Dems (given that shes a Blue Dog, though on the left side of the caucus). Although I have heard that SF Mayor Newsom is not as liberal as people would might think, and might himself do well amongst suburban white moderate/conservative Dems (whom are fiscally moderate/conservative and socially progressive).  
[ Parent ]
Sounds a little dubious to me...
If the economy improves by the 2010 election (fingers crossed, for Obama's and the Democrats' sakes), I can see Republicans using their ardent support of Prop 8 to smear Newsom and Brown.  I think the Democrats would do well to find another candidate without such a liberal reputation.  
[ Parent ]
I seriously doubt that
support of Prop 8 will sink any politician in California.  You're not talking about a huge victory, or even a 55% victory.  And by now, who knows exactly where the numbers stand.
[ Parent ]
Thing about Prop 8 is...
Alot of its supporters are gonna vote Democratic anyway. Such as Pro-Prop 8 African Americans and Latinos. A Republican cant win without the white, modertate swing vote and I am sure they were strongly against Prop 8.  
[ Parent ]
If Beau bails
Will Carney switch? Is there anybody else?
If Beau bails, then to hell with him forever
That douchey placeholder appointment happened for a douchey reason, and now what should have been expected possibility happens, and he bails?  No balls, no thanks.

Carney or anyone else should have been appointed in the first place, then all that would be happening now is Castle announcing his retirement from public life.

If biden runs and loses against Castle, fine, he earns respect.  If he doesn't run, I can't imagine giving such a coward one second of support in the future.

[ Parent ]
I kinda hafta agree
people who should run but don't ie Henry in OK not running for Senate, really piss me off.  

While I'd support said candidate if they got past the primary....odds are I'd support a primary opponent against them in that race.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Henry, Freudenthal, Easley
etc DON'T owe us anything. They got elected to serve in the office they ran. Sure it would be nice if they did run for Senate but not everyone wants to be a Senator. Not everyone wants to be 1 of 100 or commute to Washington DC away from their families, etc. I would be disappointed but again, if they don't want to run then fine. They should at least help build up the party in the state and help others get into office.  
[ Parent ]
I have to agree
They shouldnt have to sacrifice their priorities (which includes time with family) as well as just simply run for a job they dont want for the sake of their party. And, if elected, they may care so little for the job at hand that their popularity erodes and makes them, and those down ballot, vulnerable when up for re-election. I would rather have a Senator who wants to be there than someone who doesnt want to be there. And besides, many Governors can make a significant amount of more money in the private sector post-Governorship (i.e. Jeb Bush) than they would in the Senate. So I can understand them not wanting to sacrifice all that money, especially if it goes towards their children and grandchildren's future. So, in closing, they should give us good governing and good ethics but shouldnt have to give us a Senate seat.
[ Parent ]
It would kinda bite people on the ass
Who complained about the process. On the one hand I understand the position that politicians should earn their careers and that dynasty and nepotism are generally bad things but was it worth losing a Senate seat over?
[ Parent ]
Amen! n/t

[ Parent ]
Whoa!
Calling Ted Kaufman a "douchy placeholder" is totally out of line. He may not be around in a few years, but he is a competent, effective and progressive Senator.
[ Parent ]
I think
It was in reference to the appointment itself being douchy in that it was a placeholder rather than going with a permanent placement right out of the box.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Ohio 2
Check out who the hottest campaign is today at Act Blue:

http://www.actblue.com/page/ci...

Maybe your coverage helped with this.

Also, I would not call his poll "internal."  "The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research on June 11, 2009. Pulse Opinion Research, LLC, is an independent public opinion research firm using automated polling methodology and procedures licensed from Rasmussen Reports, LLC."

They used the exact same folks that Rasmussen Reports uses for all of their polls.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/22 | 45 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox