Public Policy Polling (PDF) (6/17-19, registered voters, 1/17-18 in parens):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 44 (45)
John Kasich (R): 42 (39)
Undecided: 14 (16)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Those numbers certainly ain’t pretty, but then again, PPP’s first batch of results weren’t exactly a thing of beauty for Teddy Ballgame either. And they’re a stark contrast to Quinnipiac, which has given Strickland twenty-point leads in its last two polls.
So what gives? F.O.S. (Friend of SSP) Tom Jensen takes stock of the situation:
Four pollsters have released approval numbers on Ted Strickland since last November.
Two of them – Quinnipiac and the Ohio Poll – show Strickland in a strong position. The most recent Quinnipiac showed Strickland at 57/29 for a net of +28. The latest Ohio Poll showed it at 56/34, or +22.
SurveyUSA and PPP show a very different picture. SUSA’s most recent numbers were 45/44, or +1 and our release tonight finds 43/42, also +1.
It’s worth noting that Quinnipiac and PPP are showing the same trend. In January Quinnipiac had Strickland at +38, so his +28 now is a ten point drop. We had him at +13 in January and now at +1 for a similar 12 point drop. So while we show very different pictures on Strickland’s overall popularity we do both find it declining.
Tom notes that PPP and SUSA both use IVR, while Quinnipiac and the Ohio Poll use live telephone interviewers – but he’s not sure what accounts for the wide discrepancy. Hopefully some other pollster will get in the mix here soon.
RaceTracker: OH-Gov
Unless things change in a big way, 2010 is going to be extremely ugly for us. I’m thinking a loss of 3-4 net Governorships, maybe a gain of 1 Senate seat and the loss of 20ish House seats is in the cards.
Strickland is supposed to be popular, and yet he’s only leading by 2 points a year and a half before the election. Is he done for? Certainly not, but there’s no logic in acting like everything is a-ok.
I hope this means people will be voting for Brunner rather than Fisher.
are both silly. what this very good post says is that the picture is unclear. 2 pollsters show strickland to be in a great position. 2 show it close.
what any good observer of all these political sites knows is that you don’t overreact to any one poll.
i would say that looking just at polls, strickland has to be considered a favorite. also looking at the other OH trends, i’d say he’s the favorite. but given that it’s OH, i’d expect all the OH races to be close.
tekzilla’s occasional “sky is falling” is definitely on the silly side.