| Research 2000 for Daily Kos (6/15-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Gov primary (Dems):
Neil Abercrombie (D): 42
Mufi Hannemann (D): 22
Undecided: 36
(MoE: ±5%)
Gov general:
Neil Abercrombie (D): 45
James "Duke" Aiona (R): 36
Undecided: 19
Mufi Hannemann (D): 44
James "Duke" Aiona (R): 34
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4%)
For those of you not familiar with the players out here, Neil Abercrombie represents HI-01 in Congress, Mufi Hannemann is the Mayor of Honolulu, and Duke Aiona is the current Lt. Gov. Abercrombie has already pulled the trigger on a run; Hannemann has formed an exploratory committee. It's pretty interesting that Abercrombie has a material lead in the primary test, given that Hannemann has the better favorables (56-20 vs. 55-33).
I had thought that Hannemann wasn't too likely to run, but his recent activities indicate otherwise. He does have $660K left over from his mayoral campaign last year he can transfer over to a gov account. On the flipside, he's 16 years younger than the 70-year-old Abercrombie, and there's a decent chance Sen. Dan Akaka's seat will be open in 2012, if Hannemann's interested in that alternative.
One interesting side note: These two have faced off before, and are 1-and-1 in an unusual set of circumstances. Both men ran for HI-01 in 1986 when the incumbent, Cecil Heftel, ran for governor. Hannemann won the primary, but Abercrombie won the special election to fill the final two months of the term. Hannemann wound up losing to the Republican in the general election.
Speaking of Republicans, Duke Aiona has a decent 44-26 favorability rating, and has already raised $1.5 million. However, he's charging against the blue tide here - Hawaii's only ever had one Republican governor (the current incumbent, Linda Lingle), and gave the highest vote percentage to Obama of any state last year. SSP currently rates this race Lean Democrat.
And speaking of Linda Lingle, we also have some Senate numbers:
Dan Inouye (D-inc): 52
Linda Lingle (R): 40
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4%)
I don't think anyone expects her to run, but she's almost certainly the only Republican on any of Hawaii's islands who could give Inouye a serious challenge. And even still, she trails by double digits with Inouye over 50. She sports better favorables than most governors, but at 51-43, they aren't great, and are considerably weaker than Senator Dan's 56-38 rating. SSP currently considers this a Race to Watch, but if Lingle doesn't bite, it will move to Safe D.
RaceTracker: HI-Gov | HI-Sen |
