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SSP Daily Digest: 6/16 II: Electric Boogaloo

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jun 16, 2009 at 4:09 PM EDT


MO-Sen: In an e-mail to local TV affiliate KY3, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman seems to be walking back her comments to the Hill yesterday, not wanting to appear to shut the door on a GOP primary bid against Rep. Roy Blunt. She says she's still "very seriously considering" it.

PA-Sen: Here's an interesting development: a state legislator in Pennsylvania has introduced a bill to switch Pennyslvania from closed to open primaries. This seems like a nakedly pro-Specter bill: it would have helped him survive his GOP primary against Pat Toomey, and now it would have the opposite effect, helping him survive a Democratic primary against Joe Sestak by opening the door to independents and moderate Republicans.

AK-AL: Unless the indictment fairy has a present for him soon, Rep. Don Young looks to have a much easier go of it in 2010 than last cycle. Not only is his Dem challenger ex-state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz likely to run for governor instead, but now it sounds like his primary opponents, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and ex-state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, aren't going to run again either. Unlike last time, Parnell would need to give up his LG job to run, and he may instead be running for Governor if Sarah Palin declines to run again. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who ran for Governor as an independent in 2006, also sounds likely to run for Governor rather than challenge Young. State Senator Hollis French, who sounded like a likely Governor candidate for the Dems until Berkowitz showed up, may be the Dems' best bet.

AL-07: The field to replace Artur Davis got bigger, as Jefferson Co. Councilor Shelia Smoot officially launched her campaign. She joins lawyer Terri Sewell, state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., and former Selma mayor James Perkins in the primary (which is the only real race in this D+18 district).

CA-11: Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf turned down the chance to run as a Republican in the upcoming CA-10 special election, but that seemed to ignite his interest, as now he's considering running in 2010 in next-door CA-11 against sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney, at R+1 a more plausible race than the D+11 CA-10.

FL-08: Republican state Representative Steve Precourt is considering making the race against Rep. Alan Grayson in this R+2 Orlando-area seat. His strongest words seemed to be reserved for likely primary opponent Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, who Precourt doesn't see as a "fresh face" or viable, although Precourt said he'd stand down if former state Sen. Daniel Webster got in.

ID-01: The Republican field in ID-01 is filling up, as state House majority leader Ken Roberts announced he's in. He'll have to get past veteran and McCain ally Vaughn Ward before facing off against Rep. Walt Minnick, though. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali occasionally makes threatening noises about a rematch, but he hasn't said anything definite.

NH-02: Former state Rep. Bob Giuda (not to be confused with Frank Guinta, running in NH-01) is the first GOPer to launch an exploratory committee in the race to fill Rep. Paul Hodes' open seat. He may still be joined by the 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, and, more remotely, a return by ex-Rep. Charlie Bass.

NY-23: Douglas Hoffman, the head of a local accounting firm, has thrown his hat into the GOP nomination contest for the special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. Republicans also announced their schedule for picking a nominee, involving four regional meetings around the districts where candidates would speak to the Republican county committee members over a two- to four-week period once there's an official vacancy.

PA-03: Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, representing the swingy R+3 district based in Erie (won by John McCain by 62 votes), has managed to secure a hot ticket in view of its self-imposed membership cap: she joined the Blue Dog Coalition.

Redistricting: A petition drive is underway in Florida to get an initiative on the ballot for 2010 that, while not creating an independent redistricting campaign, would at least place some non-partisan limitations on the creation of House and legislative districts. Most of the money behind the petition drive is coming from Democrats, but two prominent Democrats aren't on board with the drive: Reps. Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, both of whom stand to inherit more difficult districts if they're made less convoluted.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/16 II: Electric Boogaloo
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Florida Redistricting!
Oh NO! Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown could be given less democratic districts? Oh how could they do this to those two reps? Obama only got 73% in Brown's district and 83% in Hastings!!! Why if the districts got a little more competitive, why they just might elect democrats who do stuff besides congratulate the Florida Gators football team and have Reps. who have not been impeached from previous offices.

The horror!

See, this is why the Florida Democratic party fails, cause they're willing to bend to things like this. Take a D+10 district and live with it, many others have and it's treated them very well.


Past D+15 or so, there's really no point in making them crazier
and it's not like we get more progressive voting records out of a D+30 district's rep than out of a D+20 district's rep.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
What do you think is the best we can expect
with Sink as Governor and a GOP legislature? 10 safe Dems and a Dem-leaning new district should be the bare minimum of her demands, IMO.  

[ Parent ]
Depends on this year's election results
But I think they should argue for the safety of all incumbent Democrats (Klein, Grayson and Kosmos specifically), something more 50/50ish for Allen Boyd, and hopefully a safe seat for Then-Rep. Charlie Justice. The sweet bonus for dems would be letting the Republicans secure Rooney and Posey in exchange for a swingy/leans R new seat.

Hopefully, something that results in 11 D-15 R and ends around 13D-13R at the end of the decade. I dunno, I live in Texas, what do I know?


[ Parent ]
sweet chris bell reference
and i don't mean the former congressman.

[ Parent ]
Clearing the dirty laundry now
He's got a presidential run OR failing that, a Senate re-election bid in 3 years.

[ Parent ]
since has he been mentioned for president?
I havent seen his name listed ever anywhere.  He'd be giving his seat pretty much directly to Giffords then, which is fine by me.  I can see the convo between them on the phone, "Oh hey Gabrielle I'm running for Pres."  "Sweet, so I'll take your seat and laugh as your party goes even further into the hole."  Something like that  ;)

(No one else would really stand much of a chance against her would they?  The other GOP reps are either too conservative or ready to retire already.)


[ Parent ]
He has been or is going to Iowa
Giffords is from Arizona.

[ Parent ]
Wow didnt know that about Ensign
and about Giffords, well, not quite sure what the hell I'm on to have messed that up.

[ Parent ]
Good news
Ensign would have been a far stronger candidate than the flock of retreads the Team Red has now.  This may not hurt him in '12, but it may cause him to not even try.

[ Parent ]
The right honorable senator Ensign

I am wondering if this is going to help Reid.

Gibbon's too. Although, a 3% rise for him makes no difference


[ Parent ]
Rupf will be a very strong candidate in CA-11
I don't like it.

ohhhh
A SECOND Daily Digest??? Is it Christmas already!?! lol Oh, and I personally know a Republican running in CA-11. We'll see how that goes for him, especially since its very early on.  

Thirded.
Fiery Boogaloo?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
As for PA-Sen
with that going through, I bet Specter will have wished he was still a Republican, what if he switches back?  Hahahahaha, that'd go down in history.

Didn't Bob Smith do something weird like that?


Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Yeah he did
In 1999, he announced that he was dropping out of the Republican primary for President and was leaving the Republican Party entirely and was going to sat as an Independent.  He was expected to receive the Presidential nomination of the Constitutional Party (which may have then still be the US Taxpayers Party).  However, that fell through and he quietly returned to the Republican caucus a few months later.

[ Parent ]
what the primary against him and Sununu like?
Was it ever even close?

[ Parent ]
I wonder who has more name recognition:
Bob Smith in Florida or Bob Roggio in PA-06 around the time he was first polled in the 2008 cycle.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]

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