Davis Is Gonna Have to Draw a Weak GOP Opponent

The Davis campaign is hoping to draw a weaker GOP opponent and basically squeak by with a white voter base of 38% or so.

---

by: Zeitgeist9000 @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 20:19:34 PM UTC

Against Roy Moore Davis gets 30% of the white vote,

which might be just enough. Pretty risky, though. . .

Race defines politics in the deep south.

---

by: andgarden @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 20:28:35 PM UTC

Davis could pull this off

I think the pundit mentality that he won't get any more votes than Barack Obama did last fall isn't fair.  There are a lot of differences between federal and local elections, and Obama never really campaigned in Alabama, allowing all of the nasty rumors abut him to go unanswered in that part of the country.  Plus, Davis has a very centrist voting record and if he can prove to voters that he's not a steretypical Congressonial Black Caucus liberal, he can win this.  Think of Rep. Sanford Bishop in Georgia; he does extremely well in Middle/Southwest Georgia and wins the white vote every time.  Davis will be at a disadvantage because of the D next to him, but I wouldn't give up on him just yet.

---

by: DFLer @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 21:09:36 PM UTC

Different paths to win

Sparks of course will have much greater than an 18 point advantage with black voters by election day, should he be the nominee.  However, he may not mobilize them the way Davis would, even if Davis gets a few points lower of the white vote.

Just not sure which path will be easier.  These numbers, despite the high number of undecideds, give pause to the running theory that Sparks will automatically perform stronger in a general election.

---

by: skaje @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 21:57:24 PM UTC

You're right on

That's what it pretty much boils down to regarding choices.  Trying to win over enough white moderates to win (Sparks) or maximizing the black vote (Davis).  That's the gamble faced by voter in the Dem primary.

---

by: shaunnol @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 23:04:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

AL

Not sure what Sparks is doing here, I don't think he really has a shot at this and taking a loss like this could hurt him long term.  Dems have a big name at Lt. Gov too right?  Folsom or someone?

29/D/Male/NY-01

---

by: Tekzilla @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 22:18:03 PM UTC

Jim Folsom Jr.

Dad was a Governor and son was too back in the '90s' he narrowly lost in the 1994 massacre.  Was going to run for Governor (and Sparks for Lt. Governor) until Davis jumped in.  Sparks, not wanting to primary an incumbent, decided to run for the open seat instead (term limits prevent him from running for re-election).

---

by: DFLer @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 14:18:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Democrat polling company

Remember PPP is democrat polling company.  I am not saying they rigged the poll.

But it might have something to do why they took the poll during Davis' annoucement media attention.

So that had to up him a couple points.

With the media praising Davis when the poll was and with a lot people not knowing his close ties to Obama and his liberal voting record, Davis almost surely has nowhere to go but down in the general election.

As I said before, Davis probably loses to any Republican.

As for your stomping on Moore.  Davis and Moore are is a statisical dead head in democrat's polling company poll taken during a positive buzz for Davis and bashing of Moore by the media.

So that would translate into losing in real life.

---

by: princeliberty @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 22:41:56 PM UTC

Democratic polling company

It is an old trick but it still annoys me.  You instantly lose credibility by failing to use the proper word and chosing a pejorative instead.

Also being within the margin of error is NOT being in a statistical dead heat.

---

by: Johnny C @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 04:02:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Your absolutely right

Roy Moore is a great candidate. Nominating him is the path to holding the Gov. mansion in Alabama.

I think I can safely speak for the vast majority of us when I say: Please nominate Roy Moore.

---

by: safi @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 14:43:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

POS says Moore is unbeatable!

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 14:47:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Democrat polling company

Remember PPP is democrat polling company.  I am not saying they rigged the poll.

But it might have something to do why they took the poll during Davis' annoucement media attention.

So that had to up him a couple points.

With the media praising Davis when the poll was and with a lot people not knowing his close ties to Obama and his liberal voting record, Davis almost surely has nowhere to go but down in the general election.

As I said before, Davis probably loses to any Republican.

As for your stomping on Moore.  Davis and Moore are is a statisical dead head in democrat's polling company poll taken during a positive buzz for Davis and bashing of Moore by the media.

So that would translate into losing in real life.

---

by: princeliberty @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 22:41:56 PM UTC

but does artur davis kick his dog?? - nt

---

by: zac @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 01:43:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Democrat polling company"

They have a better record than the Republican Rasmussen.

---

by: conspiracy @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 14:18:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Better than..

... Republic Rasmussen, for that matter.

---

by: omarka @ Fri Jun 12, 2009 at 15:06:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Republican't Rasmussen eom

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

---

by: californianintexas @ Fri Jun 12, 2009 at 16:17:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's easy for a Democrat to get to 40%...

the problem comes when you try to go past that.

---

by: Johnny Longtorso @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 22:45:42 PM UTC

The parker griffith replacement election

Democrats ran an AA candidate for the Alabamy senate seat Parker Griffith vacated. They lost.

Alabamy is not Viriginy yet.

---

by: fai calif @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 22:56:03 PM UTC

Maybe, but...

Parker's state senate seat was slightly (about 20%) less African American than Alabama as a whole (26%).  Furthermore, our state legislator may have been a whole lot more left-wing than Davis.  I'm not saying he will win this (and race may play a factor), but I'm leery of automatically saying he can't.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

---

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 01:55:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Correct

The Dem nominee in that State Senate race was terrible.  Davis is much closer to James Fields, who is an African American Dem who won a special election in a rural, 99% white GOP-leaning district in a special election last year.

---

by: zac @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 02:14:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In what ways? (eom)

---

by: DavidNYC @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 07:40:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well...

If you're asking in what way the Dem nominee was terrible...she is an unabashed liberal who refused to run a real campaign, and made no effort to give any voters outside of the hardcore Democratic base a reason to vote for her.  She'd voted for the very controversial legislative pay raise and had significant exposure in the high profile community college scandal - she was caught forging time sheets and claiming she'd worked at the college on days she was actually in the legislature, which is not allowed.  She refused to talk about any issues but thought her experience as a state rep would carry her through.  Plus she actively injected race into the campaign as well, which contributed to the polarization that didn't work to the Dems advantage on Election Day.

If you're asking in what ways is Davis closer to Fields...Davis has a well-crafted record distinct from national Dems (much to the dismay of many in the netroots of course). Davis is already a known (and liked) quantity to many of the swing voters he'll need to win.  Davis will run a well-funded, well-organized campaign that focuses on issues.  And most of all the Davis campaign will actively give white voters (and African Americans) plenty of reasons to vote for him.  That takes several of the concepts and lessons learned from the Fields race, and applies them to the statewide level.

---

by: zac @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 13:23:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You know, I just can't get over the "Davis can't win" mentality.

It just irritates me because it always comes down to race it seems so, well, wrong.  Just seems like we're building another glass ceiling here when we do this sort of thing.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

---

by: ARDem @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 01:37:00 AM UTC

I dunno though

it seems like the glass ceiling was already built long ago.

---

by: Andrew @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 04:10:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's no reason to build another one.

Think about it.  By saying Davis can't win, Davis will destroy the ticket, etc. Democrats are basically telling African Americans "Don't aspire to this, you'll ruin everything.  You can't break their glass ceiling, so just live under ours, now just shut up, vote for us, and don't do anything else."

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

---

by: ARDem @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 06:27:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're right

It's the same damn thing lots of people said about Barack Obama. But the fact is, until a black candidate does win a post-Reconstruction gubernatorial election in a Deep South state, there will continue to be doubts expressed. Remember what a huge deal it was when Douglas Wilder won in Virginia? I look forward to the day when black candidates have won statehouses in states like Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana (and for that matter, Texas). I don't know whether we're there yet, and only time will tell.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 08:09:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

It must be infuriating to them to constantly be told that all they're doing is giving seats to Republicans by daring to run themselves.  Meanwhile, white Democrats just expect them to fall in line and provide unanimous support as even those white Democrats can't win the white vote.

---

by: skaje @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 08:35:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm sure it is

but such is reality...

the racist tendencies of the majority of whites in the southern states won't allow a black candidate to win there yet.  

No one is saying that black candidates shouldn't aspire to these positions, but there are positions in my life that I aspire to myself...I just happen  to accept that I''m not in a position to where I can obtain those positions.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

---

by: skywrnchsr509 @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 12:43:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

it sucks but its reality and Id figure more black politicians would recognize that.

Although what's his face in Georgia would be interesting if he won the primary.  And I'm not that pessimistic on Davis' chances.  Quite frankly, Im looking at all of these races this year as kind of a new place to put ourselves on getting black candidates elected in the South.

Davis' is one to watch and see but I have a really strong feeling that he's already hit his high point and from here on out, all the undecideds go Republican.

---

by: Andrew @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 16:24:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The course of history isn't changed by the timid.

It's changed by those that are willing to defy the established order and ideas.  Regardless, even if Davis is set to lose, we should still be working to help him.  An old supporter of Jesse Jackson explained it to me once when I met her in the 2008 primaries-she and others realized Jackson probably wouldn't win, but by doing everything they could to get him elected they new they were paving the way for someone who would.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

---

by: ARDem @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 19:39:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP

I found Public Policy Polling to be one of the more accurate pollsters last election. Their final polls were actually very close to the final results. They were one of the first pollsters to show Hagan taking the lead against Dole. In addition, their poll predicted that Franken would beat Coleman.

However, it is still very very early and Alabama is the most welcoming state to african americans or democrats. Alabama is so conservative that Artur Davis's vote for the stimulus as a congressman could be used against him.

---

by: jmartin4s @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 13:13:15 PM UTC

typo

I mean to say Alabama is "not" the most welcoming state toward democrats and African Americans.

---

by: jmartin4s @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 13:14:17 PM UTC

NJ Gov and VA Gov

I was just reading the comments from the new gov ratings and people were talking about the New Jersey governor's race.  The reason the fix and cookpolitical still rate Jew Jersey as lean dem is because the RGA is not putting that much money into the race while Corezine will obviously put a ton of money into the race.  Of course this may change because of the VIrginia race looking more like a Deeds pickup.  

A lot of people are poo pooing the idea the Deeds could win this thing with a plus 5 percent margin or so but I don't see why not.  Deeds is much more conservative than Obama and Obama won it by 6 points.  Dems have a strong base operation there and it has been tilting dem the last several cycles.  As long as Obama's aproval rating is high I think NJ will be the race to watch and VA will be a cake walk.  However, I still believe money matters in NJ and that is why Corizine will win as well.

---

by: admnok @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 16:22:24 PM UTC