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NY-23 Candidate Roundup

by: James L.

Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 11:15 PM EDT


The latest and greatest comings and goings in the mad, mad dash to replace outgoing GOP Rep. John McHugh in upstate New York:

• Valesky: Democrats can cross off one name from the list of potential candidates thinking of giving the race a crack: state Sen. David Valesky tells the Syracuse Post-Standard that he won't run.

• Aubertine: The other state Senator in the mix for the Dems, Darrel Aubertine, is telling reporters that he's giving consideration to the race. However, with the state Senate in chaos right now, he may be under more pressure than ever to stay put. On the same day that Aubertine expressed his possible interest in the race, state Sen. Diane Savino said that she would "chain his leg to the chair" if necessary.

• Sullivan: Another potential Democratic candidate, John Sullivan, the former head of the state Attorney General's Watertown office, is going to dip his toes into the water. Sullivan, a Cuomo family ally, also served as the mayor of Oswego in the late '80s. For the Republicans, attorney Matthew Doheny is also interested.

• Scozzafava: Perhaps the most surprising development in recent days is the chatter that moderate GOP Assemblywoman DeDe Scozzafava, one of the few New York Republicans who has also run on the Working Families Party line, may be considering running for McHugh's seat as a Democrat.

Scozzafava is known to be interested in the race, but she's run into trouble with the hard-right rump of her party before; in 2008, the NY GOP rejected her bid to replace outgoing state Sen. Jim Wright in favor of her more conservative colleague, Assemblyman Will Barclay (who went on to be defeated by Aubertine in the special election). If she does seek the GOP nod to replace McHugh, she won't be getting any support from the state's Conservative Party -- chairman Todd Long says that her support for same-sex marriage is a "non-starter" for his party's endorsement.

In light of the perceived problems she'd face with her party's base in a nomination battle, a group of Democrats has created a "Draft DeDe" site and claims to be in contact with her "close allies" to help make it happen. The most interesting thing about all this, though, is Scozzafava's silence on the matter. Both the National Journal and PolitickerNY have both tried to get Scozzafava to verify if she's considering a party switch, and both outlets received nothing but radio silence from her camp. If she wasn't considering such a move, why wouldn't she swat down the rumors immediately?
James L. :: NY-23 Candidate Roundup
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NY-23 Candidate Roundup | 19 comments
Re: Scozzafava
ohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohpleaseohplease...

Pure speculation, but I wonder if the GOP's recent shenanigans in the State Senate will push her even further toward our side as a counteract of sorts.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

Wow, that'd be awesome!
The optics of a party switch would further hurt the republican party.  Also, a former republican now democrat would very easily carry the seat in my opinion.  Also it'd be one more seat the republicans would have to defend later.  What a pain for the republicans, woo!
NY
And from what I've read she already votes like a liberal Democrat correct?

29/D/Male/NY-01
strangely enough
she'd be a better vote than Aubertine on many issues.
[ Parent ]
well Aubertine
represents a tough, almost relexively GOP district, (in local elections), that had like never been represented by a Democrat. In fact I believe it was John McHugh's old district and their were rumors at one point that McHugh would retire and run for state senate against Aubertine.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
A tiny stretch
A liberal Democrat...maybe not so much.  But a typical northeastern moderate Democrat.  That's her.  A little too moderate-conservative on economics for some, probably.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
I actually really like the
idea of Scozzafava running. I think switching parties to run would be a compelling storyline for the many liberal Republicans in this district that now vote Democratic at a federal level. Not only that but her views are pretty compatible with the Democratic mainstream and she'd be a very difficult candidate to beat, especially when, (not if), the Republicans nominate the more conservative leaning of their field.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
scozzafava
how is that pronounced?

and if i were her or her advisers, i think silence is the only appropriate response until she takes a position.  if she's going to jump, she needs to have a clear strong argument for why she, as a former moderate republican, can be a strong and effective democrat, and if she is staying a republican, she should use it as an opportunity to reiterate why she is a strong moderate republican.

Well, it's an Italian name
So the sc is like an sh in English and the zz like a ts, so something like "shotsafava" or maybe Shodzafava, if the zz is voiced?  The o is a long o as in bow.  

Of course, the pronunciation may have been Anglicized somewhat, so I'm not sure how she actually says her name.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Ack! Ambiguous pronunciation example!
That's bow as in bow and arrow.  Same sound that's in row or no.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Not in Italian
The Italian pronunciation would be "Skoatsafava" (or maybe "Skoadzafava"). The "c" in "sc" is hard before all vowels except "e" and "i."

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Okay, thanks
I don't actually speak Italian, so I falsely generalized from the name of my own State Rep which is Sciortino.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Shyorteeno
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Other possible DEM Candidates
1. June O'Neill - State Party Chair
2. Nicole Duve - St. Lawrence Co. DA
3. Addy Russell - State Assembly
A D in NY-23 has never happened
At least per a previous DK diary, at least since the mid 1800s.

So if Scozzafava or whomever else succeeds, that D will likely vote like Gillibrand did in NY-20, moderate econ, pro-NRA, anti-immigration (it is a border seat after all, and I gather an area of significant illegal entry).

And it's rather unlikely that person could be pushed more left, until redistricting is settled after the 2010 election.

Maybe
But the 23rd has long been more Democratic in national politics, with some of the northern border counties (Clinton and Franklin) exhibiting almost Vermont-like tendencies.  Plattsburgh is a liberal oasis.  So, immigration might not be as huge an issue as we'd worry about.  Guns, yes, but it's rural northern New York for chrissakes!  I think that it's premature to say what sort of politics we get before we know the candidate, but I daresay a possible Scozzafava switch would produce an economic moderate otherwise well to the left of Gillibrand 1.0

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
NRA liberals, maybe
Remember, Howard Dean had to work for his A rating from the NRA to win in VT.
[ Parent ]
Anti-immigration?
Why do you think a district bordering on Canada would be against immigration? They're afraid of all those Canadians taking away their jobs? I doubt it. (OK, all kidding aside, I realize you're probably referring to illegal immigration by citizens of 3rd countries from Canada to the U.S.) Is there particularly strong anti-immigrant sentiment in all the states bordering on Canada? My guess is that, if anything, a lot of the people living in the 23rd district probably travel across the Canadian border often to shop, visit Montreal for business and leisure, to get cheap medicine, and probably to fly out of and into Montreal's international airport. They probably want smooth border control and customs procedures, to expedite their trips. Maybe someone living in that district or a similarly situated one could give us some insight into how these kinds of interests play out politically.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Yes, third countries
To some extent, the 23rd is a "way station" for immigrants entering illegally, especially from Asia, via Montreal.

As I understand it (can't find the links), that in part drove Gillibrand's anti-immigrant positions while she repped the 20th. Perhaps I mis-read or am remembering incorrectly. But if true, I think it's fair to assume that it would be a more important issue in the 23rd.

It certainly is different from what I remember living near the Washington state border. I had the feeling that WA state reps would be happy with Cascadia (BC/WA/OR) as an economic unit.

One thing I remember from living in NY was the pro-labor Rs from the North Country. But it's been years since I lived in that area too.

So I have opinions from what I remember, but it may be all out of date.

[ Parent ]
NY-23 Candidate Roundup | 19 comments

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