I somehow missed that Dave's app

support SC and, apparently, Indiana now.

Regarding your map, don't you think it's likely that the Republicans would try to remove Spratt at the same time? Were I them I would not want to give up his seniority and influence, but I am not them. . .

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by: andgarden @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 14:22:57 PM UTC

It would be hard to remove Spratt

Your Gerries would need to have some very ugly Manders and he might win anyway.  The only way I see doing it so turning the 3rd, 4th and 5th, into a "fajita strip" (or perhaps "bacon strip", since it's South Carolina) along the North of the state. They would be even longer and narrower than their Texas namesake though.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 18:16:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They might actually try this

But I'm not sure if it will hold up. The African-American population has actually sightly shrunk relative to the rest of the population. However, they could argue that 29% of the population is Black, and 2/7 is ~28.6%, so it's only fair.

Of course, if they were privy to making that argument, Texas would have to add 3 new Hispanic-majority districts and 1 new African-American-majority (or plurality) one.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Mon Jun 08, 2009 at 23:21:19 PM UTC

"They"? Isn't SC R-controlled?

Are they that desperate at defense?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 03:09:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That would be the idea

But the question is do they need to, which is probably not.
Of course, "they" could also mean the Justice Department, but like I pointed out, if they were going to play that game, there are several other states they need to be playing it in as well.  

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 03:24:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

...that

they'd be willing to cede us a new district?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Jun 09, 2009 at 03:09:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Virginia and Texas also.....

First off, if I were drawing a new African American district in South Carolina, I'd draw it with Bakari Sellers, a State Rep from Bamberg County, in mind while giving Jim Clyburn an Orangeburg based district. Sellers is one of the future stars for the Dems and would present a new face for African Americans in the state.

If we're basing seats by straight up populations of African Americans, then Virginia would also get another majority or majority minority seat. One would have to think that the base of such a district would be Virginia's 4th, which is over 30% African American.

To pull that one off, you would have to play mix and match between the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th districts, with African American portions of the 1st being used as backfill for the 3rd's losses. Such swaps would likely cost us the 2nd and 5th but would lock in a Democratic 4th CD for a long while.

I also believe that by straight population, Texas Latinos would be due 3 more districts and African Americans would also land another district. My guess is that its practically impossible not to draw a Latino plurality or majority seat in the DFW metroplex, so they should end up with something that looks like a more Latino friendly version of the old 24th that used to be Martin Frost's stomping grounds and my guess is that Rafael Anchia or Kirk England will represent it. Beyond that....maybe another minority friendly seat somewhere in Houston-and that's a pretty iffy maybe.

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by: displacedyankdem @ Wed Jun 10, 2009 at 20:44:57 PM UTC

I agree

The only way there isn't a new Hispanic majority district in DFW is if Republicans badly overreach and put up a dummymander that falls like a house of cards later this decade. They might opt to make use of the Garland area along with the base of west Dallas and Grand Prairie rather than going into Arlington like Martin Frost's old district.

If 4 VRA seats were somehow to happen, they could put the other two Hispanic seats in Houston and in the Rio Grande Valley. Technically, the population is there to make another African-American majority or plurality district, though I'm not sure where to put it. The 9th is already at serious risk of shifting to plurality Hispanic so Houston's probably out. Maybe Fort Worth? I've messed around with that idea a little bit, but I'm yet to find something that actually works.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 02:02:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]