Public Policy Polling is going to release their final VA-Gov survey very shortly. Tom Jensen teased us with this:
Looks like a tight race in Virginia... for second place. The undecideds seem to almost all be moving in the same direction.
I'm not going to call the race like I did the Saturday before the election for Kay Hagan based on early returns from our final poll because preferences in this race have been so fluid. But it doesn't look like things are going to be as close on Tuesday as the polling in the last week suggested.
What do you think the numbers will look like? For reference, their prior numbers are here. We'll post the results just as soon as PPP makes them available.
UPDATE (James): It's out.
Public Policy Polling (6/6-7, likely voters, 5/28-31 in parens):
Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (27)
Terry McAuliffe (D): 26 (24)
Brian Moran (D): 24 (22)
Undecided: 10 (26)
(MoE: ±3.0%)
Wow. What a huge movement for Creigh Deeds in just a few short weeks. Remember, Deeds was lagging at 14% in PPP's 5/1-3 poll, but a well-timed endorsement from the Washington Post was clearly the catalyst for Deeds' remarkable surge -- and probably also a sign that a sizable share of Moran and McAuliffe's support was pretty soft in the first place. Indeed, in the vote-rich DC burbs in Northern Virginia, where Deeds has been almost a non-factor for much of the race, Deeds has now pulled ahead of Moran by a 38-35 margin, with 20% going to McAuliffe.
And speaking of McAuliffe, take a look at his horrid favorability rating; among Democratic primary voters, just as many voters have a favorable opinion of the ex-DNC chair as those who dislike him (40%-40%). That's pretty brutal. If Deeds can hold onto his lead on Tuesday, we may be dodging a major bullet here.
Of course, the usual caveats apply: Pegging the primary voter universe is a notoriously tough business (especially in an ultra-low turnout state like Virginia), and the ground game will be key on Tuesday. For now, though, the momentum is clearly at the back of Deeds. |
