How to Stop the Embarrassment: MN Redistricting 7 Seat Map

by: Andrew

Sat Jun 20, 2009 at 9:34 AM EDT

I did none of this with a computer program or anything like that.  i was fortunate that MN provides all the info I needed to do this with the MnSOS office providing all the vote totals and also precinct maps of every state house seat, which was the main way I broke down the districts by vote and population when I didnt need to break it down to city/township/precinct level.  The state legislature websites has excellent maps with the two I used constantly were a map of the all the state house seats that also showed city boundaries which made it my go to map for figuring out my planned geography.  More importantly though, a precinct map of the entire state showing election results from dark red to dark blue.  I found county population totals for 2007 and when they broke down beyond that point, I wikipediad it which sometimes included 2006 estimates but mainly for 2000 totals and then I used common sense for population movements, figured out the percentage of growth for that county/area, etc to figure out the 2007 population of said city/precinct.  There is certainly some error involved in this but nothing that would alter more than a couple precincts here or there and then my map accounts for current population movement as opposed to 2000, little bit of a trade off there.

Everything is recorded in excel spreadsheets, they look like a hot mess.

map with county lines can be found here: http://s635.photobucket.com/al...

I figured I had three options with Minneapolis/St. Paul. 1. Put each in their own CD and have to expand them, which meant expanding into more Dem friendly suburbs, which in turn would mean I would end up strengthening Paulsen.  2. Put them both into the same CD, making one uber D+35-like district which would then leave behind all Dem burbs currently in the two districts plus a little bit of one of the cities.  I could then gerrymander two suburban seats into two Dem-leaning districts, most likely.  But McCollum lives in a burb just outside of St Paul so while it wouldnt make an Ellison v McCollum, it would mean her district being gerrymandered to be really Dem and then Paulsen would just get beefed up in return as a consequence.  I could put Ellison in a suburban district but well, that'd never work for him.   McCollum could survive it fine probably.  And option 3, which I chose, was to divide up MSP into three districts and pair them with adjacent suburbs, creating 3 solid Dem seats.  This was the more devious and fun way to go.

I will say at first, doing it this way REALLY bugged me but I was being politically minded, I looked at this and thought, that would never happen.  Quite frankly, I think it would have a decent shot after I've sat on it.  The map doesn't look messed up, it puts the cities and suburbs all compactly into three districts and the other districts all make perfect sense.  It's compact, simple, but really does a lot of damage.  You just have to get past Minneapolis dominating two districts.

CD1,7,8 all stay heavily rural districts with some exurban areas picked up and CD2 is one huge swath of Republican exurbia.

This map would result in a for sure 6/1 delegation as the seat I eliminated was Bachmann's and Paulsen's is now a heavy DFL seat.  An open MN-6 would probably make it 5/2 but maybe not.

As for the tables, the first 2008 is new the district's 2008 total, the second is former districts.  I also did the 2004 totals since many of you asked in other redistrictings what they would be.  And then are the county totals for each one so one would know where to watch for votes and such.  

MN-1 is now more based in the southeast corner and is almost indentical to the 1990's lines (it just worked out that way), this makes it 1% more for Obama as the southwestern rural counties are the Republican ones while the southeast is heavily DFL.  It now includes some of exurban MSP, but still keeps its rural district title.  Walz lives on the edge of the district and should still be quite safe.

I combined all the exurban Republican counties from Kline and Bachmann's districts as they are by far the most Republican in the state and a great population base.  Also, the district took in parts of Hennepin county for population and gerrymandering purposes.  The areas it picked up are exurban for the most part and are extremely Republican, the Lake Minnetonka cities (but not Minnetonka) and also Maple Grove had to be included, and these suburbs lean pretty heavily GOP, as well.

Kline now lives in CD1 but the city he lives in, Lakeville, borders CD2.  I would assume he'd opt to run in the new CD2 as he would certainly not beat Walz and the territory of his included in CD1 are his least favorable counties, and nor would he let Bachmann simply claim CD2 as hers.  Bachmann's district is simply gone and I would assume she'd move to run here, which  means that I may not have eliminated Bachmann, but actually strengthened her, depending if she could win the primary.  Bachmann could dominate in the caucuses and probably get the GOP endorsement but primary voters would probably be more apt to voting for Kline.  This is a consequence we can live with as at least someone got eliminated still and she is a good fundraiser for us.

This district combines Edina, Eden Prarie,, part of Minnetonka, Bloomington, southern Minneapolis and also Eagan in Dakota County.  All of the suburbs are trending Democratic with most of the areas in the district voting for Obama, but also voting for Paulsen, except for Bloomington which went Madia.  Paulsen lives in Eden Prairie and would be in this district, but would certainly get his ass kicked by just about any Dem challenger.  This district is now solid Dem, whatever the political climate.

This district stays pretty much the same except for it adds most of Washington county.  I initially divided MSP up three ways perfectly with some of the St. Paul state house seats going to CD5 but this district then dipped below 60% for Obama.  I wanted to maintain at least 60% in CD4&5 so this district maintains all of it's Ramsey county territory and largely is a St. Paul+burbs district still.

This district takes in the north half of Minneapolis (where Ellison resides) and includes all the suburbs to the west and then also to the north in Anoka County of Minneapolis, and then also picks up suburbs on the Hennepin/Anoka border and also Blaine.  Everything except Maple Grove and Plymouth are Democratic in Hennepin while the Anoka areas vary with Dem leaning to slight Repub suburbs.  Keith Ellison is really liberal but doesn't cause very many waves and would still be safe here.

This is the old MN-7 with it having the same base and will have the same congresscritter.  The district had to expand and the only option was into CD1 as CD2 areas are way Republican and the old CD8 is a northern Iron Range district that consistently elect a pretty progressive Dem.  (Oberstar is a lot more liberal than one would think based off the district.)  I managed to only make this district a tick more Republican, which is pretty good considering the areas to expand were all Republican.

This is the old CD8 with its base up north in Duluth and on the Iron Range.  Unlike what many have done, I left it completely intact except by removing Bemidji. I put in St. Cloud and then also included the colleges St. Ben's and St. John's which are blue.  It was tricky to figure out where to put St. Cloud since it is +2000 votes for Obama but the counties attached to it are all so Republian.  The district had to pick up counties south for population and I managed to make it a tick less Republican.  Oberstar is safe and so is his successor, House Majority Leader Sertich.  He could be speaker if Kelliher runs for governor, and he's young so it'll be in our hands for the next 50 years guaranteed.