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SSP Daily Digest: 6/3

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 2:23 PM EDT


MN-Sen: Despite the seemingly increased likelihood that he'd jerk Al Franken around now that he doesn't have to worry about re-election and how impatient Minnesotans feel about the Senate vacancy, Gov. Tim Pawlenty says he'll certify Al Franken as winner of the Senate race if the state Supreme Court directs him to do so. Also, many are interpreting John Cornyn's comments about how the Senate GOP doesn't have the votes to filibuster Sonia Sotomayor, even if they wanted to, as being a tacit admission that Franken would be seated soon.

NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.

KY-Sen: Here's a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for "whitfieldforsenate.com" and "whitfieldforgovernor.com" (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?

VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn't a topline, but the result from a subsample that's disposed to do well for Moran: people who've participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year's presidential race.)

Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).

MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are "interested." Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she'll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who'd do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card... Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can't have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn't interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.

MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor's race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard's entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run -- but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state's west to sneak through.

CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey's advantage; she made reference to Musgrave's letter in her own appeal for contributions.

FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she'd still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.

FL-25: Here's a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.

NC-11: PPP's Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina's state Senate districts.)

SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a "thank you" party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to "the conservative, religious crazy vote" and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.

UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney's 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor's position.

AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who's only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn't so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)

NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It's Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 6/3
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VA-Gov
Survey USA statewide

McAuliffe 35 (37)
Deeds 29(26)
Moran 26 (22)

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Deeds leads amongst those who have made up there mind but half say they may yet change. The trends lookbad for McAuliffe.


Moran PR using a tiny subset of the poll without the topline results
seems to indicate a desperate if not dishonest campaign.
And how did Moran really expect to get away with that without anyone noticing? Oh wait, Crisitunity was fooled for a while, but Crisitunity can easily and immediately update a blog story. If this were in print story, it would be out there uncorrected for a while, if at all.
Then there's Moran's extremely negative campaign. Ugh.
At this point, I'm hoping Moran comes in dead last. Let either of the other two guys win to face Mcdonnell.

[ Parent ]
If you scroll down, the trend looks worse
for McDonnell.  

[ Parent ]
GE Matchups
Deeds and Terry do well on holding Democrats, Moran does 4 points worse than Terry and 5 points worse then Deeds.

Indys go 36% for Deeds, 30% for T-Mac, and 25% for Moran.

While I am seeing Deeds rising and T-Mac falling in a race where either could win; I still see Moran getting last place.

Jerome is gonna be pissed . . .

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
In November, I'd be most worried
about running Moran. I base that mostly on how shoddy his primary campaign has apparently been.  

[ Parent ]
Looking good for Deeds
I'm hoping he wins the primary.

[ Parent ]
I'd be comfortable with either T-Mac or Deeds
Although an economically populist message like Deeds might resonate better, especially if he contrasts himself with McDonnell and the national Republican party message in general

[ Parent ]
Ketner's bombshell ...
I can't believe that lesbo actually SAID what everyone already was thinking. The nerve.

I had heard the Lt. Gov was gay, but not from enough sources to put it the Lindsey Graham category. He's hot too.    


"N.C. Partisan Index" map
that's linked to in the post is nice. Civitas.
But how does one interpret the "Change in NCPI: 2004 to 2008" ?
I see a lot more red & yellow colored districts than shades of blue colored districts.
So does that mean NC moved more Republican on the state level??

Sort of
It just looks like it polarized even more.  Buncombe, the Triangle, Greensboro, and much of Eastern NC blued slightly, but what was red is now redder. The most disturbing trend, if it means anything, is that southern NC is moving away fast.  While Shuler's seat is pretty static, McIntyre may have more serious problems.  

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Obama imrpoved about
five points there, same as Shuler's district.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Hmm...
I'm looking at SD-8, SD-9, and SD-13 (in particular SD-8), and it looks like it made a hard right. Now, maybe, SD-21 made up for it, but that's strange.  It's a blueish area, but are downballot Dems over-performing?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
AL State Sen
Actually the Dem won with 58% of the vote in the AL State Sen special.  That's a much larger margin than the previous incumbent (the late Pat Lindsey) ever won by under the current lines.

Very embarassing for the AL GOP.


Question about the New Alabama Candidate
Parker Griffith is supposable a bit more progressive than Bud Cramer was, is the new guy more progressive than the guy he is replacing?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Similar
Cut from the same cloth.  I'd say both are well within the mainstream of the Alabama Democratic Party and not closet Repub, DINO types.

[ Parent ]
Thanks, Z.
I'll post a correction.

[ Parent ]
Meek
Her doing that isnt as unsavory as what Rep. Andrews wife did in NJ but still pretty unsavory. And it may tick off the Haitian American community, who is hoping this race will produce the first ever Haitian American congressmember. And while them being upset wont mean a thing in a FL-17 general election it could mean something in a very close Senate race if her son is the nominee.  

Just as bad as Andrew's wife in
my opinion.

The only reason she'd actually serve a term is because FL law wouldn't allow her to be replaced by her son post-primary, pre-general election.


[ Parent ]
Mmm
I like the idea of Diaz. Garcia is a great guy who wouldn't be a bad candidate if he ran again but my impression of Diaz is that he's very well known and liked locally already and could raise lots of money. He's more of a hardliner on Cuba then Garcia which I don't like but I'll take that for ridding Congress of one of the Diaz-Balart's.

FL-13: did Vern Buchanan vote for the auto bailout?
If he didn't, is this something we could target him with?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Ooohhh . . .
"Vern didn't ever try to save the jobs of his own employees. Letting down those who know him best, that's Vern Buchanan."

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Im dying
I imagined that entire sentence in like the 30-40 year old woman type of voice that they are always in and it was just too perfect.  

[ Parent ]
KY-01 if Whitfield moves up
do we have someone lined up?

(Sorry for the two comments in quick succession; I forgot to post this in teh other comment.)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


lined up
not to my knowledge...the only person who has ever given Whitfield a decent Challenge was the guy who held the seat before him....Tom Barlow.  

Barlow lost by 2 points when Whitfield took the seat from him, then lost by 10 or so a few years later.    He lost by roughly 20 when he ran against Whitfield in 2006.  

Though that is significantly better than the nearly 30 point loss Dems suffered here in 08.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions


[ Parent ]
And Heather Ryan lost 36-64 in 2008
So both of those people seem to be out.

Dang.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
I remember reading
The registration numbers in his district (from which site I cant recall, but its a fairly popular one) and it has many, many more registered Dems than Repubs. Though that may not be saying much in the end.

[ Parent ]
It's like that all over the South, I think
Especially Kentucky.

The question is, do these people merely still have Democratic registrations as a legacy point, and vote Republican up and down the ballot, or do they vote more Democratic at any level (say, locally)?  And what are younger voters in the district registered as--DINOs or actual Republicans?

Finally, keep in mind that this is an R+15 district.  With a sitting and relatively non-controversial Republican, it will be quite hard to retake the seat.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
I bet the Dem bench is pretty stacked
at the state legislative level, but I'd have to check.

Some names on the bench who represent parts of the CD in the state senate:

http://www.lrc.ky.gov/legislat...
http://www.lrc.ky.gov/legislat...
http://www.lrc.ky.gov/legislat...
http://www.lrc.ky.gov/legislat...

There are also a good deal of Republicans representing parts of this CD in the state Senate, too, including Senate President David Williams (a guy who has contemplated a run for Bunning's seat). I wouldn't be surprised if he'd take the chance to run for the seat should it come open.


[ Parent ]
21-16 Margin in the KY state senate
Is the independent someone who leans D or R? When do senate elections occur again, 2009 or 2011? Seems like a good state to target for a take over as it appears as though Beshear is doing a pretty good job leading the state so far.

[ Parent ]
That Indie
was first elected as a Dem, then switched to the GOP, and then went Indie has a result of some kind of internal conflict. No idea how his votes line up these days.

[ Parent ]
Which ever way the wind blows
From the sounds of it.

[ Parent ]

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