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Redistricting New Jersey with Dave's App

by: andgarden

Sat May 30, 2009 at 6:47 PM EDT


So, Dave's redistricting app now supports New Jersey. Keeping in mind that no political data is available, I stuck to the current district lines as much as possible. The biggest changes are in north and central Jersey, which had to lose a district. Merged are the two GOP members from the old 11th and 7th. Now both can attempt to run in the new 7th.

The old 13th was renumbered 11, and retains a healthy hispanic plurality (if not quite majority). The Black majority of the 10th is also protected.

With the exception of Rush Holt, who may have a slightly more difficult district (with some more work I may have been able to avoid this), I believe that the entire Democratic delegation is protected.  

andgarden :: Redistricting New Jersey with Dave's App
North Jersey:

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Newark:

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Central Jersey:

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South Jersey:

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This is all supposedly based on 2008 estimates, but I think Dave would have to tell you exactly how he aggregated the numbers.

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Sorry I can't give the political info
It may be of interest that each district has about 723,000 people.

I love Dave's Redistricting App
I'm pretty sure the numbers are uploaded by county and apportioned to the blocks by the population they had in 2000. That is somewhat limited because you get large rapidly growing counties like Maricopa in Arizona in which some parts have exploded out of the nowhere and others are comparatively stagnant, yet this isn't really demonstrated.

Pretty good work overall. The CW is that Chris Smith doesn't really live in Trenton anyway, so you could probably move Mercer County all the way into the 3rd to help Adler, though your 4th may have a more conservative chunk of the county.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


I don't know where any
of the incumbents live, so this whole thing was a little tricky. I was actually inclined to move all of Ocean county into the 4th, but I was going for a minimalist map.

If I had political data, I would have tried to knock off another Republican.


[ Parent ]
I just installed
Dave's app on my Mac and am having trouble figuring out where to find it now that I've installed it!

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

it's a web app
you probably installed Silverlight.  

[ Parent ]
How do you save your maps?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

I took screen shots
I figure this is all illustrative anyway.  

[ Parent ]
A good idea
is to punch the "Print Screen" key and then paste to Paint.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
If you're using a Mac
You can hold down Command-Shift-4 and get crosshairs to choose which part of the screen you want to grab.  

[ Parent ]
If your Windows box has Microsoft OneNote installed
You can do WindowsButton-s, then select the portion of the screen to clip into OneNote.

Note, the clipping may go into OneNote and/or onto the clipboard, depending on that applications's settings...if it goes into OneNote, it'll open the application & let you copy/paste it from there.


[ Parent ]
I drew beautiful maps for Florida and Georgia
last night and this morning, and can't open them because I don't use Windows and so can't use the 2JPG.exe thing. I hope these aren't lost!

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

You should have taken screen shots.


[ Parent ]
Live and learn!


20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.

[ Parent ]
Yup
Remember, on the Mac you hold down command-shift-4 and get a dragable crosshatch.  

[ Parent ]
Ok got the screen shots...
Now how do I insert them into a diary?

[ Parent ]
You probably have to upload them to Photobucket and link to them


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Image Shack worked for me


[ Parent ]
Cool thanks
I'll have them up soon

[ Parent ]
The help page has help on this...
They're buried inside junk folders, and hard to find, but Dave put how to find them on his application help page.  I just found the redistricting app myself, and all of a sudden my free time is full-on swingnut again. XD  I've already got "rough drafts" of the sunbelt states out so far, and am tweaking Texas to try and fit my good government and partisan Democratic sensibilities... yeah, it's tough!

[ Parent ]
nice software
The data is still a little incomplete but it's great for the redistricting process.
If there is a concentration of black population in eastern Morris County then I have learned something new about Morris County.
I like your CD's, especially in the north. Some of the tentacles are hard to understand. I think it would be better if CD3 was pulled completely out of Ocean County and CD12 was pulled out of Monmouth County.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

The tentacles of the 8th and the 10th
into Morris County serve two purposes. 1) to achieve population equity in the two districts, and 2) to "eat" chunks of the old 11th, which I targeted for elimination. My guess is that those tentacles are quite white and fairly Republican. But the solidly Democratic nature of the rest of the 8th and the 10th makes the tentacles politically irrelevant.

The central districts of 3, 4, and 12 were the most difficult to draw, mostly because they all, to some degree, had to shift north--a reflection of the loss of a northern district. As I wrote, the Democratic incumbent I expect to be least happy is Rush Holt. I agree that his district could be made more Democratic. So, probably could the 3rd.

I drew this map starting from the north, and ran into trouble in the center. Last night I started on another effort from the south, and encountered even more trouble when I tried to build a new 4th.

The software could be very much improved if a selection of existing districts could be drawn in place and assigned new numbers. It would be easier to deal with what's left over, I think.  


[ Parent ]
Here's my latest attempt

It's based on my original redistricting plan but I updated it for the updated census data.
I started in the south and worked north. I find it's easier that way because there are fewer districts in the south.
The Democratic incumbent who will be least happy with this plan will be Steve Rothman. Holt and Adler will be very happy with it.
This may be considered a cop out, but I think the new 4th will involve Chris Smith moving out of Mercer County. That became inevitable when Adler won the 3rd, requiring the 3rd to become more Democratic. The rest of them get to stay put.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
Yours is clearly cleaner looking than mine
I think your issue is going to be in the north. I'm concerned that the 8th and 9th don't preserve minority-majority status (though actually they don't look much different than my 10th and 11th).

My concern is that the current 3 N NJ Republicans find a way to win in 3 of your 7/10/11/12. The 11th is a particular concern.  


[ Parent ]
the reason for that
I remember reading somewhere (probably Blue Jersey) that the mayor of Jersey City wants cities to stay together in redistricting, so that big cities would have more influence in Congress. I thought it was an interesting idea so I made an entire redistricting map without breaking apart any municipalities. Population equality is pretty good, all are within 1% and most are with 0.5%.

The 8th CD is 48% black, the best I could do. The only way to get 50% is by splitting cities. I'm sure in the real redistricting plan parts of Newark, Jersey City and Elizabeth will be in both districts.

The 11th is more Democratic than it looks. 40% of its population is in Passaic/Clifton/Paterson. Both the 10th and the 11th are about D+3 and they have entrenched incumbents. Hopefully this would get the people in the northern part of these districts used to voting for Democrats. I also hope the changing demographics will eventually give Democrats a chance to win the 7th.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12


[ Parent ]
Oh, and I love my messy lines
Messy lines say to me that some people were accommodated and others got screwed.  

[ Parent ]
you can do that with clean lines too
But clean lines look more fair and voters like that.
When the Newark district has arms reaching into Morris County it's obvious you're trying to bury Republican votes in a Democratic district, and it won't get through the state leg. But when the liberal Bergen district stretches all the way to the northern border, it's less obvious you're trying to bury Republican votes, and more likely to get through the state leg.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
Well, the state legislature has nothing to do with it
A bipartisan panel will pass a compromise map.

[ Parent ]
Actually, the state legislature appoints almost all of the panel
But you're right, it is bipartisan. We're probably heading for incumbent protection plan, maybe even a fair fight D v R district. Rush Holt v Leonard Lance, anyone? Maybe Bill Pascrell v Rodney Frelinghuysen?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.


[ Parent ]
Rush would be Lance, right?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Depends on how the district looks
But a fair fight district especially around Princeton would easily favor Holt.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]

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