Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45
Jim Gerlach (R): 36
Undecided: 15
Joe Sestak (D): 37
Pat Toomey (R): 35
Undecided: 23
Joe Sestak (D): 36
Jim Gerlach (R): 30
Undecided: 30
(MoE: ±2.8%)
I still gag whenever I have to put a (D) after Arlen Specter's name, and I don't think I'm the only one. Specter's approval margin among both Dems and independents dropped a dozen points over the last month. And the ratio of Dems willing to vote for him fell from 85-4 to 73-10. These numbers are still pretty high, though, so is there enough discontent for Joe Sestak to get in?
Interestingly, Sestak & Jim Gerlach have almost identical approvals, yet Sestak starts with a six-point lead. That points up the natural advantage Dems hold over Republicans in Pennsylvania these days.
P.S. In a move sure to anger wingnuts already steamed about the NRSC's endorsement of Charlie Crist, Big John Cornyn said it was "premature" for the GOP to back Toomey, even though there are no other Republicans in the race (and the prospects of any getting in look slim).