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PA-Sen: Toomey Gets Closer to Specter

by: DavidNYC

Thu May 28, 2009 at 1:11 PM EDT


Quinnipiac University (5/20-26, "Pennsylvania voters," early May in parens).

Primaries:

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 50
Joe Sestak (D): 21
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±4.1%)

Pat Toomey (R): 38
Jim Gerlach (R): 10
Peg Luksik (R): 3
Undecided: 47
(MoE: ±4.3%)

General:

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 46 (53)
Pat Toomey (R): 37 (33)
Undecided: 14 (10)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45
Jim Gerlach (R): 36
Undecided: 15

Joe Sestak (D): 37
Pat Toomey (R): 35
Undecided: 23

Joe Sestak (D): 36
Jim Gerlach (R): 30
Undecided: 30
(MoE: ±2.8%)

I still gag whenever I have to put a (D) after Arlen Specter's name, and I don't think I'm the only one. Specter's approval margin among both Dems and independents dropped a dozen points over the last month. And the ratio of Dems willing to vote for him fell from 85-4 to 73-10. These numbers are still pretty high, though, so is there enough discontent for Joe Sestak to get in?

Interestingly, Sestak & Jim Gerlach have almost identical approvals, yet Sestak starts with a six-point lead. That points up the natural advantage Dems hold over Republicans in Pennsylvania these days.

P.S. In a move sure to anger wingnuts already steamed about the NRSC's endorsement of Charlie Crist, Big John Cornyn said it was "premature" for the GOP to back Toomey, even though there are no other Republicans in the race (and the prospects of any getting in look slim).

DavidNYC :: PA-Sen: Toomey Gets Closer to Specter
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This might prompt Gerlach to get in
If he's going to have to fight another hard race (and he is), why not go for the gold?

His angle against Toomey is a little unclear, though.  


I'm...uh...less...I mean, far more, conservative!
Yeah!

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
PA
Again, I hope Sestak does not do this, I don't see him winning this and all he will end up doing is put at risk a House seat and also a seat in the PA Legislature most likely.  Why progressives are lining up behind him when hes not that much more liberal than Specter (If at all) boggles my mind.  We should be putting effort behind Jack Conway, Lee Fischer or Robin Carnahan right now.

Why doesn't Sestak run for Governor?  He would most likely be the biggest name and once he starts spending money would be the likely favorite I would think.

29/D/Male/NY-01


I tell you what...
could you post links to the votes where Specter and Sestak agree?  I keep hearing about how conservative or how moderate Sestak is but I never see anything to back it up and his progressive punch scores aren't that bad, especially when compared to Specter.  I'm just saying, I want to see some voting records to back up assertons on who's a liberal and who's not.

Secondly, this is about electing Better Democrats, we have a fillibuster proof majority as soon as Franken takes his seat and we will expand on that however this cycle works out from the looks of things.  Now it's a matter of electing Democrats that are going to stand up for people instead of corporations, back the President instead of oppose him, and stand up for Democratic principles.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com


[ Parent ]
Better Democrats?
I fear we're getting into dangerous territory here.  I'm about as far left as you can be, but I'm very wary of making the same mistakes the GOP did the last few cycles.  Pennsylvania's a blue state, and I'm reasonably comfortable with a Sestak-Toomey matchup (notwithstanding the fact that the good admiral comes with some baggage of his own), but it's not that blue, and it seems foolish to me to have to be defending seats in Pennsylvania (both the Senate seat and PA-07) when they are already yours. Except in the rarest of circumstances, and D is better than an R.

More broadly, I think we've seen that a party runs a great risk in purging itself of moderate voices. We won the election by winning the center, and we need to make sure they're the ones who are the certifiable "wingnuts".

Male, 23, DC-At Large


[ Parent ]
We won the so called center because they voted for change and it's our responsibility to deliver.
On issue after issue, from healthcare to the economy to the environment to Iraq, the American people line up with Democratic principles.  On the issues where they don't, such as gay marriage, the movement is in our direction.  The difference between us and the Republicans is that the American people like what we're selling.  But you're right, we shouldn't get arrogant, and we should constantly reaccess and make sure we are offering the voters the best possible product.

That said, being a Better Democrat is about more than left/right/center.  It's about integrity, it's about leadership and courage, it's about caring about and respecting the voters, and Snarlin' Arlen has shown time and again he has none of those qualities.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com


[ Parent ]
Um, it IS "that blue"
And "that blue" doesn't need to be very blue at all for the state to have a better Senator than Specter.

A primary challenge here is as win-win as we can hope for in a blue state.  

Besides, the whole idea of "better democrats" is just idiotic talk if you don't primary the single most conservative Democrat!  At the same time, if Specter wins, he gets supported in the general.


[ Parent ]
*any D


Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
... to say nothing of Bryan Lentz's state House seat, as Tekzilla alluded to


Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
He's a non-starter for governor
Why doesn't he try to become a larger player on national security issues in the House?

[ Parent ]
Because he wants to be a Senator
If you have a dream, go for it.

[ Parent ]
Sestak for Senate
This is a Win/Win for Democrats - Arlen Specter switched parties because he would lose in a primary to a very conservative Republican - Toomey.  Now a threatened primary battle with Sestak for the Democratic nomination looms!!  

The key votes on Employee Free Choice Act and Health Care Reform are soon to be cast.  Specter tried to win over the Republicans by promising to vote against both of these.  But now the unions and Dems are saying that they won't vote for Specter unless he changes his positions and supports Employee Free Choice and Health Care Reform

So we get a filibuster proof Senate with Specter as a Democrat and a chance that he will see his political future now lies with appeasing the Democrats.  Unions were a BIG factor in his reelection last time - he supported the Employee Free Choice Act then.  And they are going all out to pressure him now.

Unions/blacks/women decide elections in Pennsylvania.  Specter also has to overcome his support for Clarence Thomas with blacks and women.  This can get very interering.

Sestak makes the possibility of a hotly contested primary a reality.  And remember, Pennsylvania has a "sore loser" law so if you lose the primary, you are out.  No Lieberman's in PA.



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