Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, "North Carolina voters," Shuler trendlines from January). I've put each of the Dem candidates' favorables in brackets.
Elizabeth Edwards (D): 35
Richard Burr (R-inc): 46
Walter Dalton (D): 29 [24-29]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 48
Dan Blue (D): 33 [24-31]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 44
Richard Moore (D): 34 [36-25]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 47
Bob Etheridge (D): 31 [31-27]
Richard Burr (R-inc): 47
Cal Cunningham (D): 34 [46-16] ‡
Richard Burr (R-inc): 42
(MoE: ±3.5%)
‡ Cal Cunningham is a one-term state Senator & Iraq veteran (more here). PPP tested him using a positive two-sentence bio as a lead-in, to compensate for his otherwise low name rec - hence the high favorables. A February poll without the bio showed Cunningham with a 10-23 approval rating (sort of odd, huh?), but still holding Burr to a 46-27 margin.
Pulling together all the information we have, here's the state of the race: when Roy Cooper decided not to run Democrats lost the only candidate who would have made this an instant tossup. But Richard Burr is still in a vulnerable position pretty comparable to where Elizabeth Dole found herself at this time two years ago. But whoever the Democratic standard bearer ends up being will have to be molded into a formidable candidate, as Hagan was, rather than just inherently starting out as one.
Now Democrats are going to have to make a choice - do they get a Shuler or McIntyre who have big bank accounts and a good position from which to raise more or do they go more towards a Cunningham who might need more help raising money but can run as an outsider in an election cycle where not having any Washington taint could be a very good thing? It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
