I’ve been saving the changes in registration differences in the competitive districts that I track in my regular registration number updates. Here I will show the changes in registration going from the last numbers before the 2008 election to the latest numbers released a few days ago. Here they are in tabulated form. And for the congressional districts, in addition to the 8 Obama-Republican districts, I tossed in CA-04, because the House race there was very close in spite of the considerable Republican advantage in registration and the presidential race, and CA-46, the district of McCain’s closest win of the 11 McCain districts and the only one that he won with less than 50%.
Cross-posted at Calitics.
Numbers are over the flip.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS
| District |
10-08 DIFF |
02-09 DIFF |
03-09 DIFF |
05-09 DIFF |
| CA-03 |
R+2.19% |
R+1.93% |
R+1.91% |
R+1.85% |
| CA-04 |
R+14.88% |
R+14.68% |
R+14.64% |
R+14.69% |
| CA-24 |
R+6.40% |
R+6.13% |
R+6.04% |
R+5.99% |
| CA-25 |
R+2.37% |
R+1.68% |
R+1.63% |
R+1.52% |
| CA-26 |
R+5.57% |
R+4.96% |
R+4.92% |
R+4.83% |
| CA-44 |
R+8.25% |
R+7.52% |
R+7.68% |
R+7.77% |
| CA-45 |
R+4.60% |
R+3.98% |
R+3.99% |
R+4.27% |
| CA-46 |
R+12.16% |
R+11.79% |
R+11.57% |
R+11.47% |
| CA-48 |
R+16.12% |
R+15.78% |
R+15.46% |
R+15.37% |
| CA-50 |
R+9.20% |
R+8.90% |
R+8.98% |
R+8.87% |
STATE SENATE DISTRICTS
| District |
10-08 DIFF |
02-09 DIFF |
03-09 DIFF |
05-09 DIFF |
| SD-04 |
R+11.11% |
R+11.05% |
R+11.05% |
R+11.10% |
| SD-12 |
D+13.92% |
D+14.32% |
D+14.37% |
D+14.66% |
| SD-16 |
D+16.21% |
D+16.53% |
D+16.46% |
D+16.49% |
| SD-18 |
R+16.01% |
R+15.70% |
R+15.67% |
R+15.74% |
| SD-22 |
D+43.91% |
D+44.21% |
D+44.24% |
D+44.35% |
| SD-24 |
D+31.96% |
D+32.46% |
D+32.39% |
D+32.59% |
| SD-34 |
D+8.18% |
D+8.63% |
D+9.24% |
D+9.39% |
| SD-36 |
R+17.49% |
R+17.11% |
R+17.19% |
R+17.12% |
| SD-40 |
D+16.13% |
D+16.84% |
D+16.94% |
D+17.07% |
STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICTS
| District |
10-08 DIFF |
02-09 DIFF |
03-09 DIFF |
05-09 DIFF |
| AD-03 |
R+5.44% |
R+5.37% |
R+5.34% |
R+5.45% |
| AD-05 |
R+1.23% |
R+0.89% |
R+0.87% |
R+0.87% |
| AD-07 |
D+28.72% |
D+29.11% |
D+29.09% |
D+29.09% |
| AD-09 |
D+37.61% |
D+37.89% |
D+37.93% |
D+37.99% |
| AD-10 |
R+0.43% |
R+0.11% |
R+0.07% |
D+0.01% |
| AD-15 |
D+3.96% |
D+4.45% |
D+4.51% |
D+4.57% |
| AD-20 |
D+28.16% |
D+28.43% |
D+28.48% |
D+28.44% |
| AD-21 |
D+20.26% |
D+20.32% |
D+20.39% |
D+20.52% |
| AD-23 |
D+32.24% |
D+32.39% |
D+32.32% |
D+32.29% |
| AD-25 |
R+5.51% |
R+5.48% |
R+5.46% |
R+5.51% |
| AD-26 |
D+2.31% |
D+2.76% |
D+2.82% |
D+2.83% |
| AD-30 |
D+9.81% |
D+9.89% |
D+9.65% |
D+9.69% |
| AD-31 |
D+14.62% |
D+15.12% |
D+15.23% |
D+15.30% |
| AD-33 |
R+4.81% |
R+4.83% |
R+4.86% |
R+4.77% |
| AD-35 |
D+19.86% |
D+20.26% |
D+20.29% |
D+20.34% |
| AD-36 |
R+0.05% |
D+0.83% |
D+0.91% |
D+1.18% |
| AD-37 |
R+5.95% |
R+5.62% |
R+5.54% |
R+5.47% |
| AD-38 |
R+3.76% |
R+3.21% |
R+3.18% |
R+3.06% |
| AD-47 |
D+53.60% |
D+53.67% |
D+53.66% |
D+53.67% |
| AD-50 |
D+45.03% |
D+45.68% |
D+45.71% |
D+45.87% |
| AD-63 |
R+3.11% |
R+2.59% |
R+2.45% |
R+2.37% |
| AD-64 |
R+5.98% |
R+5.35% |
R+5.72% |
R+6.03% |
| AD-65 |
R+4.54% |
R+3.92% |
R+3.94% |
R+4.82% |
| AD-68 |
R+9.27% |
R+8.89% |
R+8.43% |
R+8.36% |
| AD-70 |
R+13.94% |
R+13.61% |
R+13.30% |
R+13.16% |
| AD-74 |
R+11.11% |
R+10.74% |
R+10.79% |
R+10.65% |
| AD-75 |
R+9.23% |
R+9.07% |
R+9.17% |
R+9.08% |
| AD-76 |
D+14.91% |
D+15.16% |
D+15.07% |
D+15.09% |
| AD-78 |
D+10.97% |
D+11.50% |
D+11.55% |
D+11.62% |
| AD-80 |
D+7.82% |
D+8.63% |
D+8.84% |
D+9.09% |
Thanks! For reference, do you know what the registration differences for these dates? Some districts look to be blue-ifying quicker than the state as a whole, some not as quick.