Google Ads


Site Stats

FL-17: The Race to Replace Meek

by: Crisitunity

Thu May 21, 2009 at 5:51 PM EDT


With Rep. Kendrick Meek vacating his seat for the unenviable task of running against Charlie Crist for the open Senate seat in Florida, that leaves a vacancy in this D+34 seat (the 13th most Democratic in the nation) based in the mostly-African-American suburbs to the immediate north of Miami. Like most vacancies in such dark-blue districts, it's attracting a crowded and diverse field in the Democratic primary.

The vacancy may produce a first: the first Haitian-American Congressperson. (Creole-speaking Haitians have a different set of concerns from non-Haitian African-Americans, with a focus on immigration.) It's the district with the nation's largest Haitian population (at least 16%, according to most recent Census estimates), and it's a community that Meek pays close attention to.

Three of the most prominent candidates already in the race are from the Haitian community: former state Rep. Phillip Brutus (the first Haitian-American elected to the state legislature), state Rep. Yolly Roberson, and activist Marleine Bastien. However, there may be several stumbling blocks preventing a Haitian candidate from winning: first, three candidates may split the Haitian vote, letting someone else win, and second, Brutus and Roberson are divorced from each other and are now bitter rivals, for whom the battle is seemingly personal.

With the Haitian vote split, odds would instead favor one of the non-Haitian African-American candidates. Shirley Gibson, the mayor of Miami Gardens (the largest city in the district with about 100,000 residents, although one that didn't exist until a few years ago, cobbled together out of unincorporated Carol City and its environs) just announced her candidacy on Tuesday, while state Sen. Frederica Wilson has been in the race since February.

There's one reason this race should be of particular interest to the netroots -- as I observed several weeks ago, New Dem Kendrick Meek is one of the biggest ideological mismatches with his district in the entire House, compiling the 126th most liberal record last Congress. In the quest for "Better Dems," he's doing us a big favor by getting out of the way without the time and expense of a primary fight (of course, his moderation, like that of Artur Davis, was probably in large measure due to his eagerness to move to statewide office -- understandable, but not something we have to thank him for, either).

And now, like the vacancy in AL-07 and the functional equivalent of a vacancy in LA-02, we have a free shot at electing a progressive to a dark blue seat previously held by a centrist... something the netroots needs to get on top of. There's only one problem... I really don't know much of anything else about any of these candidates, and the information out there is pretty inconclusive. So, I'm turning this over as a crowdsourcing question to any SSPers who know more about this district than I do: what else do we know about these candidates, especially where they might fall ideologically?

Crisitunity :: FL-17: The Race to Replace Meek
Tags: , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
With Crist running, Meek could change his mind
at some point and seek re-election.

I would guess he would
He can't beat Crist and he must surely know it.  Either that or he hopes that this statewide run boosts him for some other race down the road.  What this is I'm not sure as Alex Sink stands a good chance of being governor the next eight years and Bill Nelson will probably be senator at least another couple terms.

If he gets back in the House race, I wonder how many of his primary opponents will drop out?


[ Parent ]
But he can beat Rubio
So it might still be rational for him to stay in, on the off chance that Crist loses the primary (current polls be damned). Plus, he's racked up enough donations and union endorsements that he'd probably leave a lot of people holding grudges that would complicate things later for him if he bailed out now.

[ Parent ]
But realistically, what later complications could there be?
It's D+34 so he totally safe (unless gerrymandered by the R's in 2012).
Plus, he has a vast sum of money now to scare off all serious challengers.

However, my guess is he'll stay in the Senate race, lose the election, and wind up appointed as an under-secretary or something in Clinton's State Dept.
(Bill has been to FL three times fundraising for Meek's Senate bid, so the Clintons must really like him.)


[ Parent ]
Oh, I wasn't thinking in terms of
primary challenges; I was thinking more just in terms of behind-the-scenes alliances for getting things done, and simple matters like getting important people to return your phone calls. Or in terms of it casting a pall over his future attempts at running statewide. But you're right, he's sitting on a lot of cash now that's transferable (although, like I suggested, there'd be a lot of people wanting refunds), and all that Clinton goodwill is certainly transferable too.

[ Parent ]
If it doesn't work out
(which is a pretty solid bet if Crist wins the nomination, likewise a solid bet), I'm sure the Administration could find something for him to do.

[ Parent ]
but could he beat Rubio?
you heard it hear first (or if not first, then at least earlier than the traditional media), Crist is going to have his hands full with Rubio.  he is popular because he stands for very little, and Rubio is a hard hitter with the potential to get his voice known.  he has a chance in the same way that Toomey had a chance to take out Specter, only with lower name recognition.

it's a closed primary in Florida and there is a significant enough whacky rightwing presence and it is being taken over as a cause celeb on the rightwing blogs (who although virtually impotent at this stage are being wooed by folks with power on the right in order to create some semblance of parity with the left online).

however, as good as Rubio is at firing up the base on the stump, his dog whistles and fiery over-the-top rhetoric potentially would leave him vulnerable in the general with Meek presenting as the more reasonable more centrist alternative (it is after all the state that really likes Bill Nelson, the more boring alternative to wonder bread).

right now i would say Rubio has a 35% chance of picking off Crist in a pretty significant upset (depending if he hires the South Carolina people to start a whisper campaign about Crist being g-a-y), and a 40% chance of beating Meeks in the general.

don't count Rubio out.


[ Parent ]
I think Rubio will lose the general
he would have had a decent chance to win the general if Crist weren't in the primary, but by taking on Crist in such an ideological manner, he has painted himself as an extreme wingnut.

[ Parent ]
Don't Underestimate Rubio
He seems like a good politician with a bright future in the Republican party.  I don't think he'll beat Crist, but it's not a shocker if he does.  And, if he does beat Crist, I'd give him even odds against Meek.  Meek may try to paint him as a right winger, but he'll paint Meek as a big city radical liberal, at hte same time he (and Meek) both tack to the center.  People do not pay as much attention to the primary as you seem to think and candidates have always successfully shifted to the center.

[ Parent ]
The risk with that is
Crist might lose the primary to Rubio, whom Meek can beat, if Rubio has already painted himself in a corner as a wingnut.

If Rubio drops out, then Meek should as well.  But the stronger Rubio runs, the more appealing that Meek will find staying in.


[ Parent ]
Why should he drop out at all?
Crist deserves a race, just like every politician across the country.  We're not losing a seat here without Meek.  I don't see any point in him dropping out.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
He shouldn't
but from Kendrick Meek's perspective, and only his perspective, I would advise him to run for reelection if it were clear that Crist was the nominee.  He won't beat Crist and he might as well hold on to his district.

OTOH, from our perspective, it is great that Meek is running.


[ Parent ]
Dead girl, live boy?
Somebody steps in front of a truck? Meteorite falls on campaign bus?

You just never know what could happen unexpectedly in the Republican primary, or the election campaign, that could upset the early handicapping. We are still 17 months away from Election Day, after all. And Meek would look at weak, if not foolish, to get out of the Senate race now after so noisily getting into it.


[ Parent ]
how about fiance with a story to tell?
live boy more likely than dead girl, but fiance of convenience with stories to tell after a couple of vodka martinis is the most likely of all...

[ Parent ]
That's what I'm wondering.
When is the deadline to file the papers to run?

But I'm assuming Meek will stay in the Senate race. He may be counting on a battered and broke Crist emerging from the Repub primaries.
I think the rightwing CfG-type conservatives hate Crist soooo much that things will be extremely ugly and brutal in the R primary campaign, with a ton of anti-Crist money being spent in it.


[ Parent ]
Meek's said he's staying in no matter what.
It's tough, but not impossible, and worth it regardless.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
I don't see why Meek gets such a hard time.
Sure his district would let him have a voting pattern like Dennis Kucinich but he's still liberal for Florida as a whole.  And as far as his votes go, the only thing that's really bad that I know of is his vote on the bankruptcy bill, on which he sadly had plenty of company.

It's funny, the complaints on Meek is that he's either too liberal to get elected or he's a poor Democrat because he's not as liberal as his district...I just don't get it.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com


It's hard to be liberal enough
in a district like his. The Republicans really packed in the Democrats.

[ Parent ]
what's not to get?
too conservative for your overwhelmingly democratic district but too liberal/left of center for your basically even state?

the point is that if a seat has no chance of being lost, then someone should never once be voting for corporate priorities over those of the individual citizen...


[ Parent ]
Meek deserves to be given a hard time
since he would not even be in Congress, but for his mother, former Representative Carrie Meek.  She held the seat for five terms beginning in 1993.  Carrie Meek was far more liberal than her son (shades of Birch and Evan Bayh).  She protested the electoral college certification of George Bush after the 2000 election.

[ Parent ]
But he's not
He's 121 per progressive punch, just below Nita Lowey and above Betsy Markey (at who's score I'm shocked).  In contrast, Hastings is at 102, and DWS is 60.  Wexler's at 149, which I find really strange, except maybe on Middle East issues.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
This district is more democratic than Dennis Kucinich's


[ Parent ]
Kucinich's district isn't that liberal
It's D+8, which isn't bad, but no better than Delaware.

[ Parent ]
He gets a hard time
Because his job isn't to represent Florida as a whole. At least not yet.

Senator and Representative are different jobs with different constituencies.


[ Parent ]
Robeson
Looks iffy on labor and many other issues.  From VoteSmart, he seems like a Chamber of Commerce type.  Not TOO bad on conservation, but we can do better.  Brutus is focusing on immigration reform and supporting the President's economic agenda, but I can't find much original stuff.  Wilson's better on labor issues, but not by much.  The Florida Progressive Coalition must have different numbers.  They say the most progressive are Brise and Roberson (but there's dissension around Roberson).  IDK about Bastien because she doesn't hold office (though she did go to bat in the Florida disenfranchisement battle).  Looks like Florida AFL-CIO isn't exactly friends with Brutus either.  This one might revolve almost entirely around local issues.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

most progressive
would be Sewell in AL-7.  But the other two would be progressive as well.  


Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox