Another SUSA poll

SUSA has a new MN Gov poll for KSTP TV (Sorry, no link yet). They polled Pawlenty against 9 differnt challengers. They showed half the results on the early news and will show the other half on their late news. Results released so far (of course they released the tier 2 challengers first).

Pawlenty 51%
Kelliher 34%

Pawlenty 51%
Thissen 32%

Pawlenty 51%
Marty 34%

Pawlenty 52%
Bakk 34%

Pawlenty 50%
Gaertner 36%

They will release results for Entenza, Rybak, Chris Coleman and Dayton on their late news.

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by: MinnesotaMike @ Wed May 20, 2009 at 20:07:43 PM CDT

SUSA in MN

Weren't SUSA polls the ones that had Franken down like 10 the entire 08 election season?  If so, their MN polls are not the standard of quality.

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by: benjso99 @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 02:30:34 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

IIRC

It was Franken's screwy polling plus they were the only ones who showed McCain competitive.  Heres a poll pre-convention showing Obama only up by 2%.  Pre-convention was in August when his polling was taking off wasn't it?

The rest of the polls were released as well.  I spose I cant make another diary since I just did one on gay marriage.  (damn rules of ettitquette)

maybe one of those three will do a front pager.  Although the poll isn't very revealing.  The candidates with low name recognition are down by like 15-19% and the ones who people have heard of getting within 5% with those being Dayton and Rybak.  Coleman does a bit better as the Mayor of St Paul but it pretty much shows a baseline and if the candidate is even moderately well know, they get pretty close and it is quite a DANGER DANGER poll for Pawlenty, but we all knew he was in trouble.

here's a blog post by Populista over at Minnesota Progressive Project.

shit now, I forgot if this was in the open thread or not, sorry if it isn't.

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by: Andrew @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 11:02:49 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

To repeat a comment from the right side

For all of the Sturm und Drang about T-Mac being evil, evil, evil, it looks like the Democrat who would have the hardest time against McDonnell is actually Moran.

And if you look at how the undecideds are allocated, it actually looks like either T-Mac or Deeds (if he can come up with cash after the primary) could beat McDonnell.

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by: andgarden @ Wed May 20, 2009 at 20:31:14 PM CDT

"Evil, evil, evil"

Who ever said that someone who was evil, evil, evil couldn't win an election? He can be evil and still win a primary, especially in a three-way contest.

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by: armand @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 09:04:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well, I make fun of the "evil, evil, evil"

because as far as I can tell it's not based on much.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 09:45:01 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

va gov

this is a must win for our side. if the rethugs manage to take both va and nj their noise machine will be unbearable. a total rejection of the dems! it makes me ill just thinking about it.

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by: boca-ron5126 @ Wed May 20, 2009 at 21:45:05 PM CDT

don't forget michigan!!

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by: boca-ron5126 @ Wed May 20, 2009 at 21:46:05 PM CDT

Somewhere out There, Jerome Armstrong is Crying

Again.

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by: trowaman @ Wed May 20, 2009 at 22:09:45 PM CDT

He's not crying.

He's just been cutting onions. He's making a lasagna... for one.

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by: James L. @ Wed May 20, 2009 at 22:20:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Heh

It took me a minute, but I knew I had heard that before.

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by: Fitzy @ Wed May 20, 2009 at 22:39:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm still convinced that McAuliffe is a poison pill.

The guy's a joke.  He parachutes into Virginia after living in Florida and New York, after helping to make a mess of the party as DNC chairman, and he comes to these voters with his horrible corporate record and has the call to ask for ordinary folks' votes like he's been looking out for them all his life.  I'm sorry, when we elect guys like this, we lose all credibility with poor, working, and middle-class Americans, the people we need to be stringing together in our coalition.  Looking ahead, I don't think McAuliffe would be able to maintain his seeming strength over the long run of the general election, and as much as I hate to say it if we nominate such a cynical choice for a candidate then we might deserve a kick in the rear from the voters.  I would much rather chance it with Deeds or Moran (I really like Deeds though I agree more with Moran) and a come from behind underdog campaign then have Terry trying to buy this race and giving voters a reason to be cynical about the party and our commitment to them.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

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by: ARDem @ Wed May 20, 2009 at 23:16:36 PM CDT

I don't know if I can vote for McAuliffe in November

I've been trying to keep an open mind about him, but I heard him on the radio last week and he just made my skin crawl. He sounded like a used car salesman. Everything out of his mouth was platitudes agreeing with whatever the callers were asking him about.

That said, Moran's primary campaign has been disgusting (the fact that he has Jerome Armstrong pimping for him on MyDD should tell you all you need to know), and I hope he comes in third. I'm voting for Deeds and I'm hoping for a miracle there. It might happen if turnout is low enough.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 06:53:57 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I agree with that

when it comes to Democratic primaries, look at whom Jerome Armstrong supports and vote for the other guy.

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by: IHateBush @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 09:02:30 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

You know,

I've thought for a long time that if the Moran McAuliffe contest gets to nasty the undecideds might swing over to Deeds.  I agree with Moran more than I do Deeds, but I would be happy with him as the nominee.

Stop complaining and whining and get to work.

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by: ARDem @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 14:41:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Can Deeds win in Nov?

If he can, then hopefully the Moran voters start to jump to Deeds in the last few days, if the polls continue this trend.  I agree T-Mac is a risk.  

Is Deeds a good guy? an electable guy? Is he taking a lot of punches so far, or not so much?  What kind of a match is he for McDonnell?  

If the only obstacle is money that can and likely will be removed if Deeds is the nominee.   Losing VA and NJ would be a serious setback for The dem's.  The GOP will spin the crap out of that.    

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by: vicupstate @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 07:57:33 AM CDT

You won't hear a bad thing said about Deeds among Democrats

he is a gentleman politician of the highest order. Basically everyone who supports Moran or McAuliffe says the same thing: "I like Creigh, I just don't agree with him on some issues."

I don't necessarily agree with the idea that Creigh is that conservative -- I think he's a pretty mainstream Democrat, but being a rural Dem is conservative on a few issues like gun control.

As to whether or not he's electable:

http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/El...

Creigh came within 323 votes of beating McDonnell despite being outspent $4 million to $3 million. I think if anyone can take the Mark Warner strategy of appealing to rural voters, it's Creigh.  

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 17:44:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

how many of the T-Mac haters were Gerry Connolly haters in that primary last year?

I don't know VA politics that well, but it seems like there's a bit of a disconnect between the progressive base and the average primary voter or general election voter.

I mean one could easily have accused Mark Warner of being an evil corporate shill buying the Gov's mansion, too.  And thank God he did.  MacAuliffe's sins are unclear to me.

He is accused of mismanaging the DNC by neglecting the grassroots.  Fair criticism and an honest philosphical difference, but again, the average VA resident couldn't care less, if they could be bothered to see the distinction.  And I believe that most of our losses in the early 2000s and most of our victories in the later 2000s can be attributed to GW Bush, not either Howard Dean or McAuliffe's strategery:)

I hear people saying he's "poison" or "evil," but those are just ugly names.  I want to hear the real issues and how they affect his electability.  He's a "carpetbagger?"  Well, how long has he lived in VA?  Is that how VA residents (many of whom may have lived in VA for a shorter time than he has) see him?

What are his commitments re: right to work states, school and infrastucture investment, a woman's right to choose, the environment?

I really don't care much about any of these candidates, I just want a democrat to win, and as i dig around, I can't seem to find a debilitating weakness.

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by: st paul sage @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 10:50:58 AM CDT

As far as I can tell, he's a mainstream Democrat

on all of the issues that matter. I doubt if he disagrees with the President on anything of substance.

I think the brief of him is that he's evil by association: he had the temerity to support both Clintons. In other words, extended CDS. Other than that, there really doesn't seem to be much.

I don't vote in Virginia, but if I did, I would not be reflexively opposed to Terry.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 11:04:36 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

More His Style Than His Issues

I don't think the problems with him stem as much with his Clinton associations as they do with his interpersonal style and his big-money past.  

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by: armand @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 14:42:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm willing to admit I was wrong about Connolly

He has proved to be a good soldier in Congress.

Also, if you're counting Virginia bloggers as the "progressive base", you'll find a lot of support for McAuliffe.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 17:54:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Research 2000 finds Deeds way back

McAuliffe 36%
Moran 22%
Deeds 13%.

The only thing that all the polls agree on is that McAuliffe is pulling away.  Ugh.

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by: skaje @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 14:14:05 PM CDT

They also show McDonnell well below 50

They actually look very simialr to 2005. Personally, I think McAuliffe can win.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 14:42:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

ditto

What was the General election numbers?

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by: trowaman @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 15:15:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

NM

Kos just front paged it.

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by: trowaman @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 15:16:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yeah

I think any of the three Democrats could win, whoever comes out on top will probably poll much better after the primary.  

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by: skaje @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 18:14:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I imagine the general election polls will improve after the primary

Once the primary season is over, I just hope the losers of the primary can support the winner in the general election.  Overall I'm not surprised by these numbers, but I'm more worried about the enthusiasm gap within the Democratic Caucus.  The winner of the primary will probably have no more than 40-45% of the vote, and that may be optimistic.  Hopefully the base will come together so we can keep the governor's mansion another 4 years.

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Thu May 21, 2009 at 15:31:10 PM CDT

PPP

McAuliffe 29% (30)
Deeds 20% (14)
Moran 20% (20)

http://www.publicpolicypolling...

That makes two-out-of three polls with some momentum for Creigh Deeds. I'm not sure if it'll be enough though.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri May 22, 2009 at 12:55:02 PM CDT