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OK-Gov: Republicans Post Big Leads in First Poll of the Race

by: James L.

Wed May 20, 2009 at 3:38 PM EDT


The field isn't even firmly set on the Republican side, but the GOP begins the open seat race to replace Democratic Gov. Brad Henry in Oklahoma with a big advantage over the two announced Democratic candidates.

Public Policy Polling (5/13-17, registered voters):

Drew Edmondson (D): 38
Mary Fallin (R): 48

Drew Edmondson (D): 39
J.C. Watts (R): 47

Jari Askins (D): 34
Mary Fallin (R): 50

Jari Askins (D): 36
J.C. Watts (R): 47
(MoE: ±3.7%)

Now, there's still a lot of time left on the clock, but those are some pretty impressive numbers for Team Red, considering that both Askins (the sitting Lt. Governor) and AG Edmondson have been elected statewide before in their own right (Edmondson a whopping four times). While both Askins and Edmondson have some room to grow, it's not like we're looking at a repeat of 2002, when Henry, as a little-known state senator, stole upsets in both the primary and general elections.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
James L. :: OK-Gov: Republicans Post Big Leads in First Poll of the Race
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OK-Gov: Republicans Post Big Leads in First Poll of the Race | 60 comments
You mean the state where you can
run ads like this one and win big?

Uhhhh.

I Hate Whisper Lady


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Yup, the very one from McCain and Dole
Same ad shop.

She makes my skin crawl.

[ Parent ]
What about this
ad upsets you so? It kinda looks like a run of the mill tv ad really.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
It's way over the top
Let me ask you a question: what do you think the intended meaning of that B&W picture of Andrew Rice is? Better example in this ad.

The implication is pretty clear to me.  

[ Parent ]
Im sorry
I dont get the implication. I actually think it would be a great picture of him if he was smiling more.  

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
I think it's pretty obvious that Inhofe
gay baited Rice. It's a patently bigoted attack; one that obviously works in Oklahoma.
[ Parent ]
I dont see it.
I think Rice starting a pro-same sex marriage group is him jumping right into the middle of that debate and bringing it up doesnt automatically equal gay batting. So I think its fair to look at his political activities. The same could be said for anyone starting a pro-traditional marriage group as well.

Im no fan of Inholf, infact I think hes one of the most lackluster Senators on our side and see nothing special about him. But I dont see that coming from this ad.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

[ Parent ]
I think the juxtaposition along with
the disgustingly taunting voice is unmistakable.
[ Parent ]
I agree too,
and the very choice and pose of the picture. The entire ad is meant to emasculate him and suggest he is gay.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I'm sorry, but when an add has two guys on a wedding cake in it,
[ Parent ]
Gay baiting, yes, but...
it IS a stretch to say the ad implies that Rice is/was gay.  It clearly was meant to shoot down his clean-cut image, with the slightly 'roughkin looking' picture.

The purpose of the ad was to cast Rice as liberal, not as clean cut as he appears, and out of step with OK values. But it is a stretch to think that MOST people seeing the ad would think or get the impression that Rice himself is gay.  

I say this as a gay man that twice gave a contribution to Rice (one of only two candidates that I gave to that year).

That said, I'm sure Inhofe wouldn't mind if anyone did jump to that conclusion.  

This ad might flirt with the 'line' but doesn't cross it, IMO.

BTW, It wasn't that long ago that a bad picture of a candidate (ie hippy hair) was the kiss of death.  Rice's picture wouldn't have reached that level, but a couple more inches of hair and it would have.          

[ Parent ]
I agree with Kyle
Pretty standard stuff, I don't see any line crossing here.  Much like the GOP crocodile tears when Baucus showed the video of his Republican opponent rubbing skin cream on another dude's face.
[ Parent ]
It's not the ad
It's the Voice Actor. I hate her voice, it's like being scolded by your mom. Hate it.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Who did Henry upset in the Dem primary?

i forget but it was an upset, he was just a 39 year old
senator and no where as conservative as you'd think for a successful statewide Democrat. The state has just become so unimaginably conservative I can't see Democrats holding on their anymore.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I really don't understand the forces behind that.
While the rest of the country seems to be moving our way, Oklahoma looks like it's just rotting with crazy from the indside out.  What gives there?

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Oklahoma and Texas were late to the Demise-of-Southern-Democrats party.
Texas Democrats were strong into the mid nineties, and I surmise that Oklahoma Democrats were as well.  A lot of the white rurals didn't stop voting Democratic at the local level until Clinton's second term or so.  And given that Oklahoma is pretty much like Texas, but without the cities, the border, or the rural blacks, there has been absolutely nothing to swing it back toward the middle the way Texas is now swinging back.  

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08
[ Parent ]
What about the Native American population?
Is there room to breakthrough there?

And what about young voters? Is the trend promising in Oklahoma?

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
DemographiC
It's 8.1% AA and 11.4% Native American.  Problem is outside of Oklahoma City and OK-02 in Little Dixie, we only have about 6% each.  FWIW, 25.9% of Oklahomans are under 18.  These sound like good numbers, and the Native American population is higher (on average) than even South Dakota, but the cities aren't hospitable enough to make up the difference (nothing like the white population in southeastern South Dakota and the Black Hills.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Had to look it up
but it was some guy named Vince Orza, who as far as I can tell never held office but spent a lot of his own money (by Oklahoma standards) on the race. Orza actually won the primary but by less than 50%, and then Henry won the runoff.
[ Parent ]
I would like to see
a poll on how the primary is looking on both sides of this race. I personally have always been a fan of Mary Fallin since she ran for Congress so I would like to see her get the GOP nod.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
No you don't.
Mary Fallin appears sane next to guys like Randy Brogdon but she's really just as bad as they come. Look no further than her voting record thus far.  

I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat
[ Parent ]
Two Polls
Sooner Poll
Fallin 45
Watts 26

http://www.tulsaworld.com/news...

Wilson Research Strategies
Watts 39
Fallin 36

http://www.w-r-s.com/blog/2009...

Both polls were taken around the same time.  Not sure which is more accurate--I'd guess an average of the two is about right.

[ Parent ]
Wow
lol, kinda different pictures there huh?

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.
[ Parent ]
i don't get it
has'nt brad henry been a pretty good governor? what do the good citizens of oklahoma think they are going to get with someone like watts, good goverment?
Federal v. State
Oklahomans lean strongly Republican in federal races.  They would rather have someone restraining Obama's agenda rather than someone voting for it.  Just the way it is.
[ Parent ]
so...
...the average oklahoman would rather have tax cuts for the rich and multi-national corporations than health care? that's really going to work out well for them.
[ Parent ]
He only got into office on sort-of a "fluke"
His win in 2002 was one one of the biggest suprises of the night (and one of the few plesant ones for Democrats), and only got like 43% of the vote.  There was another Republican running as in Independent who got like 15% of the vote -- without that, no one probably would ever have heard of Brad Henry.

Once in office, yes, he was seen as a good, largely conservative (of the sane variety) governor, and was overwhelmingly re-elected.  But it's getting people to vote for a Democrat in the first place -- and that's rapidly slipping away from us in most of Oklahoma.

[ Parent ]
one would think...
...that after 8 years of bush and gop control "democrat' would'nt be such a hard sell.
[ Parent ]
No disrespect to the good democrats who do live there, but ...
... I'll gladly give up the support of Oklahoma and a few other places (WV, KY, TN, AL) for pretty much the rest of the country moving in our direction!
[ Parent ]
i agree...
don,t want to write off any part of the country but it just seems some places revel in their conservatism. i've lived in south florida for 20 years, but grew up in connecticut. would move back asap if i could.
[ Parent ]
I know how you feel.
I'd move back to my native SoCal in a heartbeat if I wasn't broke, from uber-conservative northeast Tarrant County (Grapevine, Southlake, Colleyville).

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
it's a relief...
...knowing i'm not the only one who feels this way!
[ Parent ]
Maybe
Maybe we can work to change it.  I'm in SW Fort Worth--that's almost like next door neighbors for the internet.
[ Parent ]
why not...
... florida and then texas!!!
[ Parent ]
Hold on to your hat
I think Florida might yet be redeemed.  
[ Parent ]
i have my fingers crossed!
fla. could'nt get any worse.
[ Parent ]
I think Lean Republican is unfortunately and accurate...
assessment at this point. I'm a big Edmondson supporter. He's not a perfect progressive but he's fighter. His long tenure as AG and his family gives him extremely high name ID so a tough primary with Askins won't help us at all.  

I'm a Ralph Yarborough Democrat
I'd say more like Likely Republican
when you consider how big the margins are right now and the low likelihood that Brad Henry will get into the race, combined with it not being certain that we'll have an open seat anyway.  It is early, though, so maybe not.
[ Parent ]
Brad Henry is term-limited out of office
So there's no chance that he's running for a third term -- we're definitely dealing with an open seat here.
[ Parent ]
Oops
In my sleep-deprived, allergen-infused state I was thinking of the Senate race.  Never mind!
[ Parent ]
Ugh
I was really hoping for better here.
oh well,
i guess i can cross oklahoma off my list of places to live if can ever manage to get the hell out of south florida.
In 2006, Democrats controlled 8 of 9 statewide offices
plus the State Senate.  Since then, Republicans have gained seats in the State House (now 61R-40D), taken over the State Senate and appear poised to reclaim statewide offices in 2010 (especially if both Edmondson and Askins leave their current positions).

Is this trend toward the GOP based mainly on ideology or are there any issues specific to Oklahoma that are causing it?

What I've been told
is that it's right wing Christianity becoming the almost exclusive basis for political identification there.  You're either for it and its agenda, or against it.

Conservative Christianity is what people have as an identity and life-guiding 'philosophy' when they leave farms and farming.  The anti-choice system of beliefs comes from the fertility cult parts of agrarian religion/beliefs, in my opinion.

Actual farmers need and support (even if grudgingly) the farming policies and protections for blue collar workers that Democrats uphold.  That's a relatively old demographic, though, iirc and is shrinking.

So it's a generic process in a way.  But in a lot of the country this leaving of the farms and small towns is much further along, peaking in partisan political effect between the Fifties and Nineties.  There's a north-south gradient of it.  In the Plains, the northern Plains (MT/ND/SD) peaked out for Republicans in the Nineties and first Bush term and are going Democratic again.  (They're part of the Northeastern band of settlement westward, so they're culturally closer to the Northeast.)  Nebraska and Kansas seem close to or just past their Republican/soc con peaks too.  But in comparison to their Kerry vote percentage their Obama vote percentages seem a bit high.  There might be a few percent protest votes against the national GOP there.

Oklahoma and rural Texas are latecomers, having the serious runs of farmers' and small town kids to the suburbs and exurbs of OKC, Tulsa, DFW, and Houston at the moment.  They'll generally go to right wing Christian churches and vote Republican out of perceived loyalty to their origins, parental pressures, from what they were taught to trust, and who they were taught they are relative to the degenerate urban liberals.  Their kids partially follow in their footsteps, partially balk.  Look at Atlanta suburbia for the general picture.

[ Parent ]
Oklahoma ranked #2 in white evangelical born again
Christians as a portion of the electorate (according to the 2008 exit polls).  Also, Oklahoma has been getting less rural (36% in 2008 vs. 41% in 1980), about on pace with the national trend.  Your description of what is going on in Oklahoma appears to be right on target.
[ Parent ]
Oklahoma and Texas have another issue
in the rural areas, racism.  It is an issue in Kansas as well, but not as much.  
[ Parent ]
This sucks...
I think it's clear we'll probably lose this governorship. I don't really think we can be competitive in the US Senate race either. What can you expect out of Oklahoma though? The only Democrat we have in Congress from that state might as well be a Republican.  
I miss Brad Carson.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I really like him, too
But even he couldn't come within single digits in his 2004 Senate run.
[ Parent ]
Boren runs for Senate
Carson runs for the House.  Win-win, regardless of how Boren does.
[ Parent ]
I could live with that
But something tells me that Boren isn't gonna leave his safe perch anytime soon.
[ Parent ]
Interesting
I like Carson too but I remember him being the bane of the blogosphere during his senate run, as many of the keyboard strategists just knew they could run a better campaign than Carson's.

[ Parent ]
In the next part of this poll release
PPP finds that Oklahomans think Rush Limbaugh's vision for the country is better than Obama's.

Is this place a state or a mental institution?  

It's just speculation...
but this PPP poll reminds me of the one they did recently in CO which seemed to overstate support for Republicans there.  I wonder if they're having issues here.  
[ Parent ]
I've read
a fair amount on the Internets of Oklahoma liberals saying they're mostly drowned in hordes of Christian Right people and propaganda in most of the state.  Apparently enough liberal thinking people are concentrated in parts of OKC and parts of Tulsa and some rural areas for those to feel pretty liveable, though.
[ Parent ]
Shifting, Shifting, Shifting
OKC is becoming Democratic, rural east Oklahoma (bordering Arkansas) is becoming more Republican.

Sooner or later OK-5 will be democratic and OK-2 will be an area that depends on the candidate. Amazingly the two areas are shifting at a rate that they are canceling each other out at a statewide rate.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
OK-2 may already have reached that point
Sure, race played a large part in Obama's terrible performance there, but the district elected Coburn and Oklahoma's recent sudden swing right can't just be put down to the other districts.

Boren can win, because people remember his father (and also that his father was no liberal - a pretty terrible anti-union Democrat, in point of fact) and also note that he's pretty conservative to boot.

I suspect any successor, even if they were as conservative as him, would have a tough time winning election.

[ Parent ]
interesting
And fits to the pattern we've seen for a while, of pre-1968 Old Democrat -> Republican shift.  And Republican -> (liberal/New) Democratic shift 15-25 years later on.

2010/2012 are going to be kind of sobering elections, I think.  My models have slight net Democratic gains in each but consolidate partisan power regionally.  Center Right politicians- conservative Democrats in the South/Plains,  'moderate' Republicans everywhere else- are going to be the net losers.  

[ Parent ]
OK-Gov: Republicans Post Big Leads in First Poll of the Race | 60 comments

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