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NC-Sen: DSCC Looking at Four Potential Recruits

by: James L.

Mon May 18, 2009 at 3:52 PM EDT


With Roy Cooper out of the running for the Democratic nomination against GOP non-entity Richard Burr, CNN reports that the DSCC is putting out feelers to four potential candidates -- including one who previously passed on the race:

Still, the DSCC - which is otherwise staying mum on the recruitment process - is taking four Democratic candidates seriously at the moment, according to a committee source.

Their top candidates are, in no particular order: Rep. Heath Shuler, the former NFL quarterback and second term congressman from western North Carolina's 11th district; Rep. Bob Etheridge from the Raleigh-area second district; former state Treasurer Richard Moore, who lost in the state's Democratic gubernatorial primary last year; and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton.

Shuler, who declined to run for this race back in March, has been receiving encouragement to reconsider the race from Dem groups in DC and North Carolina, according to a spokesperson.

Aside from Shuler, who brings a unique strength in western NC to a hypothetical race, the DSCC appears to looking at candidates with a statewide track record first, and they have a lot to choose from here. Dalton, a former state senator, won the Lt. Governor's race by a five-point margin in 2008, while Etheridge served for two terms as NC's Superintendent of Public Instruction from 1988-1996. (Additionally, Etheridge's Raleigh-area district, which Obama carried last fall, would be an easier hold for Democrats than Shuler's or Mike McIntyre's seats.) However, Etheridge is getting a bit long in the tooth for someone looking to join the Senate -- he'll be 69 years old by election day in 2010.

For more details on the long list of potential nominees, the Winston-Salem Journal has a brief rundown on the DSCC's top four choices and many other possible recruits.

(H/T: Political Wire)
James L. :: NC-Sen: DSCC Looking at Four Potential Recruits
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NC-Sen: DSCC Looking at Four Potential Recruits | 48 comments
We can do better than Shuler

Agreed
If a true(r) progressive beat the Dole "brand," we can certainly do better than Shuler.

[ Parent ]
Well, I wouldn't go that far on Kay Hagan.
But she's great just the same.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
She's Def To The Left of Shuler (N/T)

[ Parent ]
True that.
Though that's not hard to do...

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
The great thing about Kay
is that she really provides great constituent service.  I know two different Republicans who voted for her because she always was present at any events that were important to the people of Guilford County.  They assumed that if she cares about her home county, she would show the same care for the state.  She also has done a great job through the years of establishing strong bonds with local leaders, both political and business.  My company's CEO, who due to a merger no longer lives in NC, gave more money to Kay than any other candidate last year.
[ Parent ]
I like Shuler alright
I guess here in GA its a little tougher for a Democrat to win than in NC against a crappy opponent like Burr but I really admire Shuler's ability to win a district that is fairly similar to North GA yet which elected him pretty convincingly in 2006 and 2008 which I do not really understand so well.

But yeah if I could have my pick none of these would be it but I'm really happy to think of NC being a two Democrat delegation in the US Senate considering where it was until recently (pre-2006 I suppose).

Shuler's not that strong
Western NC is not nearly as Republican as north Georgia is today. Obama only lost 47-52 and Kerry was defeated 43-57.

In GA-10 and GA-11, on the other hand, nobody since Clinton has broken 40% and in GA-09 the figure is 30%.

Shuler would probably perform strongly in NC as a whole (although not much stronger than a much better candidate for Democratic partisans.) He'd still get annihilated in north Georgia, just like any other candidate.

[ Parent ]
Yeah I agree
I just wonder what the difference is between western NC and north GA and coming from the latter without knowing the difference (I know Asheville is a big Democratic city) seeing him win so convincingly is impressive.  
[ Parent ]
it's a question that's troubled me
for a long while. Why are north GA and western TN different from eastern NC and WV?

It's all generically appalachia. Do we have an appalachian historian on hand to explain? I have a theory that places that had more coal had more unions, and were more hospitable to Democrats. Whereas places without coal maintained their Republican Lincoln/Union impulse.  

[ Parent ]
Thanks andgarden
I appreciate that someone else is interested in this topic. But Western NC is not that coal intensive yet has a pretty strong Democratic organization. There must be something to it and coal surely explains WV pretty well but Western VA and NC are pretty Democratically friendly on a local level but just across the line in TN and GA things have been pretty terrible, especially lately.  
[ Parent ]
Coal explains WV now
But WV is much more Democratic even now than eastern Kentucky, where coal is also key but where Democrats have fallen back much further than in WV.

I'd be inclined to put north Georgia's terrible record down partly to urbanisation, but I think in each case there are subtly different reasons. Keep trying to explain it though, I'm enjoying the anthropological element here.

[ Parent ]
western NC
This is based at least partly on observation as I've been to both western NC and the Atlanta area in the last few years.

Western NC is a retirement and tourist zone.  Heck, the name of Asheville's minor league baseball team was and maybe still is the Asheville Tourists.  My brother has a retirement home in the district (he votes in FL-14).  I don't know if I can prove it statistically but many of the retirees and tourists are from Florida.  This is where Floridians come to beat the stifling summers (hey, I used to live and work in and around Clearwater).

Asheville has a reputation of being artsy.  Some of the surrounding towns try for that feel but politically don't vote the same.  I would expect the area to trend Democratic.

North Georgia is the Atlanta suburbs and exurbs and is growing like crazy (or was until the last year or so).  Lots of over-mortgaged McMansions.  Taxes are the big GOP draw.  Atlanta's suburbs (and that excludes Atlanta, itself, now comprise half the population of Georgia (4.8 million out of 9.6 million) and grew by over 1 million people between 2000 and 2008.  In fact, the suburban part of Fulton County (Atlanta's County) slightly outnumbers the population of the city of Atlanta (528,000 to 486,000 for Atlanta proper).

As North Georgia gets more ethnically diverse like many suburbs it will probably slowly swing a bit less Republican and eventually Democratic.  That is going to take a while.  The nearer suburbs are more Democratic than the further ones.  That is a good sign.  Some of the suburbs have substantial black and or hispanic populations but not the newer ones.  Not yet.

[ Parent ]
Where are the women? (Or Grier Martin for that matter?)
North Carolina has four Democratic women elected statewide, not counting Kay Hagan.  So, why in the world aren't any of them on the list?  Between Sec. of State Elaine Marshall, State Auditor Beth Wood, State Treasurer Janet Cowell, and Superintendent June Atkinson, there's some great talent among Democratic women in North Carolina.

On top of that, why isn't the popular, and rather dynamic, Grier Martin up on that list?  Hell, last time Shumer tried to keep Kay Hagan out so Grier would run, and he's definately a rising star in NC.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

Amen to that
Elaine Marshall should be at the top of the list. State Rep. Melanie Goodwin should be, too. Wood and Cowell were just elected in 2008, so it may be too soon for them to move up.

Shuler, Dalton, Etheridge - that list of virtual Blue Dogs just makes me shudder.

Etheridge is too old to run, and I don't think Shuler or Dalton could win the Democratic primary 1 on 1 vs a progressive candidate.

Dalton only won the Lt Gov primary in 2008 beacause the progressive vote was split 3 ways.

[ Parent ]
I would like to see a woman elected also
I am friends with Beth Wood, the state auditor, and I can tell you that the only thing she wants to do is work as state auditor.  Beth, for the most part, is non-partisan.  

I voted for Elaine Marshall in the 2002 US Senate Democratic primary...I really like her.  But she's close to 65 and from people who work with her tell me, she's more likely to hang it up in the next few years.

Janet Cowell is a rising star, but she's probably several years away from making a big jump to the US Senate.  She was just elected in 2008 as Treasurer.

Melanie Goodwin--I don't know much about her besides she's the wife of our Secretary of Insurance, Wayne Goodwin.  I'm fairly intuned with NC politics, and her name doesn't have much name recognition with me yet.  I would like to know more about her...she could be the next Kay Hagan.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Goodwin and Female Elected Officials with Young Children
I think Melanie Goodwin would be hesitant to run since she has two children under 10 with one that is 1 or soon will be.  With her representing Hamlet which is about 2 hours from Raleigh where her husband works as Insurance Commissioner, I don't think she would run for a position that would keep her away from her children and husband more than they probably are apart due to the distance between the two places.

Women that enter the political arena with young children interest me.  I know Blanche Lincoln declined to run for reelection to her U.S. House seat because she was pregnant.  I don't think that happens much.  Many women, like Nancy Pelosi, probably decline to run for offices until their children are at least teenagers.  

[ Parent ]
Look at Kirsten Gillibrand
she had a baby last year and was just promoted to Senator.
[ Parent ]
And Lincoln ran for the Senate
two years later.
[ Parent ]
Reason for Dalton's Win
Did Walter Dalton win because of a split in the progressive vote or was his win due to him being on television?  Hampton Dellinger was the only other Dem LG candidate for whom I saw TV ads.  I am pretty sure that Dalton raised more money than Dellinger and the other LG candidates and thus was able to run more ads and have more exposure.
[ Parent ]
Ugh... the Walter Dalton ad
I'm Tarheel born, and I'm Tarheel bred, and one day I'll be Tarheel dead.  

I'm also a Democrat, and Walter Dalton's ads may have been the most annoying ad in the Tarheel State in 2008.  The only thing I heard was "blah blah blah Walter Dalton, Walter Dalton, blah blah Walter Dalton Walter Dalton, blah Walter Dalton Walter Dalton Walter Dalton".

I think his ad said his name a dozen times in 30 seconds.  I always thought his camp cut that ad because of name recognition.

Anyway, I think he probably was elected because his name was stated so many times as opposed to a split in the progressive vote.  You just didn't hear the other candidate ads as much.  Although annoying, the ad was very effective.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Not Shuler.
Honestly, he may be the only kind of Dem who could win his district, but statewide we can elect more moderate candidates.  If Heath is the nominee, I'd probably vote for Burr, since if we're going to have a Senator blocking the President's agenda, I'd rather it be a Republican.  However, I could support any of the other people mentioned.  I hope Marshall runs.  Also, Moore could do well if he's willing to mend some bridges.  But if Burr is reelected I'll find it awfully hard to support Cooper in any future races - we deserve a much better senator and their are plenty of NC Democrats who could give us that.
Agree
Statewide Dems can do better than Shuler, whose Blue Dog bent is OK for WNC, but not so much for the rest of the state. I fear that Dalton would be virtually the same as Shuler, voting-wise.
[ Parent ]
I don't know about this list
If I had to pick my top 4, I would definitely have included Grier Martin.  I'm not sure why Grier is not on this list.

Heath Shuler is exactly where he needs to be...in the House representing a fairly conservative district.  Heath would probably be to the right of Ben Nelson.

Bob Etheridge is a fine person...and he's electable.  But he's getting a bit old to consider a run for the Senate.  If he was 10 years younger, I would be supporting him.

Walter Dalton was just elected as Lt. Governor in 2008.  I know the NC electorate, and I just don't believe that NC would support Walter making a jump into this race.  North Carolina didn't like it that John Edwards was running for President in 2004 because he didn't represent NC while he was gone.  I think he's not a good choice.

Richard Moore is a fine candidate, and I like Richard a lot.  He's a smart man, and he did a great job as Treasurer.  But he was engaged in a nasty primary with Bev Perdue.  I think that he's got some fences to mend before he can run again.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Why isn't anyone mentioning...
Jim Neal as a possible candidate?  He seemed to have quite a bit of netroots support back in last year's primary.  Has he indicated he doesn't want to run?
Well...part of that is obvious...
It gives me no joy in saying it, but the CW is that an openly gay man, no matter how great a guy, can't win statewide in a state like NC at this point in time.  It pains me to say it, but I think it's going to be sometime before LGBT Americans like myself can mount statewide runs in the South.

That said, Neal didn't impress me last time around.  He raised a considerable amount of money, though less then Kay Hagan, but towards the end it seemed as if he was just sitting on it.  Kay Hagan definately ran the better campaign in the primary.  Neal is probably better served seeking office in the state legislature, at least for now.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Jim Neal may be a possible candidate
But I don't know if he's an electable candidate in a statewide race in NC.  He's from Chapel Hill, and most of NC will just not vote for someone who lives in Chapel Hill.  Jesse Helms was once asked if he would support federal funding for a NC zoo, and he stated, in not so many words, that NC just needed to build a fence around Chapel Hill and just call it a zoo.  

Unfortunately, the majority of the NC electorate agrees with Jesse Helms.  I lived in Chapel Hill for 7 years, and I found Helms comments to be pretty ignorant.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Yeah...somehow I think Chapel Hill would be the least of Neal's problems....
[ Parent ]
You would be surprised
The moment you tell someone you are from Chapel Hill, many will turn you off immediately.  Chapel Hill has that bad of a reputation.  

I get your point...Jim Neal wouldn't be elected even if he lived outside of Chapel Hill.  The cultural conservatives would have a great time lamblasting Neal.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Why is That?
Is it because it is perceived as liberal?
[ Parent ]
Exactly
North Carolina, in general, is a culturally conservative state.  The UNC campus, over the years, has received a lot of press coverage regarding protests on other demonstrations.  I graduated from UNC in 1993, and during my 4 years there I determined that the protesters gave the whole city itself a bad rap.  It's okay if you protest, but unfortunately the protesters, on occassion, decided to go too far (For example, a burning of the U.S. flag).  The minority of the protesters become too vocal, unwilling to compromise on their standing on any given issue.  That is their right, but the entire state of North Carolina views it differently.  They see a U.S. flag burning, and a student holding it, and they make more grandiose connections.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Not as electable
Putting aside the being gay issue, who does the DSCC usually try to recruit: a businessman or a congressman?  a businessman or a statewide lower office holder?
[ Parent ]
Usually an established politician first.
At least to my knowledge.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Positive name recognition
Unless the businessman can finance the entire campaign, I would hope that positive name recognition would what the DSCC would look for, be it businessman or state-level politician.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Personally
I like him and don't buy into the "he can't win because he's gay" stuff. But his 2008 campaign wasn't particularly impressive to me. He didn't seem to generate much support beyond his pocketbook and a small base on national blogs and in North Carolina. I think his 18 percent is about the limit for him in a Senate race. It's just aiming a little to high.  State Treasurer, Auditor, legislature, city council somewhere or something more on that scale would be a better idea for him, IMO.

He has said he will consider it but he briefly ran for State Chair and then dropped out beacuse he couldn't do it full time earlier this year so a Senate race doesn't seem likely or wise.  

[ Parent ]
Ouch
Those four potential candidates are quite the step down from Cooper. I'm really disappointed he passed the race up, and I'm wondering what exactly his next move is.
Remember
he did this last time with Dole and we got Kay Hagan.  No guarantee this will work out the same way, but still no reason to be worried yet either.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
another name
Cal Cunningham is being mentioned a bit on this thread at BlueNC blog.
Cunningham mulls Senate run
His bio looks interesting. Former NC state senator. Served in Iraq as a JAG prosecuting contractor misconduct,
& won some medals there.   Cal Cunningham wiki  
yeah
I agree - on paper he looks really interesting. I'm also wondering about Charles Meeker. No nothing about him, but being mayor of Raleigh would seem something of a base to run off of.  
[ Parent ]
Mayors
Last year the long-term Republican Mayor of Charlotte, Pat McCrory, lost to Bev Perdue for Governor.  Jesse Helms twice defeated another Charlotte Mayor, Harvey Gantt, for the Senate.  All of these races were reasonably close but Mayors (at least of Charlotte) seem to have a hard time state wide.
[ Parent ]
If Grier
Marshall and the other good candidates (Doesn't include Dalton, Moore or the two reps) don't run he would be a fine candidate. He just doesn't seem to have as strong a record as Martin.
[ Parent ]
Thanks for picking up on the post at BlueNC, homerun
Really happy to see some folks here checking in with the state blogs.    
[ Parent ]
No Grier Martin?
He's the only one that excites me out of the full Cooper-less slate. Richard Moore is the best of this lot, I suppose.

No on Shuler. Not just because he's somewhere to the right of Arlen Specter, but personally, he just doesn't cut it. The man is an idiot. We can do better.

Etheridge is the best
Shuler is okay, but "do better than him" is a valid argument.

The point so far, and in 2008, is that on-paper fine NC candidates either have no spine or just don't want to be a Senator.  The people who mention they are interested are ones jumping a pay grade.

I had always assumed Schuler declined to run in deference to Cooper.
It would make sense to give both him and Moore another push after he decided not to run.  
My NC-Sen recruiting list would be
Richard Moore - if he can mend fences with Bev Perdue
Elaine Marshall - Sec of State, elected statewide 4 times
Melanie Goodwin - State Rep, wife of Insur Comm Wayne Goodwin
Grier Martin - State Rep

We don't need to send another blue dog to the US Senate, ready to jump ship on the Democratic agenda at any time. We need someone who can draw a clear contrast to Burr. Burr-lite just won't do.


Grier Martin Not Running
Under The Dome, The Raleigh News and Observer's political blog, reports that Martin won't run against Burr for Senate in 2010.  
Daniel Johnson might be another good candidate
He challened Patrick McHenry in NC-10 in 2008 and would be a solid candidate for statewide office.

Of course, President Obama may make him US Attorney for Western NC first. And Hampton Dellinger (ran for Lt Gov in 2008) may get the central NC post.

http://projects.newsobserver.c...

NC-Sen: DSCC Looking at Four Potential Recruits | 48 comments

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