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OH-Sen: Taylor's Out, Brunner's Still In

by: Crisitunity

Fri May 15, 2009 at 4:03 PM EDT


Several developments from the Buckeye State today, as the fields solidify for the Senate race there. On the GOP side, Rob Portman has a pretty well unimpeded shot at the nomination now (facing only Cleveland-area auto dealer Tom Ganley). Auditor Mary Taylor, whose name had been bandied about as a more charismatic and less Bush-tinged alternative to the technocratic Portman, stated today that she's not running against Portman (and his establishment backing and his $3 million CoH).
The Ohio Republican Party's central committee unanimously endorsed Taylor today after she informed members in a conference call Wednesday night that she would run for re-election.

Taylor, who had not planned to publicly announce her decision until next week, has flirted with a bid for the Senate seat being vacated at the end of next year by the retiring GOP incumbent, Sen. George V. Voinovich.

Taylor's decision to run again for Auditor won't spare her a difficult race. In most states, Auditor is a sleepy backwater position, but she's the only statewide GOP officeholder left, and Auditor takes on special importance in Ohio as it (along with SoS) is one of the five spots on the Apportionment Board that draws state legislative districts. With SoS Jennifer Brunner vacating her post, the SoS and Auditor races both take on huge importance if Dems are to dismantle the pro-GOP gerrymander in the state legislature. Luckily, a prominent Dem, Hamilton County Commissioner David Pepper, got into the Auditor race this week (although he faces longer odds against Taylor than with an open seat).

Speaking of Brunner, she felt compelled to fire off a letter today to Ohio activists stating that she's in the Senate race to the bitter end.

"I want to make it clear that under no circumstances will I consider seeking re-election to the secretary of state's position, or any other statewide or federal office, other than the open U.S. Senate seat of retiring (Republican) Sen. George Voinovich," Brunner wrote.

Brunner has been lagging Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher in fundraising by a substantial margin, even though polls show them performing about equally well against Portman. There's been behind-the-scenes pressure on Brunner to get out and avoid the divisive primary (and some idle speculation that she might move over to the Lt. Gov. spot being vacated by Fisher, now that Rep. Tim Ryan declined it), but for now she seems determined to stay in the Senate race.
Crisitunity :: OH-Sen: Taylor's Out, Brunner's Still In
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OH-Sen: Taylor's Out, Brunner's Still In | 39 comments
Fisher's fundraising isn't as good as it's been made out to be.
Buckeye State Blog has done a great job digging through the details:

http://www.buckeyestateblog.co...

http://www.buckeyestateblog.co...

To sum it up, Most of Fisher's donors are maxed out, the money he has earmarked for the primary is actually about 635,000, a huge chunk of that came from his family members and lobbyists.  He's also fired his fund raising director, which might well mean that his fundraising numbers for this cycle aren't looking too good, and is apparently replacing him with someone who "has a reputation for charging lobbyists to get their clients to bundle contributions to have access to his candidate."

Thanks to Buckeyestate (and to Ohio Daily Blog, even though I didn't link to their articles for this one) for digging around on this one.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

Maybe
But doesn't change the fact Brunner's haul was terrible. I'm not saying she should drop out now but she must ramp up her fundraising and quickly or the calls for her to quit will become impossible to ignore.
[ Parent ]
Dreadful
So Fisher will have just enough scratch to win the primary and be completely broke against Portman. In a race we have no excuse not to win.

What's the story with SoS? Any top tier Democrats stepped up  yet?

It would be so typically Democratic to have absolutely romped the GOP mid-decade and still find a way to wind up short on the Apportionment board when the stakes are highest.

Hey, we can always spend another decade waiting for demographics to eek us into a perpetually vulnerable razor-thin majority in one chamber!

 

[ Parent ]
Any nominee will be able to raise the necessary funds for the general

[ Parent ]
Ya
My guess is that even if the primary is brutal the primary victor will never trail Portman.  He's just that bad of a candidate.  
[ Parent ]
Yes, there is a candidate for SoS.
Marilyn Brown.  http://www.co.franklin.oh.us/C...

Money isn't going to decide the senate race.  In fact, it's never the sole factor in any race.  Messaging and organization are more important-that and having a good candidate.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Eh
Getting crushed in the air wars severely limits the messaging. I don't doubt the DSCC will dump 5, 6, 8 million in Ohio if for whatever reason Fisher struggles with fundraising, but he'll need the ability to define himself early and often.
[ Parent ]
That's too bad
I was really excited for Brunner, but if she can't keep up with Fisher it's probably going to be him.
[ Parent ]
Honestly, I expect Brunner to win the primary.
Fisher got a lot of his money from his family and from lobbyists and he managed to max a bunch of them out.  That said, when a candidate raises that much money, has been around for decades ensuring name recognition, and is tied to a popular governor with the backing of the state party machinery and STILL can't break 20 percent in the polls, it's a sign of weakness.  What's more, the word from Ohio is that Fisher is focusing on big donors and lobbyists over grassroots organizing.

Brunner on the other hand gets an average of 300 dollars per donation, which means she can still go back to the same folks.  She's also expected to get the Emily's List endorsement soon which will enable her to compete in the primary.  She's also exciting a lot of people and really demonstrating a good work ethic on the campaign trail.  In the end, she'll beat Fisher, mark my words.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Skeptical
Without enough money to get your message out it doesn't matter how good a candidate you might be. See Rick Noriega.
[ Parent ]
Primaries are smaller events than general elections
Money isn't as important in low-turnout primaries, having committed supporters helps a lot more.  Kweisi Mfume made a pretty strong run at the Maryland Senate seat back in 2006 despite having like 5-10% the money of eventual winner Ben Cardin.
[ Parent ]
Perhaps
I suspect Jim Webb would also fit in that category. However, he had the endorsements in Virginia while Mfume had demographics in Maryland to help him. In Ohio Fisher likely has both. But we shall see.
[ Parent ]
Have you ever read the book "Freakanomics"?
There's a great little chapter in there where they crunch the numbers and make that point that the amount of money a candidate has is, statistically and historically, not much of a factor in who wins a campaign.  Now don't get me wrong, money is important, and I'm hoping Brunner's fundraising is much more competitive this cycle, but there have been too many races, primary and general, where we were outspent, sometimes two to one, and still came out on top for me to worry too much about Fisher's money, least of all when he's showing such signs of weakness.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
I agree it is eminently possible
But there is a difference between being outraised and raising next to nothing/not enough to compete statewide. We usually reflexively discard anybody that can't raise at least $100k for a House race. Brunner raised just $200k. She needs to step it up.
[ Parent ]
Don't disagree on that point.
I think with the Emily's List endorsement she'll be fine in the primary, and I'm not convinced that the first quarter was a sign that she can't raise money, especially as she didn't max many of her donors out like Fisher did.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
It's overly simplistic
Money is generally the deciding factor.  It's no coincidence it's called the mother's milk of politics.

In other words, we never hear about many, many, many potetntial candidates because they simply either decided not to run or were never factors because they could not raise the cash.

Brunner and Fisher are known quantities to some degree, so that is a different factor, but where two primary candidates do equally well against the other party, the candidate with more money will have a huge edge in the primary.  People who don't particularly care about the difference between the two will line up with the one with significantly more money (if one in fact does have significantly more money).

[ Parent ]
Portman
May have all the money in the world and i still could see him losing by 10%.
[ Parent ]
Ditto with
Roy Blunt.
[ Parent ]
It's kinda funny
Who could have imagined after the 2002 and 2004 disaster that Missouri and Ohio would go from having 4 republican Senators to 4 (mostly progressive) democrats?  My how times change.
[ Parent ]
what about
factoring how much money is raised now for political campaigns noawadays compared to back then.  Was that adjusted for and such because I'd assume there is a difference.
[ Parent ]
Does not compute
Open Secrets runs tallies for each campaign cycle that show that consistently about 90% of winning candidates on the federal level spend more money than their opponents.  Of course, that does not take independent expenditures into account.  However, I've done that.

I went over every campaign  for the House in the entire country for the year 2006 including both independent expenditures and candidate spending.  You know how many candidates were outspent 2-1 or more and still managed to win?  One.  That's right, Carol Shea-Porter. It is hard to win in a general election if you are outspent but nearly impossible if you are not in a competitive zone of at least 60%.

Primaries seem to operate differently.  The universe of voters is more limited and ideology , personality, or single issues can be more important than TV ads.

That said, any Democrat whould spend at least 60% of Portman's totals and thus should be in the game for the general election.

Yes, historically I can cite miracles like Harry Truman's primary campaignin 1940 where he spent $10,000 against two magabucks campaigns and still won.  Truman was the incumbent Senator and had the support of the Kansas City machine.  And it was 1940.  I can talk about Michael Huffington blowing scads of family money in a vain attempt to win statewide office in California.  Those stories are memorable, after all, because they are rare.  Heck, William Jennings Bryan was outspent by McKinley 16-1 in 1896 but was somewhat competitive.  The very fact that I am using a 19th century number tells you how rare these things are.  

[ Parent ]
I'd say money mattered much less 70+ years ago
Than it does today.  Back then winning races had more to do with force of personality on the stump.  People like William Jennings Bryan, Huey Long, etc. all got elected for those reasons rather than money.
[ Parent ]
Except that...
Those races in which the plucky underdog who was being outspent by large amounts yet still managed to win also tend to be exceptions, and tend to happen in states that are relatively inexpensive, states like Ohio, where having a lot of money is necessary just to have a shot.

Brunner may not need to outraise Fisher, but she really does need to do a lot better in fundraising to have a chance.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Other than money
Does Emily's List really help in a OH Dem primary? If anything it may hurt her with pro-life voters in places like NE OH, Toledo and SW OH. I think itd only be a big deal in Columbus and some of the wealthy Cleveland suburbs.
[ Parent ]
Wait until the second quarter is over
if Brunner's fundraising still sucks, she should drop out. If not, she should stay in.
[ Parent ]
This is interesting.
Buckeye State is challenging the Brunner and Fisher people to put their money where their mouths are.  First candidate to 5,000 or the one with the most by Monday wins.

http://www.buckeyestateblog.co...

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

OH
Why doesn't she back out and run for Lt. Gov?

29/D/Male/NY-01
She'd have to run on a ticket with Strickland.
But aside from that, she wants to be a U.S. Senator.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Have you guys thought of the REAL reason to back someone...
Because they are the BETTER candidate!!
OH
i just hope we are not fumbling away all the gains we made in ohio the last 2 elections. we should be looking at a solid blue ohio after 2010.
This is a weird race...
I'm all for contested primaries, but I think we'd have been better off if Brunner and Fisher had worked out between themselves who was going to run for this seat. We don't need to waste resources on a divisive primary when the GOP nominee will be exceptionally well-funded.

Whoever decided to take a pass wouldn't exactly have a bad consolation prize waiting for them, considering Gov. Strickland will be term-limited out of office in 2014 (assuming he wins reelection, which looks likely).

Fisher?
The man has already lost two bids for statewide election.  He looks like an OK candidate but certainly nothing special.  Other comments talk about "demographics."  Again, the connection is not obvious.  He's a middle aged white guy.  What demographics? Connecting the dots for non-locals would seem to be a good idea here.  Is Fisher, as Lt Gov merely riding on the coat tails of the Gov?
[ Parent ]
Demographics?
Think Clinton primary voters.
[ Parent ]
Fisher's losses
They were both very close races and at a time when Dems were mostly out of favor nationally.  In 1998 he lost to Taft by like 5 points.  Most Dems just didn't have the guts to run that year.  Fisher did.  

WAY too much is made of Fisher's who defeats.  As it so happens Bill Clinton lost two races before becoming President.  Just saying...

[ Parent ]
And way too little is made of the fact
that Brunner has NEVER lost a race.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Or the fact
That she's run and won exactly ONE race.
[ Parent ]
No, she's won more than run.
She was elected twice as an appeals court justice.  Admittedly, that's nothing compared to Fisher's many, many, many runs and his two losses.  But pray tell, why can't this man who's been around forever, has nearly universal recognition in Ohio, a huge cash advantage, and is tied to a very popular governor not break 20% in the polls???

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
nothing to worry about
Brown will win SoS and Peppers will run a good enough of a campaign against Taylor (R-Barbieland) to tie up a lot of the Ohio GOP's dwindling resources.

From jump, it was clear that Fisher would out-raise Brunner. Fisher draws his cash from old money that is more predictable than his opponent. Brunner draws her fund raising from the rank and file and right now two things are working against her: We're broke. The economy is completely and totally in the dumper. The grass roots just don't have the dough to contribute.

Secondly is sort of a "hangover" if you will from 2008. People are burned out on "horse race" politics. People went "all in" for Obama. And now, they just don't see a big difference between Fisher and Brunner.

It will be difficult for Judge Brunner to overcome the institutional advantages that Ted and the ODP will deliver to Fisher in the primary. Ironically, I would guess that she's the stronger candidate in the general election.

Brunner
making that statement only makes me want to support her more.  I dont know enough about the candidates and I dont really care to research them but I cant help but say, Brunner sure does the have the attitude I'd like to see in a Senator.  She's going to do what she wants to do and is ignoring "whose turn it is".  We'd probably have a whole slew of different Congressmembers if more politics were more like that.
OH-Sen: Taylor's Out, Brunner's Still In | 39 comments

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