This is what happens when you put your eggs in one basket.

If we're going to win in places like Kansas and other redstates continually we're going to have to avoid relying on cults of personality.  Don't get me wrong, I love Sebelius (I was hoping she'd be VP in all honesty), but we have to build our party around values and ideas, not individuals, however stellar they may be.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

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by: ARDem @ Fri May 15, 2009 at 20:54:45 PM UTC

In some ways

kind of similar to what the GOP faces in Hawaii.  Linda Lingle was the popular mayor of Maui and in 1998 decided to run against unpopular incumbent Governor Ben Cayetano.  She lost by just over a percent.  In 2002 Cayetano was term-limited out and his Lt. Gov. was called in at the last minute to run after the frontrunner (mayor of Honolulu) had to drop out for campaign irregularities.  Lingle won by almost 5%.  In 2006 Lingle faced some retired ex-legislator after all the top-tier candidates said no, and she won 63-35.

Now, without Lingle, Republicans are facing the prospect of having no up-and-comers.  During her time in office the once-sizable GOP presence in the legislature has been reduced to about 10% of the chamber.  They lost what friendly mayors they had.  Their Lt. Gov. will surely do his best in his run to replace Lingle, but he faces the longtime Congressman from the 1st district.

Simply put, Lingle's tenure has not brought a Republican resurgence in Hawaii, the only politician she's dragged to prominence is her less popular Lt. Gov. who runs on a ticket and has never been elected himself.  After the scares of the 1980s and 1990s, Democrats are as powerful as they have ever been in Hawaii.

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by: skaje @ Fri May 15, 2009 at 21:55:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Or Wyoming

If that term-limits law is overturned Freudenthal probably runs for a 3rd term and wins easily.  If it doesn't it's a near certain loss.  He's our entire Wyoming bench.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri May 15, 2009 at 22:02:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Reminds me of Huckabee

And the AR GOP in Arkansas.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri May 15, 2009 at 22:34:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And Ahhhnold (at least when he was popular)

and the California GOP.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Fri May 15, 2009 at 22:35:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I remember some Republicans

saying with straight faces that McCain might win California because of Arnold's success there.

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by: skaje @ Fri May 15, 2009 at 23:04:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And some Democrats

Well, at least PUMA "Democrats".

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by: conspiracy @ Fri May 15, 2009 at 23:07:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which, at least in California,

either did not turn out or warmed to Obama after Palin was chosen as veep. Not exactly an easy feat for PUMAs to be out in full force when Obama smashed McCain here. And in addition, there were plenty of Obama-Republican districts and counties, while McCain-Democratic districts and counties numbered...

...

get ready for this...

...

ZERO!!!

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Sat May 16, 2009 at 03:16:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The PUMAs

were just a very tiny group of crazies that were very, very, LOUD and were amplified by elements in the media looking for a horse race/dog fight instead of doing real journalism.  They were never anything to be concerned about.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

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by: ARDem @ Sat May 16, 2009 at 07:07:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It was more the people at Mydd

Who I had many arguments with about how McCain was such a good fit for the state and Obama was weak. It was nonsense.

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by: conspiracy @ Sat May 16, 2009 at 14:45:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, remember the recommended diary comparing Obama to George Wallace?

And folks around here think Openlefties like me are nuts.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

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by: ARDem @ Sat May 16, 2009 at 17:58:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mydd was a horrific spectacle

from about March to June of 2008.  Looking back, it gets a chuckle out of me.  heh, reminiscing about mydd...

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by: skaje @ Mon May 18, 2009 at 19:49:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

haha yeah

their only recruit so far to supposedly "vulnerable" Senator Lincoln is some guy who called Chuck Schumer "That Jew".

They have almost no one who can win statewide anymore, and this is in a state McCain by 20 points.

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by: skaje @ Fri May 15, 2009 at 23:06:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Blanche always gets the colorful ones.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

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by: ARDem @ Fri May 15, 2009 at 23:35:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hardly her fault

If people don't want to run.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri May 15, 2009 at 21:44:12 PM UTC

I don't think

That's what he was saying. Rather, he's remarking on how the KS Democratic party, after 8 years of an extremely popular Dem governor, is essentially in the same spot it was when she took office. Sebelius certainly gets some blame for this, but so does the Chairman of the KS Dems and many others.

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by: safi @ Sat May 16, 2009 at 03:11:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is her fault

I love Sebelius as well, but she didn't make the inroads necessary for the party.  Think of Clinton in the 90's; he won states like Tennessee and Kentucky, but never got the voters there to vote for Democrats, just for him.  Mark Warner in Virginia on the other hand, did a phenomenal job for the Democrats in VA; he built up the party infrastructure in NoVa, had a clear heir in Tim Kaine to ensure continuity, and never campaigned on just himself but always championed how Democrats created economic progress in Virginia.  As such, voters became comfortable with the idea of voting Dem, not just with Warner.

Sebelius, on the other hand, never did those things.  She always picked apolitical ex-Republicans as her Lt. Governors that were too muted and low-profile to push the Democratic message, much less carry the mantle after she was gone.  And she did NOTHING for Boyda the last two cycles.  This also falls on the shoulders of the state party itself, but Sebelius should have had articulate, outspoken sidekicks to push the Kansas Democrat message, and she should have had someone who wanted to take the mantle for the next generation.  Instead, she was too concerned with her national profile.  

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by: DFLer @ Mon May 18, 2009 at 14:54:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very harsh

Particularly since Boyda probably only won in 2006 on her coattails.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon May 18, 2009 at 19:12:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But true

Boyda only won because Jim Ryun is an ass and 2006 was a good year for Democrats.  But Sebelius never realy lent her public support to Boyda, probably out of the fear that if she worked hard for a fellow candidate that lost, it would hurt her image as a "winner in a red state."  And that's my problem - she would give the Democratic response to the State of the Union, but never pushed the Democratic message at home.  She'd travel to Washington to support national Dems, but wouldn't travel to Salinas or Topeka to give local Dems a fighting chance.  She offered herself as a VP, but didn't pick a Lt. Governor that could carry her momentum.  It was always about her, and now that she's gone the state party will be lucky to not get cleaned out in 2010.  Again, it's not solely her fault (Paul Morrison comes to mind) but when you're the Governor you do bear a lot of the responsibility.  This just needs to be a lesson for all state parties/governors, what we need to build a party not around a candidate but a message.

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by: DFLer @ Mon May 18, 2009 at 19:39:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DCCC money

Nobody else in the entire country benefitted as much from DCCC independent expenditures in the 2006 cycle as Nancy Boyda.  She got $700,000 nearly the size of her own entire campaign fundining and was matched dead even with Ryun (counting all money).  The next cycle Boyda went holier than thou and turned down the DCCC money.  Sebellius was only part of the story.

A few got more money but not as big a percentage.  One of those, for sure, was Leonard Boswell who got $800 K.

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by: David Kowalski @ Tue May 19, 2009 at 08:43:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Moderate Kansas Republicans

Definitely dont seem like the NE or west coast types who will be much more willing to vote Democrat. As it seems fiscal issues trump everything else and as long as a Republican is solidly fiscally conservative theyll support them in the GE. The primary is a different beast altogether.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Fri May 15, 2009 at 22:35:35 PM UTC