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Oh, NRCC, You Wish You Were Like Rahm

by: DavidNYC

Thu May 14, 2009 at 2:04 PM EDT


Oh, this amused the hell out of me:

Republicans are getting inspiration on how to rebuild their party in the U.S. Congress from an unlikely source: White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel.

California Representative Kevin McCarthy, the chief recruiter for House Republicans, said he wants his party to select candidates based less on ideology and more on their chances of winning. The goal, he said, is to seek out prospects who are ethnically diverse, female, less partisan and even supportive of abortion rights. So far, these efforts are more concept than reality. (Emphasis added)

Ya think? The fact is, even if Kevin McCarthy truly meant it, and even if there weren't legions of movement conservatives standing in his way, there just aren't that many "moderate" Republicans out there worth recruiting. The GOP's vaunted discipline has produced a pipeline filled mostly with Aaron Schocks - it's pretty hard to be a Republican up-and-comer if you deviate from party orthodoxy. And what few moderates there are know that they'd be stuck in a deep minority and subject to endless arm-twisting. Why go to Congress when you'd have to start voting (much) more right-wing than you actually are?

I don't want to sound too triumphalist here - we will face a number of tough challenges next year. But it is the Democrats who have always had the far larger tent. It's our main weakness but also our key strength. It's why we have dudes representing districts like ID-01 and TX-17 and UT-02. So as I say above, the GOP simply is not set up on an institutional level to ape our approach. But anyhow, good luck trying!

(Hat-tip: reader WC)
DavidNYC :: Oh, NRCC, You Wish You Were Like Rahm
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Oh, NRCC, You Wish You Were Like Rahm | 58 comments
Their biggest recruiting coup so far
Is Crist for the Florida Senate race.  And the party leaders are getting skewered over it because Crist is a moderate.  Tells you all you need to know.
Yep, it sures does
On top of that i've read somewhere where RedState are telling it's members not to donate any money to the NRSC because of their endorsement of Crist. In their eyes anymore if you moderate on one issue or talk in a friendly tone, your a far left socialist. That how they look at things these days.
[ Parent ]
And even that may be a pyrrhic coup
In getting Crist to run for the Senate, all the NRSC ensured was that it had a better chance of holding (not gaining) a seat and that the GOP will have to spend a lot of dough to hold on to the governor's mansion and other statewide offices. It could very end up with Crist being the only successful statewide Republican in FL next year.
[ Parent ]
Could happen
At this juncture the only statewide races in Florida 2010 that I'd give republicans an edge in are the Senate race (Crist) and Ag. Commissioner (Putnam).  Governor/Lt Gov, Att. General and CFO we seem to have top-tier candidates in.

I'm wondering who Sink picks for Lt Gov.  A strategic pick would be nice.  Someone from the I-4 corridor would be great.  Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer is a possibility.

[ Parent ]
Crist might win that primary, but elsewhere only a true wingnut can win
Florida has some moderate republicans left in the party, but nearly everywhere else it's extreme conservatives only. I think the GOP is destined for Whig territory. There's the libertarian wing, the neocon wing, and the socially conservative wing all of whom contradict each other. Remember the last time the republicans got this discredited (1932) it took 20 years and the general who won WWII as their nominee to win a presidential election.
[ Parent ]
And that was going Democrat-lite
By 1952 republicans had embraced most of the social programs and high taxes that FDR and Truman has imposed. Eisenhower only grew the size of government even more, with the interstate highway system his crowning achievement.
[ Parent ]
Neo con & social conservative wing
While not all neo con Republicans are social conservatives, virtually all socially conservative Republicans are neo cons I would think. Especially in the Evangelical community.  
[ Parent ]
And wanted to be careful to say socially conservative *Republicans*
As it seems many blue collar, socially conservative Democrats are pretty pissed at the neo con foreign policy.
[ Parent ]
I think it's most amusing
that they think the concept of finding challengers based on their ability to win is a new idea.

God.  I hope we don't ever become like them.

NRCC
Maybe they can get a good number of females but everyone else McCarthy mentioned? I just dont think so. And those females will be of the Sarah Palin and Marsha Blackburn variety ideologically speaking.
Females
Amazingly. the number of Republican women in the House and Senate has slowly been dwindling and Democrats consistently get more women candidates and many more in viable races.  Republicans seem to nominate women (the ones they nominate) frequently to run against established Democratic women (Nancy Pelosi) or in throwaway races in places like NY City.

In the short term, I'd expect the number of Republican women in the House and Senate to slowly decline as a few of the older Republican women like Judy Biggert and Sue Myrick retire in the next few years and a few more lose in competitive districts.

Btw, many of the newer Republican women wind up as pretty extreme like Virginia Foxx, Michele Bachmann, and fSarah Palin.  What's up with that?  

[ Parent ]
Same thing with black candidates
They also don't seem to want to run either: 1) More moderate black candidates (Michael Steele somewhat of an exception), or 2) Conservative blacks in districts Republicans can actually win.

Since JC Watts retired in early 2003, not only have they not had a black Republican in Congress, they haven't really ran any candidates who had a shot at winning.

[ Parent ]
Haha
Their biggest joke for an AA candidate was in NC-13 a few years ago.  I think the guy's name was Robinson and he was a far-right crazy, going so far as to claim the Democratic Rep. Brad Miller had a relationship with Kos.
[ Parent ]
Vernon Robinson
Yeah, he was about as crazy as you can get.  Got a lot of wingnuts to donate money to him, though -- I guess that's their brand of diversity.

We've got one like him here in Indianapolis -- Marvin Scott -- who the Republicans trot out to run for an unwinnable race every couple of years.

[ Parent ]
on the "crazy" scale
he was right up there with Alan Keyes, maybe even exceeding him.
Apparently his attack ads against Miller contained virtually no actually true "facts".
[ Parent ]
Facts are
merely inconvenient truths. :P

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Dang! I sound like a scheming villain cloaked in darkness
or, alternatively, a Republican strategist.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Women
Also, it looks like they'll soon lose one-quarter of their female senators with the impending retirement of Hutchison (although I would not be surprised if my Rep, Kay Granger, made a bid for senator when that happens).  

As to why the newer women seem more extreme, I think it's just a symptom of a larger whole--MOST of the newer Republican reps are more extreme.  The more moderate members are able to keep getting elected, but only the more extreme ones can make it through an open seat primary.  This is really clear when looking at the Senate.

[ Parent ]
True
There will be three Republican women left in the Senate.  One was appointed by her dad, and there's the state of Maine.

This cycle will also almost certainly see the departure of Latinos from the GOP caucus (unless Rubio somehow manages to win both primary and general).

It'll be interesting to see who, exactly, Perry appoints (the appointee stays in office until the special, a few months later).  On the one hand, his path to victory is shoring up the base, which means picking a prominent conservative (most of whom happen to be white dudes, i.e. Abbott or Dewhurst).  On the other hand, a careful diversity pick could get him some decent national press.

[ Parent ]
Florida
Within a decade the GOP should be down to 0-1 Latino reps in Florida.  All three of their south Florida Cuban districts are repidly trending Dem.
[ Parent ]
Maybe Henry Bonilla?
It really depends whether he's focused on securing fanatical wingnut support for the primary or on making sure that seat is still holdable in 2020.
[ Parent ]
Diversity Picks
Michael Williams is a black Republican RR commissioner.  He is supposedly interested in higher office.  But, I really don't see Perry appointing him.  Not sure who the most prominent Hispanic Republicans in Texas are.  You would think there would be lots of potential candidates among them.  For women, my Congresswoman, Kay Granger, would probably be the most prominent and likely pick.
[ Parent ]
Latino Republicans in TX
Victor Carillo is a prominent one, as hes a RR commissioner. Theres Henry Bonilla, too, although he was defeated for re-election to the House. Theres also TX Supreme Court Justice David Medina. Ironically Sen. Cornyn was a TX Supreme Court Justice. I wonder if those two worked together and are personally close. And theres ex-U.S. Amb. to Mexico Tony Garza. Thats all i can think of.
[ Parent ]
Medina has problems
Medina was indicted for arson, I believe (or maybe it was just his wife).  I think the charges got thrown out, but that won't look good for a statewide run.  Bonilla seems like a has been.  Don't know about Carillo.
[ Parent ]
The problem is that no diversity pick...
... is likely to clear the field of larger players in the party.  Would Michael Williams beat Abbott or Dewhurst if they get in?  I'm not seeing it.  Bonilla was booted out of his seat in an upset (infamously being one of the few Hispanic members of Congress to oppose a path to citizenship).  Perry would be in serious danger of pulling a Steele if he goes that route.
[ Parent ]
I imagine he will pick whoever he thinks
Will help him to defeat Hutchison. His pure political posturing skills seem to be quite good.  
[ Parent ]
Yep
He's got too much a battle to win the governorship this year, so that he won't factor trying to please the national party.  Also, as noted above, I don't see any of the potential diversity picks with enough standing to clear the field.  Granger is the strongest of them, but she's allied with Hutchison so no way he'd pick her.  My guess is Dewhurst (LG) or Abbot (AG), whichever he thinks can bring the most support to him.  Probably Dewhurst.
[ Parent ]
McCarthy
I bet he means it. It just won't matter, for all the other reasons.
I'm positive McRarthy means it
Because he's a California republican congressman.  A species that will be near extinction come 2012.  Adapt to new realities or go the way of the NY republican... err, I mean dodo bird.
[ Parent ]
They may be endangered
But as long as McCarthy's district is anywhere near as Republican as it is today then he himself will probably be fine. It went for McCain by 22% and Bush by 37%. Sure, was a massive swing leftward but its still a pretty Republican district. And actually had a massive swing rightward from 2000 to 2004 in Pres. results. So hes probably thinking, 'sometime not too far away it might be a lonely existence in my Californian GOP caucus'.  
[ Parent ]
A very lonely existence
McCarthy, Nunes, Herger, Hunter, maybe Issa and/or Rohrabacher or Campbell.  Eventually that might be it.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Rohrabacher can be taken down with the right kind of Dem
Debbie Cook, as awesome as she is, was unfortunately far too liberal for an R+6 (I think R+3 in 2008?) district. If I had to venture a guess, I'd say that a law-and-order moderate Democrat could take Rohrabacher out.
[ Parent ]
In that case
I'd wait until 2012, when we can gerrymander Cali heavily, and elect several more liberal Democrats.
[ Parent ]
Hm
Maybe I'll try doing a "best case scenario" gerrymander of California to see how many more Democrats we could possibly squeeze out. Using 2008 numbers, my district (CA-46) is only R+3 now, and there are several districts that are now in the
R+1 to R+4 territory which is ripe for the pickings in 2010/2012, assuming the CDP can get its act together and actually support local candidates.
[ Parent ]
The Massachussetts Model
MA will elect Republicans to non-federal offices but not as US representative, US Senator or President.  NY, after all, still has 3 Republicans in the US House.  New England has none (althought 3 in the US Senate).

California, with 19 Republicans in the US House, outnumbers the 11 states of the Northeast who have 75 Democrats and just 17 Republicans in the House (California is 34-19.

Part of the problem is districting.  The save the incumbent plan cut Orange County into an incredible number of thin strips (like an orange, hah) and sliced off bits and pieces of Los Angeles County which were paired with highly rural area (Buck McKeon looks like he represents the sticks but 70% of the district's vote is in LA County).

Can we drop out five Republicans?  Why not.  But extinct?  Nah, just rare.

[ Parent ]
Right
Any redistricting plan to pack Republicans would have to start in Orange County by probably packing all 3.1 million of us into maybe 5 CDs entirely in orange county, probably taking in some of Riverside and San Bernardino counties to make up the balance. I'll start working on a redistricting plan this weekend and see how far I can push it :)
[ Parent ]
Isn't Orange County nearing minority-majority status?
Sure, there'll be a decade to wait before that starts to turn up in the voting, but that may not be as safe a place to pack them in the long term.
[ Parent ]
As of 2000
It was 65% white.  Of course that number is probably closer to 60% by now.
[ Parent ]
47% non-hispanic white
According to the Census Bureau Orange County California is now majority minority.  Wow.  B-1 Bob Dornan must be awful confused.  That is as of 2008 iirc.
[ Parent ]
Too bad their actualy voting power stinks

[ Parent ]
True enough.
Orange County is the only area of California that has a high density of Republicans, though, so it would be easier (and more compact for redistricting) to pack Republican votes here. The districts will eventually be competitive anyway, as OC is nearing majority-minority status. The county came within two points of voting for Obama so with the right Democrat, it's extremely competitive.
[ Parent ]
Keep the packing to the east
Coastal OC is changing.  We've got Laguna Niguel and the general vicinity, and we have the major Santa Ana-Anaheim corridor.  It's eastern Orange/most of Riverside/San Bernadino that's the core.  Might not want to draw the San Berdoo parts of Calvert's district in, though.  Hedrick won there.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Do we have any chance of running Kevin McCarthy scared?
as with Pete Sessions?

* goes to wikipedia *

...oooh.  R+16, compared to Sessions's R+8.  No, we don't.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

For a congressional delegation that big
The California republican delegation sure has a lot of obscure backbenchers.  
[ Parent ]
Its the same here in TX
Its easier to remember other heavily populated states' Republican members. Maybe thats odd since Im from Texas, but theyre just so obscure (besides a Jeb Hensarling and Ron Paul and Pete Sessions, for example). Kenny Merchant? Randy Neu...something...whos ever heard of them?  
[ Parent ]
*kenny mArchant
...which sums up your point nicely.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Poe comes to mind
He's on the politico TV shows a lot bashing immigration and was at the forefront in pushing to get the two Border Patrol agents who killed an immigrant pardoned.
[ Parent ]
Sam Hall
I think Hall is in his 80s and a former Democrat unless I'm mixing him up with someone else.  Lamar Smith.  Keeps beating John Courage.  The aforementioned Kay Granger and Randy Neugebauer.  McCaul.  Pete Olson who beat Nick Lampson last time out.  Louie Gohmert who I remember only because of the song Louie Louie.  Somebody named Burgess.  God knows the first name.  I think the district is in the 20s.

What makes it hard is that most of these people are nondescript and many are relatively new.

Did we mention lobbyist-in-waiting Joe Barton?  

[ Parent ]
My bad
I mixed up two of the critters, Sam Johnson and Ralph Hall into one "Sam Hall".  Proves the point, again.
[ Parent ]
There was a Texas Congressman named Sam Hall
he was a right-wing Dixiecrat who served from 1977-1985, and was appointed as a federal judge by Reagan.  He was, as hard as it is to believe, more conservative than Ralph Hall.
[ Parent ]
I think someone named Conway
It's probably just lack of tenure for a lot of these no-name TX republicans.  The Delaymander produced a lot of deadwood republicans with little to no resume.

Oh well, Texans asked for it.  If they want to keep elected a delegation made up 2/3rds of right-wing wackos they are going to continue being irrelevant in D.C.

[ Parent ]
Randy Neu?
Never heard of him.
[ Parent ]
Randy Neugebauer
Took out rural Blue Dog par excellence Charlie Stenholm.  District's in the panhandle but includes Lubbock and Amarillo.  I forget the district number. 19, maybe?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Yes
That was one of the Delaymander's easiest victories.  Neugebauer beat Stenholm in a 58-40 landslide in 2004.  They really screwed over Stenholm.  He got the worst district of all the Dems targeted in 2004.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ra...

[ Parent ]
Well, maybe not
Forgot about Max Sandlin.  He lost his seat in 2004 by a 61-38 margin to Louie Gohmert.  But he did end up hooking up with Stephanie Herseth so I have trouble feeling sorry for him.
[ Parent ]
Oops
Abilene not Amarillo.  That's farther north in Thornberry's district.  I think that and the rural counties between it and Lubbock were Stenholm territory.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Its hard to believe
A Democrat even use to represent any of that. Thats some hardcore Republican territory. Probably less socially conservative than rural east TX, for example, but still extremely GOP.
[ Parent ]
What Sessions said
Was just so extreme and politically stupid its not even funny. And wheres the GOP outrage? Unless I just missed it. Can you imagine if a Democratic House leader said the exact same thing about Pres. Bush? Theyd be all over it. Calling him/her 'unpatriotic'. And Sessions should realizes he represents a district that could be competitive very soon. Afterall, Obama only lost by 7 there. Its not like he represents a rural western TX district.  
[ Parent ]
Oh, NRCC, You Wish You Were Like Rahm | 58 comments

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