Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 5/12

by: Crisitunity

Tue May 12, 2009 at 1:37 PM EDT


  • MO-Sen: Law professor Tom Schweich has publicly floated running for the Missouri GOP Senate nomination. Schweich used to be John Danforth's chief of staff and was Ambassador for counternarcotics in Afghanistan in the Bush administration. Interestingly, the main motivation for his run that he's putting out there is the fear (nay, likelihood) that Roy Blunt would lose the general election and that he (as sort of a Danforth proxy) offers a more appealing figure.

  • VA-Gov: Former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, who's been demonstrating a lot of momentum in the polls lately, got another big boost: he picked up the endorsement of the SEIU today.

  • NM-Gov: New Mexico's only current statewide Republican elected official, Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, was a rumored gubernatorial candidate, especially since he's term-limited out of his current job. In an indication of how popular the GOP brand is in New Mexico right now, Lyons decided to pass on the open seat race, instead running for an open position on New Mexico's Public Regulation Commission.

  • FL-Gov: I hadn't even considered, with Charlie Crist bolting from Tallahassee, that Jeb! Bush might seek a return engagement as governor. After a Draft Jeb website popped up, Bush politely declined, saying that he will instead "continue to play a constructive role in the future of the Republican Party."

  • OH-Auditor: David Pepper (D), a Hamilton Co. Commissioner (and former Cinci Councilor/Cinci mayoral candidate who lost by a hair in 2005) is going to run against Ohio Auditor Mary Taylor (R). This is a crucial office because it controls a seat on the Ohio Reapportionment Board (which draws state legislative seats) and the GOP will be making a serious run at the open Secretary of State position that Jennifer Brunner is vacating (which also determines a seat on the board). Taylor says that she will announce whether she'll run for re-election or in the GOP primary against Rob Portman for Senate later this week. (J)

  • NH-01: Manchester mayor Frank Guinta has been acting like a candidate for a long time, but finally had his official kickoff event yesterday. Guinta hit every note in the libertarian book, singing the praises of tea baggers, criticizing the stimulus package, and saying that EFCA is "blatantly against" New Hampshire's "live free or die" mentality.

  • IL-06: Lost in the IL-Sen shuffle is Rep. Peter Roskam, who had occasionally been mentioned as a candidate for that (or governor). Roskam says it's "increasingly less likely" that he'll run for higher office, and seek to stay put instead.

  • NRCC: The NRCC has launched a new wave of radio ads against theoretically vulnerable Dems in nine districts, still harping on the stimulus package, trying to tie them to John Murtha and his "airport for no one" (riffing on the "bridge to nowhere," I suppose). Targets were Vic Snyder (AR-02), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Travis Childers (MS-01), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), Harry Teague (NM-02), Mike Arcuri (NY-24), Larry Kissell (NC-08), Kurt Schrader (OR-05), and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL).

  • Mayors: Yet more mayoral elections in the news. Today, it's Omaha, where there's a faceoff between Democrat Jim Suttle and Republican Hal Daub (a former mayor and former Representative) to replaced retiring Dem mayor Mike Fahey. A recent poll had Daub up 42-39, but there may be a Democratic trend at work in Omaha (as seen in Obama's victory in NE-02).

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/12
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
NM only has one statewide elected official?
whaaa?  :)

Only one GOP statewide officer
I forget how many elected offices NM has, but here are the ones I know of:

Governor
Attorney General
Secretary of State
Treasurer
Public Lands Commissioner (the only GOP-held office)


[ Parent ]
I'm fairly certain
That NM has a State Mine Inspector position that is elected statewide.  Not joking.

[ Parent ]
Jeb passing
That's very good news.  He'd be very hard to beat.  Thankfully he seems happy making boatloads of cash in the private sector.

you think he'll run for Pres
in 2016?  Does he really think this country will ever forget the last name Bush?  If so, he's an idiot.

[ Parent ]
That's a long way off
But even in 2016 I'm not seeing how it's possible, barring a disaserous 2nd term for Obama.  He's still popular in Florida but I'm not sure how he'll ever become viable nationally unless he changes his last name.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't write anybody off
People have very short memories. Can you imagine Dubya in 1993 with his last name? Or Hillary getting as close as she did at the height of the Lewinsky saga?

[ Parent ]
Or Nixon in 1968
8 years is a LONG time.

[ Parent ]
Indeedy
Particularly after he lost the CA gubernatorial race in 1962.

[ Parent ]
political advertisements in hot districts
Unfortunately, I don't live in a (politically) hot district, but...do people who do live in hot districts ever get tired of wave after wave of political ads?

I guess I'm just wondering, how much effect does the NRCC doing this really have?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


On those particular Reps
Very little.

[ Parent ]
It's horrible
MSP had Obama/McCain at least for awhile, Franken/Coleman (most money spent in 08, most of it on ads), Bachmann/Tinklenberg and then Paulsen/Madia.

I have DVR thank god but it gets really old really fast.  I dont know how on earth these ads are effective because everyone finds them annoying.


[ Parent ]
What are MSP and DVR?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
MSP = Minneapolis-St. Paul, DVR = Digital Video Recording (e.g., TiVo)


Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
you i know noticed 2006
aside from Indiana, was pretty much a bust for Democrats in the midwest. In 2008 though we picked up three Ohio seats, inculding two we'd come heartbreakingly clsoe to iwnning in 2006. Then we picked up two close races in Michigan, and won two new seats in Illinois and falling short in 2006.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Ya
2008 the big gains were in the southwest and once again the northeast.

[ Parent ]
i was talking about the midwest


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
We did win two seats in Iowa
and one each in MN, WI and OH.  So I would so we did alright over all.  True there were some missed opportunities that we were able to exploit last year, but there are always missed opportunities.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
Depends on how you define "midwest"
I've always regarded Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Ohio part of a "Greak Lakes region" since those states have little in common with the geographically defined conservative midwest states such as the Dakotas, NE, OK, etc.

[ Parent ]
Everyone else calls those
the Great Plain states, but you do what you need to do  ;)

[ Parent ]
It wasn't that bad for the Dems in the Midwest in '06.
Besides IN, they picked up one seat in OH, one in WI, two in IA, one in MN, and one in KS.

[ Parent ]
Two Questions
1.  Does anyone know why Roy Blunt did not run for/win reelection as House Minority Whip?  I was shocked to see Eric Cantor on Day 1 of the 111th Congress as Whip, and I never could find out a reason why Blunt dropped the job.

2.  What are the chances that Sink gets into the Gov race, and if she does not, who will we root for?


Looks likely Sink is going to get in for Gov
[ Parent ]
Ya, I was just about to post it
And she's already attacking the likely GOP nominee AG Bill McCollum.  She's almost certainly in.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/p...

WEST PALM BEACH - While mum on speculation she might run for governor, Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink took a shot at potential gubernatorial rival Bill McCollum Monday at a Forum Club lunch.

If Gov. Charlie Crist runs for the U.S. Senate, Democrat Sink and Republican Attorney General McCollum are expected to seek Crist's job.

In remarks to Monday's lunch crowd of about 450, Sink highlighted her role as the state's financial watchdog and said "it's my job to be critical of giving favored no-bid contracts, that government officials do occasionally, to their political consultants and cronies using state money. That's just wrong."

Later, Sink said she was referring to McCollum, who gave a no-bid contract to a former political consultant to produce and buy about $2.5 million worth of public service ads aimed at stopping Internet sex predators.

The ads, paid for with forfeiture money, feature McCollum prominently and have drawn Democratic accusations that he is promoting himself.

McCollum spokeswoman Sandi Copes said the ads promote an important issue, not McCollum, and that consultant Chris Mottola was chosen "because the attorney general knew and trusted his product."

Copes pointed to state records measuring one type of single-source purchase orders that show Sink's office has awarded about 30 such contracts while McCollum's office has awarded only five since 2007.

"If she is going to be so intensely critical, we think it's a good idea for her to turn some of that focus internally," Copes said.

Sink spokeswoman Kyra Jennings said the CFO's office has awarded far fewer sole-source contracts under Sink than under predecessor Tom Gallagher. Jennings said sole-source contracts are typically awarded for services that only one vendor can provide and are not comparable to Mottola's contract, which was awarded without bids because of an "artistic exemption."

It sounded like a gubernatorial campaign flap, but Sink on Monday declined an audience member's invitation to announce she's running for governor.

"I think all of Florida is anxious to hear what Gov. Crist says," Sink replied.




[ Parent ]
As for Blunt
a) he might not have been able to win, as he was too associated with the DeLay/Hastert axis (and with Jack Abramoff) and probably stuck with some of the blame with two straight shellackings in 2006 and 2008, and b) he was probably anticipating a Senate run instead and didn't want the split focus of being whip at the same time. Ironically, it's seeming like (a) is hurting his chances in the general election more and more as he pursues (b), which is why Steelman and now this other guy are popping up.

[ Parent ]
Jeb Bush
A good reason to vote against Jeb would be his policies, not his last name as some might instinctively do. I hope nobody, in either party, tries to use his particular relative against him. I think itd actually backfire. Alot of voters would be like, 'I have a less than desirable relative myself, so what are you saying about ME?'. Indeed, many have brothers and fathers and even sons in prison, or have been in prison, but it doesnt make them a bad guy just because their relative might be. Sorry if im making too big a deal out of this, im just someone who likes to judge someone on their own merits. And, with that said, while Im sure hes done some good for FL (particularly with dealing with hurricanes), Jeb Bush would be far from my first choice as Pres. (coming from an independent voter)

Family connections
His entire family is tied to big oil and other disgusting special interests.  It's far more than just his dumber younger brother.

[ Parent ]
Wrong brother
George is Jeb's dumber older brother. I'm not sure if Jeb has a younger brother. How old is Neal?

[ Parent ]
I kept counting
On how many Bush siblings there are. I know they like to live a private life, but im kind of surprised W. and Laura didnt have more kids. They strike me as being the 'big family' type.  

[ Parent ]
Oh, Please
George W. Bush isn't some ne'er-do-well brother with a drinking problem or cousin from the wrong side of the tracks. He's a former two-term President that proposed and implemented DISASTROUS policies- and Jeb Bush vociferously supported him every step of the way. They never had a significant policy disagreement, and Jeb carried George across the finish line in at least one race.

This isn't just a case of one brother being the bad seed, this is the case of one brother being the bad seed, and the other brother repeatedly enabling him and INSISTING to everyone that he's actually great.

Moreover, if he wants to cash in on the Bush name- as everyone since Prescott has, including him- he's got to take the bad with the good.

Ultimately, it IS a question of policy- as well as character and judgment.


[ Parent ]
I didnt mean to imply
That people should in no way, shape or form link Jeb with his brother George. If they agreed on policy and especially if Jeb enabled him then absolutely link the two. I just meant people shouldnt say, 'well theyre brothers, so theyll be completely the same'. They may be the same on so many fronts, but i think its more to do with ideological agreement than the fact theyre brothers. Afterall, George W. was quite different ideologically/philosophically from his own brother. And I know on abortion from his own mother and, if the rumors are true, his own wife.  

[ Parent ]
Errr
I meant to say...Afterall, George W. was quite different ideologically/philosophically from his own father

[ Parent ]
Are you kidding me?
Bush Sr. is a grade A scumbag just like his sons.  His first loyalty has always been to Saudi royalty and big oil, not to the United States.

[ Parent ]
He is indeed
His biggest mistake however, was not withdrawing that fateful night in October 1945 when he was making love with Barbara...

[ Parent ]
Barbara is another Bush people go too easy on
She may look like a sweet little old lady, but the reality is very different.

While visiting a Houston relief center for people displaced by Hurricane Katrina, Bush told the radio program Marketplace:

Almost everyone I've talked to says, 'We're gonna move to Houston.' What I'm hearing, which is sort of scary, is they all want to stay in Texas... Everybody is so overwhelmed by the hospitality, and so many of the people in the arenas here, you know, were underprivileged anyway, so this (she chuckles slightly) is working very well for them.



[ Parent ]
"'well theyre brothers, so theyll be completely the same'"
That is, of course, a good rule of thumb, we shouldn't ASSUME two brothers are going to be the same (have we had a single President in the last 30 years who didn't have SOME fuck-up in his immediate family?). But what I'm trying to convey is that here, it's no assumption, they really are quite similar, and Jeb spent at least six years playing up those similarities.

[ Parent ]
per Daily Kos:
Mitch McConnell is now on Plan D to force Jim Bunning into retirement: http://www.politicalbase.com/p...  

Bunning vs. McConnell boxing match--"Thrilla in the Bluegrass"
I would love to put Bunning and McConnell in a ring and let them duke it out.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I think the article missed a couple plans.
Didn't McConnell attempt to dry up Bunning's fundraising sources by putting out the word to potential KY contributors not to give to the Bunning campaign?
That plan was at least partially successful (based on the Q1 numbers), but not in the ultimate goal of getting Bunning to fold his tent.

[ Parent ]
Polling
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Vote Wisconsin! I would love to see the matchups in both the Senate and Gov races there, I haven't seen any yet. The rest are either been there done that, or not as relevant. Should be interesting to see if Feingold is vulnerable, and to see how close the Gov race is...


Do vote...
It's very close, your vote will make a difference, nad the courts won't overthrow it :)

[ Parent ]
Feingold ain't vulnerable
But I'd love to see where Doyle stands.  His approvals are horrendous and in the 30's.  But his possible opponents are far-right nutters.  Doubt he's in all that much trouble.

I'd rather see a NJ Gov general poll.


[ Parent ]
No!!!
I've seen like a dozen NJ Gov polls at least this year, and there will probably be like a hundred more in the next six months, it would just be another poll in the midst of the rest of them, where WI would be interesting cuz it'd be the first. I doubt Feingold is vulnerable, but it would be interesting to see the size of his lead against an R star like Ryan. We could see if it is a race to watch or if he is absolutely safe, he didn't win by all that much last time against a second tier opponent (obviously his added incumbency helps, and Ryan prob won't even run). I think the Gov. race will one of the top races. Voters seem to be in an anti-incumbent Governor mode, and Doyle will have already served two terms. I think Walker is a pretty strong challenger...

[ Parent ]
NO
Vote NJ Gen (because PPP is being annoying and not offering the Republican primary at the same time).

[ Parent ]
F that
we havent seen a single OK poll and there is actually a lot of action going on there.  Vote Oklahoma!

[ Parent ]
NJ is THIS YEAR
Nothing useful to be gotten out of OK so far out IMO.

[ Parent ]
But
We've seen so many NJ-Gen polls already... and there will be many, many more over the coming months.

[ Parent ]
Oklahoma
Is the most interesting, without Coburn.

Henry and Boren against the best the GOP has.

Wisconsin is a distant second.  Feingold will have a good lead, Doyle a small one... that is if you run the current and former 1st district reps against them.


[ Parent ]
current first rep
is gonna wait two years for an open seat clash between him and Ron Kind.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
or Baldwin
both are young and have been in the house about the same time.  She certainly hasnt been prepping herself for a run (moving to the middle at all) but she will be heavily pressured to run and will certainly be offered much much much more resources from national sources than Kind.

I dont care if it's a tougher race for us, I'm for Baldwin running, point blank period.  It'll hopefully be an Obama landslide which we all know in our hearts he has the potential to really rock this out.  He'd win Wisconsin by like 20% and carry Kind or Baldwin or over.

Both would be excellent choices and as a gay man, I'm definitely gonna root for Baldwin.  Plus Kind's wikipedia page says he is a HUGE free trade proponent, ::gag::

But watch, Kohl will serve one more term and this will be moot.  And I'm sure Baldwin and Kind will work out who gets to run for Senate against Ryan, I bet it will be Kind and not Baldwin though.


[ Parent ]
WY-Gov?
So what gives?  Are they going to overturn the term-limits law or what?

Final offficial results from NY 20.
Murphy 80,833 (50.09%), Tedisco 80,107 (49.91%).  Difference: 726 votes.  

Sounds like
It sounds like reasonably good turnout for a special election.

[ Parent ]
And a very nice result
considering that there is a 70,000 registration advantage for Repugs in the district.  And yet there are still a few right wing fools who say that this result is a repudiation of Obama and the Democrats because Gillibrand won by a much larger margin in November, 2008.

[ Parent ]


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
God, they can't even do spin right
Why not make the argument Gillibrand won by a larger margin in 2006 and against an incumbent? In 2008, she WAS the incumbent.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
NY-20 seems to always have high turnout
In the 2006 general, turnout was over 235,000 and in November 2008, turnout was over 310,000.

Gillibrand won the seat in 2006 with 125,168 to Sweeny's 110,554 and in 2008 with 193,61 to Treadwell's 118,031.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens


[ Parent ]
Well, now that it's in, where's that guy who laughed at us on election night?
He needs a little ridiculing.  Courtesy of Nelson.  Or even Bill or Ben Nelson, for that matter.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Omaha
Jim Suttle is ahead by a mere 132 votes with over 40,000 cast:

Hal Daub - Nonpartisan   49.6% 19,848
Jim Suttle - Nonpartisan   49.9% 19,980

Not sure how many precincts are in, the site says zero. The first round had about 46,000 voters.


Wow
Didn't know there was an election today.  Daub is a hardline conservative, right?  What about Suttle?

[ Parent ]
Daub now has 444 vote lead
Hal Daub - 30,766
Jim Suttle - 30,322
Write in - 323

Total Registered Voters - 241,803  
Total Votes Cast (Turnout) - 61,694  (25.51%)

From http://www.votedouglascounty.c...


[ Parent ]
Precincts reported
Still says 0 of 284. Hmmm.

[ Parent ]
Suttle wins
With all precincts show as in, Suttle leads by about 1,500 votes.

[ Parent ]
Suttle Wins
According to the Omama World-Herald
http://www.omaha.com/index.php...

At least one thing is going right
I had to turn off the Rockets-Lakers game.

It's the only time I root for the guys in Red :-)
Well, that and the Astros.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
And the Democratic-endorsed slate wins a majority on the city council
for the first time since the 80s. Go Omaha!

[ Parent ]
Omaha
Not familiar with their politics.  Is it generally a democratic or republican city?  I'm assuming the latter.

[ Parent ]
It's Republican
But generally not overwhelmingly so. South Omaha and downtown are Democratic strongholds, with the former a heavily minority area.  I would think it generally produces moderate Repubs, but, then again, Daub was no moderate.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
more confirmation that the Republican Party will continue to help us along
According to politics1 again, Huckabee is criticizing the "listening tour" being headed by Cantor, Palin (more craven than ideological, heh), Jindal, Romney, Haley Barbour (since when did he get into the mix), and Jeb Bush (...what?).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Huck
Huckabee talks a good game on economic populism but he really doesnt back it up in his platform other than a few things (including probably trade). I appreciate that he wants the GOP to be the party of working people rather than Wall Street but he needs to back it up in his platform.  

[ Parent ]
wait wha?
Palin is now in on the listening tour stuff?

[ Parent ]
The following quote is from Politics1
REPUBLICAN PARTY. Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee -- a 2008 GOP Presidential candidate -- is openly mocking the new group National Council for a New America for its attempt to "re-brand" the Republican Party. The Baptist pastor and FOX TV show host wrote in his Tuesday column that it was "hard to keep from laughing out loud when people living in the bubble of the Beltway suddenly wake up one day and think they ought to have a listening tour." The conservative NCNA group was formed by US House Minority Whip Eric Cantor (R-VA). In addition to Cantor, other leaders of the group include US Senator John McCain (R-AZ.), Governors Bobby Jindal (R-LA), Sarah Palin (R-AK) and Haley Barbour (R-MS), and former Governors Mitt Romney (R-MA) and Jeb Bush (R-FL). "For those on the listening tour, listen to this. If the party elite want to abandon principled leadership to protect life, support traditional marriage while going along with deficit exploding spending, interference and micro-managing of private business and failing to police corruption and govern competently, then hearing aids or a panel of experts won't help," Huckabee wrote. The NCNA group is trying to develop a consensus opposition agenda that entirely avoids discussing the hot-button abortion, gay marriage, and immigration issues. Huckabee, Palin, Jindal, Romney, Barbour and Bush are all potential 2012 GOP Presidential candidates.

From the "Wednesday News Update" for today (13 May 2009).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox