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FL-Sen/Gov: Crist Will Announce Plans on Tuesday, Appears Set to Run for Senate

by: James L.

Sun May 10, 2009 at 11:55 PM EDT


Buckle up:

Gov. Charlie Crist will announce his political plans on Tuesday and it very likely means he's running for U.S. Senate, Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer said tonight.

"Charlie Crist is going to be the next U.S. senator from Florida," Greer told the Buzz a few minutes ago. Crist has said he would make a decision after the legislative session but the precise day was first reported this evening by The Associated Press. [...]

Greer strongly indicated Crist will run for the seat being vacated by U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez. "It's my opinion he has come to the conclusion that he needs to fight for Floridians on the issues coming out of Washington, D.C., and he needs to be there first-hand," Greer said.

If Crist does indeed go for the Senate seat, as it seems likely, the ripple effect in Florida politics will be massive -- and one that could give Democrats a decent shot at picking up a pair of open statewide seats (Governor and AG). Also worth watching will be the response of former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, who has already declared his candidacy for the Senate seat as the true conservative option in the GOP primary. Will Rubio follow through with the scorched-earth campaign necessary to have a shot at poisoning the well for Crist? Or will he bail in order to run for one of the aforementioned open statewide offices, instead?

UPDATE: A "source close to the governor" tells the Politico that Crist has decided to run for Senate.
James L. :: FL-Sen/Gov: Crist Will Announce Plans on Tuesday, Appears Set to Run for Senate
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FL-Sen/Gov: Crist Will Announce Plans on Tuesday, Appears Set to Run for Senate | 90 comments
FL
Bad news.  I hope Sink quickly gets in for GOV.

Will Meek stay in?  Gelber obviously will.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Bad news???
This is great news.  We had no good candidate for Senate, and now we may be able to pick up the Gov, which would allow us to undue the second most crippling gerrymander against us.

On top of that, we get someone to meet with Snowe and Collins.

[ Parent ]
What's the most crippling?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Has to be
Texas.
[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania Senate, IMO
Does more harm on a policy level than the Texas gerrymander does, and has no chance of being struck down by the courts.

There is no reason PA Republicans should have 60% of State Senate seats.  

[ Parent ]
There are others
The Ohio State Senate is just as bad as Pennsylvania's.  Dems managed to break up the State House map in Ohio but Repubs still have a massive majority in the State Senate despite two huge years, 2006 and 2008.
[ Parent ]
New York Senate too
even though we managed to barely win the majority...there are some seats in Long Island and around Rochester that are gerrymandered purposely to deny Democrats another 5-6 seats at least.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Yes
I imagine when 2012 rolls around (assuming we still hold the trifecta) a new NY State Senate map can be drawn to guarantee another 5 or so safe Dem seats.  Then NY can get through more progressive legislation.
[ Parent ]
It is not just a gerrymander
it is also Repubs holding seats in suburban Philly which are heavily Democratic at the national level.  The Senate majority leader holds a seat in Delaware County which Obama won more than 60% of the vote.
[ Parent ]
We had a good shot at one St. Senate seat
Forget where it was located but we had a very good recruit.  He lost to the incumbent republican who died in a car wreck prior to the election AND lost again in a landslide in the special election.
[ Parent ]
Itd be great
To see PA state legislature-Pres. results. Even more fun would be states in the deep South. Such as Oklahoma, Louisiana and Alabama. I bet theres alot of Democratic elected officials there who represent far more pro-McCain & Bush 04 districts than, say, Chet Edwards. Probably even some that went for McCain and Bush 04 by 60%.  
[ Parent ]
Agree
Completely agree that this is great news for us.  FL Governor > FL Senator.  And, we go from practically 0% chance to win the governorship and maybe 30-40% to win senator to about 50% chance to win governorship and maybe 10-20% chance to win senator (go Rubio!).  Further, Crist as senator is much better than Rubio as senator.

My only quibble with the post above is that I'd rate the Florida gerrymander as the worst for us; worse than Texas IMHO, which I'm guessing is Tommy's pick for worst.

[ Parent ]
Florida's is far worse
At least in Texas one can argue that republicans having 2/3rds of the house seats isn't too terribly lopsided given how conservative the state currently is.  Texas probably has a far more politically accurate congressional delegation than New York has.  Ya, I know New York is overwhelmingly democratic, but not to the tune of a 26D/3R delegation.

Florida's 15R/10D delegation is wayyyy off.  With Sink as Governor we can probably get a map that keeps Klein, Kosmas and Grayson all safe in addition to adding a new tossup/lean D seat.  

[ Parent ]
well, NY's delegation
is indicative of how good Democrats have become at winning moderate to conservative leaning districts along with the complete failure of Republicans to hold any districts with even a mild liberal lean. They've been hemoraghing seats for five cycles in a row, beginning with Lazi's seat in 2000, then NY-01 in 2002, and Quinn's seat in 2004.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
NY is becuase the Reps no longer have a regional base, not gerrymandering
This is not because of gerrymandering, in fact NY's congressional map was a compromise, incumbent protection map (with each party losing a district).  By the nature of "first past the post" single member districts, any party that does not have regional bases is dead.  There is still a good number of Republican voters in New York, but they are no longer concentrated enough to win districts.  Since the former Republican strongholds of upstate, Long Island and (to a lesser degree) Staten Island are bluing virtually by the day, it makes it impossible for them to have anywhere near a proportional representation of there 35-40% of the vote.  
[ Parent ]
New York is gerrymandered in our favor
it's an incumbent protection map from 2002. New York really HAS become THAT Democratic. Take a long at Presidential results...Obama won 25 districts, lost 4, and 2 of those 4, he lost by one 2-3 points. (NY-13 and NY-29).

It's entirely possible IMO for Democrats to hold all 29 seats though I think NY-26 is a stretch.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Clinton
Didnt Clinton win all districts back in 96 or 92? Thats out of this world.  
[ Parent ]
In NYS
I mean.
[ Parent ]
Yeah in 1996
I'm pretty sure he did in 1996, at least a plurality in each of the districts, as they were then drawn.
[ Parent ]
Yeah he did
but if I remember correctly, a bunch of them were with pluralities, where he got 46%-47%. I actually don't know if he won NY-27, which is the current NY-26. That was Jack Kemp's home district.

Al Gore also won all by 4 districts in the state, which at that time was 31 districts. Al Gore went 27-4, but two of the districts he lost were NY-22 (the current NY-20) and NY-23 (the current NY-24).


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
NY-26
should be the seat eliminated in 2012.  NY-3 should be redrawn to be heavily Democratic as well.
[ Parent ]
John Cornyn must be giddy
This is the only top-tier recruit he's had so far in this cycle. I hope Rubio stays in just to torpedo Crist for the general electorate. Are there any more recent polls of the race?
Book still out on Cornyn
Good for Cornyn, but also good for us because it opens up FL governorship.  I thought Sink was being too cautious when she passed on the Senate race.  Seems like she knew what she was doing.

As to Cornyn's recruiting, the book is still out.  He recruited Simmons in CT, who is probably their best shot.  He's also wooing or has wooed Pataki, Kirk, Ridge (declined), Gerlach, Castle, and Grayson; all smart choices.  As much as I despise Cornyn, he is smart to be focused on winning rather than advancing an agenda as his top recruits are way to the left of the current GOP Senate caucus.

[ Parent ]
Kirk declined as well

[ Parent ]
Kirk hasn't publically declined
yet

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Saw "Outrage" yesterday, a new well-done documentary which
effectively outs several closeted conservative gay politicians.
Charlie Crist and Larry 'Wide-stance' Craig got the most minutes on screen I'd estimate, out of the several current and former politicians covered.

If Marco Rubio does do a scorched-earth campaign, and if he picks this as one of his topics, the campaign will be very tough for Crist (as long as he remains in the closet. But is there anyway Crist could win the Repub primary if he does come out?)

Outrage opened in LA , NY and I believe DC this weekend, and expands in the coming weeks (including FL).
http://www.outragethemovie.com/

If I may ask
Of sitting elected officials, who does the film "oust" besides Crist?

I'm seeing Larry Craig, Ed gillespie, Ed Koch, Mark Foley mentioned, I think i saw David Drier as well. But this doesn't really seem like it's really outsing anyone we didn't know of (who didn't know Craig and Foley were gay after their incidents?)

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
former RNC chairman and Bush/McCain campaign manager Ken Mehlman too
-- although he's not a sitting politician, he's still working in conservative circles.

I'm personally surprised the film didn't mention a certain sitting Senator from a Southern state who's not well-liked by the Republican base. You can't read an article about him without some wingnut calling him a RINO queen.

[ Parent ]
So . . .
The film doesn't even mention Lindsey Grahm or Patrick McHenry but will spend plenty of time on those who previously ousted themselves (Craig and Foley)? Disappointing for a film I thought was about ousting closeted gay Republicans.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Heh, well, I wasn't going to name names
but yeah, Lindsey Graham is who I had in mind. He has been mentioned a few times on BlogActive so I know he's on Mike Rogers's radar. Guess he just couldn't get anyone to dish on-camera - unless you wanna replay clips of South Carolina Republicans slipping up and calling him "light in the loafers", you got nothing to work with.

I actually have little against Crist politically. I'd rather see a more extremist hypocrite like faux-moderate Graham or just-plain-crazy McHenry get called out. But on the other hand, Crist had no reason to come out against anti-gay Proposition 2 this year except to give himself cover. If someone succeeds in outing him, it'll probably be a hit to the moderate Republican movement, but I won't be shedding any tears for him.

[ Parent ]
You don't happen to be Siobhan "Sam" Bennett, do you?
Just looking at your username, haha.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Haha, nope
just another Siobhan halfway across the country (in Minnesota) interested in Democratic politics. :P
[ Parent ]
Crist
and Craig got the most coverage by far. Probably because their previous gay partners agreed to come out and be interviewed on film for the documentary.

Don't recall Ed Gillespie in the film at all. Koch, Foley, Drier were all in the film. A couple others, too (Sorry my memory fails. It was pretty fast paced and info heavy, and LOTS of talking heads- maybe too many).

And I think the film argues that your assumption is incorrect that everyone knows all this.
Political junkies might. Gay press and web-sites do. A couple minor alternative papers do. But the mainstream media in general won't touch it with a 10 foot pole, and thus the average voter is clueless on these politician's hypocrisy.

Thus Crist's jeopardy if Rubio goes after Crist's hypocrisy in this area. The MSM may have no choice but to follow along.  

[ Parent ]
Meh.
Didn't look like we were going to get this seat anyways. Hopefully we can pick up the governorship at least.
We had a GREAT shot at the seat w/o Crist running......
The Senate seat w/o Crist was very much in play.  I know there was some grumbling about Meek not being an effective candidate and Gelber a lightweight, but Rubio and other mentioned names on the GOP side are no stronger on paper and certainly have no better name recognition.

But w/Crist in the game, I think this seat is off the table unless he loses or is severely damaged in the primary.  Related point, it means nothing that Crist is gay unless it hurts him in the primary.  What are we going to do with that?...we're the pro-gay party!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I think you have it backwards
Gelber has been the ineffective (read: had to endure legislative session and couldn't travel/fundraise much) one so far. He is the former prosecutor/US Senate staffer/FL state house minority leader. Meek is the lightweight.
[ Parent ]
Look like Alex Sink had the right idea.
Wait until Crist is out of the running for governor and then make the big announcement.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/a...

I personally think we always had a better chance at taking FL-Gov without Crist than FL-Sen without Crist. This also means that Obama has another Senate Republican he can work with on economic issues. I'm pretty pleased by these developments.

Yes!
Perfect.
[ Parent ]
great news. I seem to recall
LOTS of disappointed comments dissing Sink back when she declined to run against Crist for Gov.
Now of course, she's looking like a bleeping genius for holding out for Crist to exit the Gov. race.  
[ Parent ]
My question: Does he run for re-election as a Republican?
That'd be in 2016.

Presumably he wants to run for president in 2016, which if he can keep a handle on the gay angle, he can probably succeed at (getting the GOP nomination I mean).  I'd guess that the Republicans nominate a neanderthal in 2012, lose in a landslide, worse than the Clinton/Dole rout of 96, and then nominate someone sane in 2016 and give us another reasonably close election.  Crist could conceivably be that person, again, absent the gay thing.

That's one hell of a caveat when you're talking about the presidency though.  And if the presidency is off the table, and Crist is forced to run for reelection to the Senate, he's got a GOP primary in Florida to look forward to.  By 2016 the base may have mellowed out, but if his primary and general were in 2014 I'd say he'd be fucked.  It wouldn't be possible to please both a primary and a general electorate at that date, not with Crist's present political positioning.  

So, my question is, in 2016 does Crist try to run for re-election as a Republican, or not?  I'd say there's a non-trivial chance that he won't be able to win a GOP primary by then.  His main saving grace is that that will be seven years from now, which is a damn long time in politics.  The landscape will probably look very different by then, cold hard demographics notwithstanding.  

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

2016 President
Not sure how much this actually helps him set up for a 2016 run at the White House. Unless Senators have incredible charisma and pitch-perfect campaigns, they just don't seem to wear well on the electorate over the 18 month saga. And it would be a lot easier to remind Floridians of how awesome you are if you're in the state making decisions every day, rather than in Washington waiting for someone to call a vote. Plus, the guy is the governor of a huge swing state, elevated by the POTUS, he'd have no problem getting his voice heard on national issues, if that's what this is about.

So what I'm saying is, I'm not sure this WAS a move to get him in the White House. I don't see what makes the Senate a better job for him at all, frankly.  

[ Parent ]
Maybe he can switch parties a year or two into his Senate term
and then seek the nomination as a Democrat.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Agree
Running for President as governor of a big state has historically been much more successful than running as a senator.  Granted, he'll now be able to say he has national legislative and perhaps some sort of foreign policy experience depending on his committees.  But, I don't see him as a viable candidate to win the GOP nomination.  His embrace of Obama and the stimulus makes him anathema to much of the base.  Add in the gay issue and I think he'd be another Guiliani without the 9/11 issue; basically a no hoper in the GOP primary.

Sometimes the simple answer is the correct one.  I think he's just tired of the job of FL governor and would prefer to be a senator.  Also, governor is term limited, so he may be thinking long term and see an opening for a job-for-life that may never come around again.

[ Parent ]
He can see Cuba from his house.
St. Petersburg isn't as far from Cuba as Wasilla is from Russia, right?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Defeatism pervades the comments
I think we have a good chance to win this Senate seat. Crist is weaker than he may appear. He will probably be sorely challenged by Rubio. He may lose, as Specter almost did to Toomey, and in that case we'll probably pick up the seat. Even if Crist wins, he'll be bloodied. With a good campaign, we can still win. I don't know which of the announced or mentioned Democratic candidates would be strongest, but I'm cautiously hopeful about the prospects.
I think it's reality-based, not defeatism at all......
Florida is not Pennsylvania, the GOP primary electorate in Florida is ideologically more diverse than in Pennsylvania.  Crist handily won a GOP primary for Governor just 3 years ago, and two perceived moderates, McCain and Giuliani, combined for a majority of the hotly contested presidential primary votes a year ago.  I know some here say that Crist ran as a conservative in that last primary, and maybe that's how he talked, but my recollection from that year is very different, as I perceived Crist in real time as a moderate and a Jeb Bush rival.  No I'm not a Floridian, but even from out of state, Crist didn't look to me like a wingnut.  And Rubio is not Toomey; at least Toomey was a sitting Congressman in 2004, where Rubio nowadays is a former state legislator, and his status as former Speaker adds little-to-nothing to average voters.  No one knows or cares who Rubio is, and barring some tarring scandal they're not going to vote for Rubio over a sitting Governor.

So, frankly, against all our wishes I expect Crist to mop the floor with Rubio and then coast to a November victory.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Don't be surprised if Club For Growth steps in
Endorsing Rubio over Crist. After all, Crist supported the stimulus package which is a big nono in the republican primary electorate. I hope Crist loses the primary, and then we win the Governors race and the Senate race.
[ Parent ]
Do they have enough scrilla?
Even the CfG does not have unlimited funds.  Assuming they back their former president, Toomey, in PA that will already be one very expensive general election and potentially primary election as well. Presumably, they'll also back the R in NH, and there's potential for them to get involved in the MO and OH general elections, and maybe a primary challenge from the right in UT and an open OK race if their boy Coburn resigns.  Florida is so expensive.  I think it will be a bridge too far for them to fight Crist in FL.
[ Parent ]
More defeatism
This attitude, of course, becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

We have absolutely no basis at this time to compare Rubio as a candidate to Toomey. Nor do we know how Crist's negatives are going to play out. Nor do we know how the Florida Republican electorate has evolved over the last year, though one would guess it's been in the direction of "no," which would translate into "no on Crist."  

[ Parent ]
Our candidates suck
They suck bigtime.  Meek cannot even answer simple questions like how Crist is doing as Governor.  The guy has never run a competitive race in his life and is not even close to ready for prime time.  Even if Rubio or Crist run a poor campaign and get the nomination they'd still be favored over the clows we have running.
[ Parent ]
Exactly
It's not defeatism to be sane.  We have bad candidates.  If some good candidate comes along, that's different, but there is no sign at all of that happening.
[ Parent ]
I agree that Crist isn't a lock...
With Club for Growth backing and/or right wing nut love, Rubio can make Crist sweat to say the least.  The GOP base, particularly in the South has had it's fill of 'moderates', especially Obama-loving ones.

If memory serves, the primary (and runoff if there is one) is in September, which is a DEADLY time to have one.    

I wouldn't be too surprised to see or should I say 'not see', Jeb working behind the scenes on Rubio's behalf too.  And no, he does not have to make a public declaration for it to have an impact, IMO. Jeb might be willing to turns some screws to assure that he is the only FL GOP presidential candidate in 2016.    

Rubio and the Democrats would be wise not to mention the gay issue at all.  Let the media do that dirty work. If Rubio does it, then it will reek of desperation.

The chances of Rubio NOT running for senate is less than 10% IMO.  

Crist is the favorite in the primary and the general but he is not the shoo-in that some here think, IMO. Dems would be wise to be sure a decent candidate gets the nomination.  

[ Parent ]
Crist is favored to win in the Senate
For one, this isn't too suprising considering what the chatter in Florida was saying in these last few weeks. It is undeniable that Crist is very popular, having 60%+ approval ratings among Democrats, indepedents, and Republicans. He would start out as a strong favorite in both the primary and in the general election. The primary is late (Late August 2010 I think?) so Marco Rubio could potentially damage Crist enough among Republicans that they don't turn out to vote for Crist in a general election. However I think that this is unlikely unless Jeb Bush is actively and openly supporting Rubio (simply staying out of the primary won't be enough).

Anyway, as everyone has been saying, Crist wouldn't be to bad as a Republican: he seems to willing to compromise on economic issues and will probably join the Maine senators as part of the definite moderate wing. On the other hand Democrats now have a chance to get the Florida governorship and create less GOP favored gerrymandered seats for the next decade (althorough be warned that it will still be no more than 50/50 for Democrats to take the governorship)/

Crist's only real hurdle
is the primary.  If he wins the primary, he'll be in the Senate.  But since Florida is a closed primary, there is a chance that Crist may lose the primary.
Can Crist be "outed"?
There are numerous reports that Crist is gay - despite his recent hetero marriage. A Senate campaign would be the time to bring out any photos, if they exist, for maximum national impact. However, I'm not sure if that would lead to a backlash.
Is Outage enough proof?
Just to follow-up, I haven't seen "Outage," but presume with Crist's upcoming annoucement, it isn't enough "proof" for the public.
[ Parent ]
No no no
It's a bad strategy that would surely backfire.  Most in Florida already know about his lifestyle.  Most GOP voters knew in 2006 and still nominated him.  

Democrats would be wise to steer clear of the issue.  Though I'll bet Rubio at the very least alludes to it during the campaign.

[ Parent ]
Yeah exactly
Even people who do not follow politics that closely here seem to have heard the rumors that he's gay, so it doesn't seem to be an issue. When he had the wedding recently, everyone talked about it in the frame that he was gay but he was doing it for a potential presidential/vice-presidential run. He still has high-approval ratings. My guess would be that he'll win the Republican Primary, as Republicans seem to be somewhat pragmatic here. Both Crist and Mel Martinez were able to win previous primaries in Florida recently.
[ Parent ]
FL2
Do we have anything that says Sink will now run or is likely to run?

This is why I would rather have Crist run for Gov again.  We have no assurances Sink WILL run for Gov and if she doesn't then both GOV and SEN are most likely lost.

29/D/Male/NY-01

Siobhan
posted a link above saying that she told everyone she is in if Crist runs for Senate.

Woot!

[ Parent ]
Also
A friend of a friend of mine is a staffer for Sink.  He says she is in if Crist doesn't run in 2010.  Sink's background is tailor-made for the governorship.  She'd have at least a slight edge over any republican.
[ Parent ]
Can someone confirm this?
I read over at the GLBT news blog I was read that he supported Prop 2, the gay marriage amendment in Florida in 2008.  Is that true?  Did he really come out in support of it?

If so, I am all for Rubio outing him and killing his chances in the Senate Primary.  I think the voters could have a bigger problem with that then him being gay, period.  At least if he had just not said anything about Prop 2 or came out against it, everyone would know why and it'd be expected, now he looks like a tool.

Everyone already knows it...
at least everyone believes it. There's nothing to out.
[ Parent ]
Im sure
there are plenty of people who dont know.  Although I guess those who dont know or havent bothered to have themselves know wont be voting in the GOP primary.
[ Parent ]
this is the thing htat annoys me
no one has any proof that Crist is guy. It seems that whenever a politician isn't married by the time he's forty people assume he's gay and I don't think people, especially here, should be talking like its a proven fact that Crist is gay.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
My uncle
Personally saw him in a particular type of bar in south Florida back in the early to mid 90's on several occasions.  That's proof enough for me.  My uncle has always been known to be an honest guy.
[ Parent ]
but those kinds of stories
all ring so...what is the word, can't think of it, colloquial isn't it...ahhh that's annoying. In any case that's not proof either, it's a rumor, you see some guy that resembles Crist but you can't assume that's Crist.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
But noone else has orange skin
Except for Boehner.  It had to be Crist.
[ Parent ]
in florida?
please. people everywhere have those ridiculous spray on tans. Remember it is upon the claimant to provide enough evidence to defeat skepticism.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Gay
Actually there is 4realz evidence out there. Kind of. This video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...   which I originally saw on blogactive a while back. It's not the greatest proof but it shows there are some people out there speaking out about it.
[ Parent ]
My gaydar
points to many other thing gay things about him besides not having kids or being married (well now he is).  That orange skin makes him look ridiculous.  (Please tell me that the only correlating medical condition to that is a tanning addiction or I'll feel like an ass.)
[ Parent ]
Heh
Boehner has that same skin disorder.
[ Parent ]
And with that name...
John Boehner may have frequented some certain establishments back in the day.

Interestingly, he looks EXACTLY like a guy I see every week at Drag Queen Bingo. Were I not in Denver and he in DC/Ohio....I'd swear it was him.  

[ Parent ]
What kind of bingo?!
Tell me that was a snark.
[ Parent ]
I feel like saying:
You're face is a snark :P lol, could resist, feeling immature today.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Nope
My home bar in Denver, JRs, runs Drag Queen Bingo every Wednesday. It's a great time, but there's this mid-50s guy who looks identical to Boehner who plays every week.

Granted, one of the drag queens that calls numbers looks like Martin Sheen in drag. We call her President Bartlett and don't think she gets it.

[ Parent ]
lol
Funny stuff.
[ Parent ]
orange skin
My father and mother are snowbirds (not really "snowbirds" since we don't get much snow in NC, but you get the point).  My father will turn orange during the winter.  He never turned orange in NC, so I always wonder if it's something environmental in Tampa, or if it's because he's always outside walking the dog and chatting to neighbors.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Crist's future
I don't mind Charlie Crist, but I have to wonder if he won't take a couple of giant steps to the right.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
add a point
if he's elected to the Senate.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Doubt giant steps
But he'd likely move a bit right.  At the very least he'll be well left of Martinez.  So even a republican hold for this seat would be a net gain.  And that's not even mentioning the enormous benefit of a Governorship pickup.
[ Parent ]
Do you conclude that Crist is his own man?
I personally like Crist, and I'm not trying to drag him down with the rest of the GOP leaders, but I wonder if he can stand up against McConnell et al and be his own man.  He definitely has the potential to be a good Senator.

I hope Crist can avoid drifting too far to the right.  His election to the Senate would be a good thing for the GOP--possibly influencing the GOP caucus, and it would be a good thing for the Dems--the FL Governor's seat.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Yes
I believe he is.  He's never shown very much fear of the right-wing of his party, unlike many faux moderates.  He'll definately be a big headache for the Senate GOP leadership if he wins.
[ Parent ]
That's a good thing
The current GOP leadership needs some headaches within their caucus.  Do you think he will have much influence with the GOP leadership?

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
The problem is
As someone above already mentioned, as the chief executive of Florida he has significant leeway with his party. There's a lot he can get accomplished on his own with little help from the wingnuts in his party, while as a freshman Senator he will be more at the whims of McConnell and co. I think he'll be forced to move to the right as a Senator and he won't be particularly useful for us.

Rubio is a far weaker opponent.

[ Parent ]
does make all of us predictors look foolish
i could go through the archives and find almost every one on this blog predict with absolute certainty that he would never run for senate in 2010.  and now it's a sure thing.

i think it's good for many reasons - well if sink runs for gov anyway.  meek is running hard and seriously, has a moderate record, and will be there to win if rubio wins or crist stumbles.  and we can hope for an nasty internecine battle on the GOP side and alex sink to run a good campaign at the top of the ticket.

hahahaha
that is so true.  I certainly said that, "why the hell would he run for Senate?  that's stupid" is probably along the lines of what I said.

Makes more sense now, the guy wants long-term job prospects and Senate seats only open up so often.

[ Parent ]
Ya
It didn't seem like a logical move to me.  I was sure Crist wouldn't run for Senate.  Thankfully he is.
[ Parent ]
Not everyone
This dude turned out to be right on the money.
[ Parent ]
FL-Sen/Gov: Crist Will Announce Plans on Tuesday, Appears Set to Run for Senate | 90 comments

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