| Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/4-6, likely voters).
Democratic and Republican primary match-ups:
Pat Toomey (R): 41
Tom Ridge (R): 33
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 56
Joe Sestak (D): 11
Arlen Specter (D): 60
Joe Torsella (D): 5
(MoE: ±5%)
And here we have a taste of perhaps the reason why ex-Gov. Tom Ridge decided to dispense with the two-bit freak theater that a modern Republican primary campaign against arch-wingnut Pat Toomey would represent. After a long and successful career in politics, why top it off with the ignominy of a possible primary loss to the likes of Toomey? (We should note, though, that an internal R poll had Ridge crushing Toomsbury by nearly 40 points.)
In the Democratic primary, Specter is in pretty decent shape on the surface, but some potential vulnerabilities are quite apparent, according to R2K; only 37% of Democratic voters will definitely vote for Specter in the primary (vs. 16% who say they'll definitely vote for someone else), and another 23% say they'll consider choosing a different candidate. (A whopping 24% are undecided on that question, so presumably that vote is up for grabs, too.) Sestak and (especially) Torsella are mostly unknown to the primary electorate right now, so their numbers against Specter would have a lot of room for growth at the end of a big primary fight.
And now for the general election numbers:
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 55
Pat Toomey (R): 31
Joe Sestak (D): 37
Pat Toomey (R): 32
Joe Torsella (D): 35
Pat Toomey (R): 33
(MoE: ±5%)
Specter crushes Toomey like an empty can of PBR, but the ex-Club For Growth Prez would start off relatively close against either Sestak or Torsella. In terms of raw margins, though, this is very likely Toomey's high-water mark. By the time the DSCC is done toasting his supply-sided hide, it won't be close. |
