JMM Research for John Garamendi (dates unknown, likely voters):
John Garamendi (D): 24
Warren Rupf (R): 17
Mark DeSaulnier (D): 13
Joan Buchanan (D): 10
(MoE: ±5%)
Lt. Gov. John Garamendi has been shopping around for the just-right elected office for a long time now, and with Rep. Ellen Tauscher leaving behind an open seat in the U.S. House to head to the State Dept., he might just be ready to settle down. Garamendi got into the race late (after finally pulling the plug on his faltering 2010 gubernatorial campaign), with state Senator Mark DeSaulnier already having gobbled up many key endorsements. Still, Garamendi is in a strong position in his own internal poll, beating his two Democratic opponents combined, DeSaulnier and Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan. (The only other poll of this race was a Buchanan internal from late March which, not surprisingly, gave her the lead.)
Garamendi's position is largely thanks to his high name recognition: 80% know him, with 35/12 favorables. DeSaulnier is known by 39%, with 16/13 favorables, and Buchanan is known by 45%, with 17/12 favorables. The Republican polled, Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf, is known by 20%, with 9/9 favorables.
Rupf has not announced for the race, and doesn't really seem likely to run; he is, however, probably the strongest GOPer in the district. (San Ramon mayor Abram Wilson and former Assemblyman Guy Houston are other Republicans who've been linked to this race.) They were polled en masse because in the primary special election, all candidates are listed together in one pool, and if no one candidate receives more than 50% (unlikely with three top-tier Dems in the race), then the top vote-getter from each party advances to the general.
UPDATE: More discussion in californianintexas's diary. |
