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SSP Daily Digest: 5/5

by: Crisitunity

Tue May 05, 2009 at 5:53 PM EDT


• FL-Sen: Word on the street is that Charlie Crist will announce his plans regarding the Senate race on Monday. It sounds like he's eager to jump in as soon as possible after the end of the legislative session, to keep Marco Rubio from gaining any traction. If Crist's exalted-sounding riposte to Rubio's smacktalk yesterday is any indcation, he's already staking out the post-partisan high ground.

• NH-Sen: Over in what Dean Barker calls "Cloud Hampshire," Andy Smith of UNH still thinks there are more Republicans than Democrats in the Granite State. That could be why the notoriously unreliable pollster finds John Sununu, Jr. "leading" Paul Hodes 46-41. Take it for what it's worth - i.e., not very much at all. (D)

• MN-Gov: Ellison Endorses Entenza! Rep. Keith Ellison from Minneapolis lent his support to Matt Entenza, the former state House minority leader (and a friend of Ellison's from law school).

• OR-04: Republicans have recruited Springfield Mayor Sid Leiken to run against longtime incumbent Peter DeFazio. Don't be misled into thinking this D+2 district represents a good opportunity for the GOP - DeFazio is very popular (he won with 83% last year). More likely, the GOP is hoping DeFazio will run for the governor's mansion, leaving this seat open. (D)

• TX-17: GOP candidates once again are lining up for the opportunity to take on Rep. Chet Edwards. But Edwards keeps on finding a way to win in this wildly red district (at R+20, it's the 19th most-conservative seat in the entire country), and he isn't even on Frontline this year. Meanwhile, the Republican field is very much unsettled. (D)

• FL-24: State Republican chairman Jim Greer just announced that he won't take on freshman Dem Suzanne Kosmas this cycle. Yet another recruiting failure for Pete Sessions & the NRCC. (D)

• Mayors: There are two mayoral elections in big cities today: Detroit and Anchorage. Detroit is a Dem-on-Dem duel where there's not much ideological difference and it's more of an insider/outsider clash; Kenneth Cockrel, who took over as mayor after Kwame Kilpatrick resigned, is up against businessman (and Detroit Pistons great and NBA Hall of Famer) Dave Bing. Anchorage residents are choosing between Democrat Eric Croft and Republican Dan Sullivan to replace now-Sen. Mark Begich. Anchorage Mayor was an important stepping stone for all two of Alaska's prominent Dems: ex-Gov. Tony Knowles as well as Begich.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/5
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SSP Daily Digest: 5/5 | 53 comments
Kosmas is in great shape
Especially with Greer passing on the race.  The real battle is likely to be in FL-08, though that one is looking better now that Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty (R) is under investigation.
Bet she was secretly hoping he'd run.
I think Kosmas would've been better off with a known quantity in Greer. He's had tons of personal/professional scandals that could be exploited, plus there's no real answer to the most salient question: how would an in-your-face partisan party chairman counter Kosmas's bipartisanship/blandness and win in what's now a very marginal R district? No chance.
[ Parent ]
Oddly enough
I've known Suzanne for quite a few years.  I really expected her to be more moderate in the house.  Especially so in her first term.  Thus far I cannot think of a single piece of major administration pushed by the Obama Administration that she's voted against.  She's been rock solid.
[ Parent ]
budget i think


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Against it before she was for it
She voted for it at first, but in the end she voted for the budget.
[ Parent ]
Sorry
First voted against but then switched and voted for the final bill.
[ Parent ]
She voted against
The use of reconciliation on healthcare. She also voted against the budget.
[ Parent ]
Even I would have a hard time
voting for reconciliation on healthcare...simply because it would only be good for a few years and in a few years, we might not be in charge.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
The first budget nay vote was just so she could get NASA funding (Kennedy Space Center is in her district)
When it came back around the second time, she voted yes. I don't think she was against the budget for any other reason than that. Personally I thought she'd be a little less New Dem and a little more Blue Dog. Her huge margin in '08 (highest challenger margin of the cycle) was, in my opinion, more anti-Feeney than pro-Kosmas. But I guess she feels that she's safe enough in '10 to vote the way she wants. Know anything about the two R's mentioned in the CQ article?
[ Parent ]
Link below.
[ Parent ]
I hope Chet Edwards keeps TX-17
His district is way to the right.  I hope we can re-elect him in 2010.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
It also amazes me how he survives
Chet isn't even all that conservative.
[ Parent ]
Is statewide office in Chet's future? n/t

[ Parent ]
He's still relatively young
and could be waiting for the political reality in Texas to change to where Democrats are viable statewide.

Also, his district would be gone if he ran, so maybe waiting for another round of redistricting where maybe they can get another seat to make the loss of his moot.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
I wouldnt be shocked
if his district is made much less familiar to him after redistricting. It can probably get more GOP/conservative but i think hes more likely to lose in a mostly unfamiliar but slightly less GOP district than a mostly familiar but slightly more GOP district. As itd be like running for an open seat almost. And here in TX (although maybe its different in rural TX) we dont even know who our own congressman is, no less our neighboring congressmen. So theyd have no idea who he is. Hed just be 'a Democrat'. And as someone said earlier...hes not that conservative. Kind of odd that Cuellar, who represents a district that went for Obama (and by 12 pts. no less), is actually more conservative. Though i think hes been less conservative the past couple or few years. But there was a time he was actually endorsed by the Club for Growth.
[ Parent ]
Hopefully he can hang on another decade
By then Texas will be much more ripe for him to run statewide.  But getting through 4 or 5 more elections to his house seat is naturally tough.  Though I have to give him credit, if he can survive 2002 and 2004 he can survive almost anything.
[ Parent ]
2002 and 2004
He had a much D friendlier district in 2002.  But, he was one of the moderate, white Democrats targeted in the Delay gerrymander for 2004.  He won 51-47; the only targeted D to survive the gerrymander.
[ Parent ]
Doggett survived as well
He was targeted by being given a minority-majority district with the expectation he would lose the primary, which never happened.  Though it was never expected a republican had any chance of beating him.
[ Parent ]
they radically changed his
Ft. Worth district in 2004 and gave him almost totally new areas, and super conservative regions, then nominated a high powered State Rep who spent like 2 million and on top of that they had Bush's 69-30 win over the district for coattails and Edwards still won.

Other dems, like Jim Turner, didn't even bother running. Others, like Sandlin, Frost, and Lampson lost in significantly less Republican districts and indeed didn't even come that close, especially suprising since Max Sandlin lost 60-40 depsite being a 10 term incumbent and more conservative Gene Taylor.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Frost
Actually, the pre-DeLaymander TX-24 went for Gore by 8 points and probably went for Kerry also. It covered parts of Fort Worth, Arlington, and Dallas, which I'm guessing had a higher proportion of minorities compared to the surrounding area.

Compared to the old TX-24, the lily-white TX-32 that Frost got redistricted into in 2004 was lily-white in comparison. I know, because I canvassed for Frost in summer 2004. Only one neighborhood I canvassed in had a considerable proportion of minorities. Though the minority population there now has probably gotten bigger since then. Sessions has not been able to crack 60% in the new TX-32.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
the fact is that
Frost performed PATHETIC! I donated to him, Democrats spent FIVE MILLION DOLLARS PROTECTING HIM. He was running against a hardright conservative Pete Sessions in a mixed district that was fairly new to both of them, and he lost 56-44. He overperformed John Kerry in that district by 1 point while others like Edwards and Stenholm overperformed Kerry by 20 and 21 points, even blow out losers like Sandlin and Lampson outperformed kerry by 5-7 points in their districts, that's all Frost had to do and he couldn't do it.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
States where the Democratic Party needs a dunking of cold water
Texas, Florida...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
The FL state house and senate maps
Are the mother of all gerrymanders.  It's easily the most bizarre and disgustingly partisan set of maps in the country.  Even in the disasterously bad years of 2006 and 2008 for the GOP we only pickup up a half dozen state house seats and ZERO state senate seats.
[ Parent ]
Yup
The strategy i just outlined is the GOP's best hope to get rid of Chet Edwards, IMO, and even that wasnt enough in 2002. Maybe it will be in 2012 but who knows. Only time will tell.  
[ Parent ]
Not Yet
Edwards is exteremely well known and liked in his district.  But, outside of his district, he's still pretty much unknown.  And, in Texas the generic R still beats the generic D by about 10 points.  So, he'd need a ton of money to change the race from a generic R v. generic D and Edwards is not in that category of fundraiser.  As Texas becomes bluer with demographic changes, a statewide race would become more viable, but I don't see it for Edwards in the immediate future.
[ Parent ]
he's a fairly good fundraiser
we saw him, though left for dead by most Democrats in 2004, raise nearly 3 million and run a fantastic campaign to win a big upset.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Thanks
Thanks for the info.  That's better fundraising than I had supposed.  But, still not close to the amounts needed to run a winning Texas statewide race.  Of course, if he were running for Governor or senator, it's a higher profile race and I'm sure he could raise much more.  Off the top of my head, I'm thinking it would take $20 million or more for a Democrat to win in Texas.  
[ Parent ]
If you look at how the vote goes in his district
he's in far less danger in midterms than in presidential votes, which turns out more Texas Republicans.

In 2004 and 2008 approximately 250,000 voters turned out, and Edwards scored 51 and 53%.  In the interim in 2006, turnout plunged by nearly 100,000 voters, and Edwards scored nearly 60%.

The district's baseline voters are more favourable to him than when everybody (or as close to 'everybody' as you can get there) shows up.

[ Parent ]
Ya, it's weird
In districts where Dem in marginal districts have to depend on the black vote to win it seems like Presidential years are the tough cycles and midterm elections are harder.  But in almost entirely white districts like Chet Edwards's the Presidential years are toughest.
[ Parent ]
Well, it's justifiable
Since presidential years turn out more less-informed party-line voters.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Crist
Quite frankly, I'd be fine with Crist in the Senate.  Meek has been thoroughly unimpressive, and Crist strikes me as a good guy.
I'm fine with it
Even if he stayed out of the race Meek or Gelber would be an underdog.  I'm fine with a Senator Crist and Governor Sink if it comes to that.
[ Parent ]
Crist
My sister and brother-in-law are yellow-dog type Democrats in Florida, and they absolutely love Crist.  They get a lot of satisfaction listening to their neighbors complain that Crist is absolutely horrible for the GOP party.  Personally, I think the GOP should promote Crist and accept him for being a moderate, but I don't see it happening on a broad level.  My sister and brother-in-law plan to vote for him for the Senate if he does run.  My brother-in-law says that Crist could be very influential with the GOP leadership in altering their image.  I don't know if I totally agree with his comment, because as we all know that the GOP has such little tolerance for politians dissenting from their narrow-minded views.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
I havn't had much problem with the guy
The only major issue he pushed that I wasn't a fan of was his property tax reform.  Something had to be done to reform Florida's property tax laws, but his plan which was passed had many flaws.  Though even in that case Crist isn't entirely at fault.  The voters passed it by referendum with >60%.

I don't think Sink would be a huge shift left as Governor from Crist, but my main concern is the need for a Democratic Governor to break up a Republican gerrymander in 2012.  Though it is possible that Crist won't even sign onto an all-out repub gerrymander.

[ Parent ]
FL-Gov
Any word on which Democrats would be interested if Crist runs for Senate?  I know Sink is considered our strongest candidate--would she run?
[ Parent ]
If I had to put odds on it
I'd say greater than 80% chance she would get in.  Very little chance she wouldn't go for it.  She'd be crazy not to.
[ Parent ]
Would be Great
You mention upthread how gerrymandered Florida is.  Winning the governorship is probably our only way to break the GOP's stranglehold on Florida.  The current delegation splits are terrible for a state that is so close to 50-50 over the last three presidential elections.  I'd rather have the FL governorship than one FL senate seat.
[ Parent ]
Problem would remain
We're going to get more uber-gerrymandered state house and senate maps regardless of who is Governor.  The Governor does NOT have veto power over state legislature maps.  

A Democratic Governor would only ensure a U.S. congressional map would be a compromise map rather than a repub gerrymander.  

[ Parent ]
That Sux
Well at least fair congressional districts would be a huge improvement.

It doesn't sound like there is any hope to break the gerrymander of state house and senate seats via the legislature.  A good gerrymander could keep Republicans in power even if large majorities of voters vote for Ds.  Seems like best bet may be some sort of popular referendum instituting an independent commission or something similar.

[ Parent ]
Going to have to be a scandel/economic problems to be quite honest
Prior to 2006 Ohio looked equally as hopeless as Florida.  Ohio had an entirely Republican set of statewide office holders, including Governor and solid majorities in the state house and senate.  Within three years all that went up in smoke thanks to a poor state economy and massive Republican scandels going as high as Governor Taft.

Basically that's what it would take in Florida.  Either massive economic problems whereby Repubs in Tallahassee are held responsible or a big scandel on their part.  If Crist remains Governor I can't see the latter happening.  The guy seems honest by every indication I've seen.

[ Parent ]
If Dave Bing wins in Detroit ...
   will there be any Mayoral one-on-one games with the Mayor of Sacramento, CA?  (That would be Kevin Johnson, another former NBA star)

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
There is a large age difference
Bing is 66, Johnson is 43.  So I don't think that would be happening.
[ Parent ]
Kevin Johnson
How is he doing as mayor? I wonder if he has statewide ambitions, too.  
[ Parent ]
Johnson was just elected last year.
Not sure if he has any statewide ambitions yet. He will probably wait out 2010, win reelection in 2012, and maybe go for an open statewide position in 2014.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I know they were completely frivilious allegations
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K...

But the sexual harrassment garbage could always rear it's ugly head against Johnson.

And I see he won the Mayor's race easily.  And against the sitting Mayor nonetheless.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ra...

Kevin Johnson - 74,154 (57.22%)
Heather Fargo - 54,839 (42.31%)

[ Parent ]
Didn't know thta race had happened
Nice to see he won.  It sounded like his opponents were throwing a lot of frivilous claims against him.
[ Parent ]
Re NH
I had a feeling that poll wasn't accurate, especially given that Sununu just lost by 7 points. What's this outfit's track record like?
Crap

[ Parent ]
as he said
crap. They alwasy have way to many undecided voters and they consistently overstated Republican strength, mainly because they exagerrated the Republican composition and undercut the Democratic composition.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Dave Bing wins Detroit Mayoral race
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/...

Businessman and professional basketball Hall-of-Famer Dave Bing has been elected Detroit's newest mayor and will serve through the end of the year.

The 65-year-old Detroit Pistons great defeated incumbent and fellow Democrat Ken Cockrel Jr. Tuesday in a special runoff election, 52.3 percent to 47.7 percent.

Bing will serve out the remainder of Kwame Kilpatrick's second term, but must run again in the regular Aug. 4 nonpartisan primary and win the Nov. 3 general election to hold onto the mayor's seat for a full four years.

The founder of steel manufacturer The Bing Group announced his run for mayor the day after Kilpatrick stepped down as part of pleas to two criminal cases.

The 43-year-old Cockrel moved up from city council president after Kilpatrick resigned.


Seattle!
You should not leave out Seattle, they have both King County Executive and the Mayoral Race are shaping into a battle royale in Washington State. Don't leave Seattle out!
Between Democrats or Dem vs. Repub?
Do Republicans really have any chance at either?  Both Seattle and King County seem far to Democratic for a Republican to win anymore.
[ Parent ]
Non-Partisan but . . .
The races are technically non-partisan but it usually breaks down not Republican vs Democrat but rather Pro-Business vs Pro-Community (you like the framing there?). The races usually feature mostly Dem with a few Repub, but it always shakes down to who has the backing of the Building and Industry Association of Washington (BIAW) and who is against their influence in Olympia.
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 5/5 | 53 comments

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