Marist Poll (4/28-29, registered voters, late Feb. in parens). First, the NY-Gov primary matchups:
Andrew Cuomo (D): 70 (62)
David Paterson (D-inc): 21 (26)
(MoE: ±4.5%)Rudy Giuliani (R): 75
Rick Lazio (R): 14
(MoE: ±6%)
And the general election matchups:
David Paterson (D-inc): 32 (38)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 56 (53)David Paterson (D-inc): 37
Rick Lazio (R): 40Andrew Cuomo (D): 55 (56)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 38 (39)Andrew Cuomo (D): 67
Rick Lazio (R): 22
(MoE: ±3%)
Paterson losing to Rick Lazio? That Rick Lazio? Oh man. Please, just make it stop. Believe it or not, though, it actually gets worse. In response to the question “Who would you rather have as governor right now?”, voters prefer Eliot Spitzer over David Paterson by a 51-38 margin. Yeesh.
Sigh. Okay. The Senate side primary head-to-heads:
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 36
Carolyn Maloney: 31
(MoE: ±4.5%)George Pataki (R): 48 (56)
Peter King (R): 36 (32)
(MoE: ±6%)
And the general:
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 38 (45)
George Pataki (R): 46 (41)Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 42 (49)
Peter King (R): 31 (28)
(MoE: ±3%)
Marist unfortunately doesn’t offer any explanation as to why Gillibrand’s numbers have dropped. Her approvals have worsened, from 18-32 to 19-38. But on that question, Marist is a strange outlier from all other outfits – no one else has Gillibrand under water like that.
As for a potential primary challenge, Marist showed Gillibrand with almost identical numbers a few months back against the other Rep. Carolyn (McCarthy of Long Island). But I’m convinced that Steve Israel is by far the most likely to actually show up, and is the only person I think would have any kind of chance.
Gillibrand hasn’t done anything noticeable that would harm her numbers, so far as I’ve seen.
I stand by my earlier prediction that she’ll fend off anybody who ends up challenging her, either in the primaries or in the general.
here.
Why? I don’t see him as particularly strong, certainly not any stronger than Maloney. Israel is basically a male Gillibrand.
As opposed to simply dead for Paterson. Gillibrand’s carrying a lot of baggage. Who appointed her, the circumstances of her appointment, and her blue dog house record. Downstate New Yorkers are not taken in by her supposed move to the left. Carolyn Maloney will be the next senator from New York.
I know it’s tacky to say so, but I don’t think that we’re so damn far beyond the melting pot of New York politics that religion, race, and ethnicity aren’t at least as important as region.
So what we have here is Roman Catholic Kristen Gillibrand, nee Rutnik (and married to a British national) vs Carolyn McCarthy and/or Carolyn Maloney, both also Catholic, vs Steve Israel, who’s probably Jewish, judging from his last name (yeah, I’m kidding). And this going on in a state where the party succeeded for decades by having the leaders go into the back room and come out with “a balanced ticket.”
The balanced ticket consisted of “someone for everyone” for the four top statewide offices and a Senate seat. So, at least one Jewish candidate, at least one Irish or Italian Catholic, in later years one black (or perhaps a Hispanic), at least one non-Jewish non-Irish non-Italian candidate, as well as at least one from the City, one from the suburbs, one from Upstate, and not more than two from any category. Say what you will, this politically incorrect quota system was a winning formula. And this affirmative action policy produced outstanding politicians like the German Catholic Robert Wagner, the Jewish Herbert Lehman, the WASP Averill Harriman, and the Irishman Daniel Patrick Moynihan.
So heading into the paddock, we have a sitting Senator who happens to be Jewish. (My hunch is this will work very much against Steve Israel.) We have an Italian Attorney General who might well run for Governor. We have a black Governor who is in a heap of trouble. (We also have a black likely to be the party’s nominee for Mayor who is likely to lose to the Jewish incumbent. Seeing two blacks in a row lose their races could disillusion some black voters and mean low turnout and trouble for the Democrats in the fall of 2010.) We have a vacancy for Lt Gov. We have an Italian serving as State Comptroller.
Hmmmn. Schumer, Patterson, and Cuomo are from the City. Comptroller DiNapoli is from the suburbs. Upstate has Albany-reared Gillibrand. Four men and one woman.
But the Irish are shut out of the top offices in New York State. Unless an Irish candidate gets cleared for the soon-to-be-vacant Attorney General’s spot and soon, they will be restless. One of the female Irish candidates will likely run against Gillibrand.
Yeah, it’s tribal. I didn’t cause it; I just report it. And I’m not predicting who will win.
Is she running ads? Obviously not since nobody.knows.who.she.is. And since she is a fundraising monster that isn’t a problem. Don’t know what the fuss is about.
Patterson’s numbers are a reflection of having a bad economy and having to enact unpopular policies. Unpopular both to dems and republicans. He’s had ads run against him for month. The question is whether he can recover. Especially since winning (and hence recovering) may depend on him playing rough rather than nice.
Gillibrand’s problem is still bad name identification. A lot of people only vaguely know she even is Senator nevermind who she is. Unlike Schumer and former Senator Clinton she is not a fixture on the news. And unlike both of them even political junkies would have difficult for example recognizing what her voice sounds like.
Unlike Patterson it is not a matter of anyone liking or disliking the job she’s doing. Just her need to be be more aggressive presenting herself to the voters.