If Rupf even running?

I guess Contra Costa County is still receptive enough of Republicans, at the local level, to elect them to a countywide/near countywide position. But I doubt he'd stand much of a chance in the general. In the previous lines (though those would surely be heavily Dem today), back in the 90s, he might stand an ok chance. But not now. Maybe im not surprised they elected a Republican sheriff. I remember reading an article about an East Bay city taking a hard line approach on illegal immigration and obviously illegal immigration is an issue many voters take into consideration when electing a sheriff. So while they may be otherwise socially liberal, who knows, maybe theyre conservative on immigration.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 06:28:19 AM UTC

contra costa

qwnt 67-30 for fpr obaam

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 06:35:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Repub Sheriff

   We have a GOP Sheriff in Los Angeles County, which is no longer very hospitable to the GOP. I think our District Atty is also GOP. In these managerial, not especially political offices you can get some unexpected results...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

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by: Zack from the SFV @ Thu May 07, 2009 at 15:01:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm dubious about a poll like this

No doubt Garamendi has a large advantage in terms of name ID - but I wouldn't be so sure it will hold

We don't even know yet when the election will be (a date won't be set until Tauscher is confirmed).

A special election (especially during the summer) will invariably be a low turnout affair -- meaning that broad name identification is less important in some ways than on the ground organization and fundraising. I would assume that candidates who have recently won campaigns in the district (Buchanan and DeSaulnier) would have more of a local organization in place than a statewide official like Garamendi - and are more in tune with the local political environment. And remember that because of campaign finance laws, Garamendi can't transfer funds from his gubernatorial campaign into a federal race.

Garamendi probably is still the favourite here, but I would expect this race to tighten up considerably as the campaign actually goes on, and any of the 3 leading Democrats could easily end up winning a primary.  

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by: terje @ Tue May 05, 2009 at 17:48:24 PM UTC