Wow,

is Shurtleff one of those simply out of there minds conservative, that new generation who thinks their parties problem is its not conservative enough?

Well he could be a good candidate, only problem is he would really offend the mormon population which is anti-alcohol.

But if he could possibly self-fund to the degree of a few million he might have a shot at being competitive if Shurtleff wins a narrow and nasty primary.

Next thing oyu know they'll be priamrying Orin Hatch for not being outspoken enough on conservative issues and for being too polite and cozy to democrats, amicable in other words.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 23:01:03 PM UTC

Granato doesn't drink

From the article:

Granato is known as one of the nondrinkers on the Liquor Control Commission, which makes his optimism about running for the Senate in Utah as a Democrat even more impressive.

Check out the Guru's blog at http://www.senateguru.com/

---

by: Senate Guru @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 01:47:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

They want to

Hatch is definitely seen by the Utah Republican electorate as more liberal than Bennett, just on different issues. His support of stem cell research, for example, angers the conservative factions in Utah even more than Bennett's middling support for some types of comprehensive immigration solutions.

Interestingly, Utah is the only state in the nation where both Senators had never held elective office before ascending to the Senate. Granato would continue that tradition.  

---

by: adam.kretz @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 16:11:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Utah is interesting in the long-term

It's exploding population isn't just due to high birthrate, there are a lot of West Coasters and others coming for the low house prices, a pattern repeated in many other inner states like Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada.  And as we saw with the other states, that growth has turned the states towards us.  Obama actually won Salt Lake County, and it's pretty much impossible now to draw any congressional map that doesn't give us at least one winnable district.

Bennett deserves the best challenge we can give him, especially if he is facing a credible primary challenge.

---

by: skaje @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 00:38:18 AM UTC

Is there a list of states with demographic trends going our way somewhere?

I'd love to see just how many states look promising in five, ten, fifteen, or twenty years.  I'm willing to bet it's a big number.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

---

by: ARDem @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 03:25:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What if it's a four-way crack of both Salt Lake and Grand Counties?

Those are the two counties that went for Obama, right?

Is an "ultimate" four-way street-level-gerrymandered crack possible?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 04:28:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obama also won Summit County

Obama won Summit County 57-41 barely won Salt Lake and Grand County and barely lost San Juan and Carbon. McCain easily won all the other counties. The Utah legislature has actually passed two 4 seat maps. After the 2000 census when Utah thought they might get a 4th seat(Utah only lost the last seat by 857 people and Utah tried to go through the courts to get a 4th seat because the census doesnt count mormon missionaries) they passed a map in commmittee called plan A it would of created a seat around SLC and connected it to Washington County(St. George) but unlike Mathesons current seat it went through the west side of Utah instead of the East avoiding some democrat areas like Summit, Carbon, & Grand County. That map also created a seat that took in the rest of Salt Lake County. Both of those districts would have gone about 43% for Obama with the other 2 district being extremely republican. In 2006 after the elections there was a chance that congress might pass the DC voting act but it didnt come up in the lame duck session. But Utah passed a map called Plan L and it would have created a seat based around SLC and some of its suburbs and part of Summit County(Park City) considering Obama won both counties Obama would have won that seat. But both of these maps were drawn before Obama improved by 8% over Kerry in Utah. So considering what they did to Matheson after the 2000 Census I would guess the best Democrats could do is two seats that went about %40 for Obama. Mathesons current district went 39% for Obama.

---

by: ThinkBlue @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 06:46:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What's the worse we could do?

Assuming that Matheson stays in, will we be basically guaranteed to have one district?

And do we have a bench to work with in the other (relatively) D-leaning district?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 13:53:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Only Matheson family members

If however republicans redrew Matheson's district to be a safe D district to shore up the other 3 in 2012 Matheson may be vulnerable from that left.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 16:02:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Utah

Yes we should hold at least one district as long as Matheson stays in the house. His district voted 31% for Kerry and 39% for Obama and Matheson each time outperformed them by about 23%. When Utah gets a 4th seat republicans could keep his seat around 40% unless they give up on defeating Matheson creating him a district that Obama won. A second competetive seat probably wont happen even if they give Matheson a seat that connects Salt Lake City with St George. Instead of creating a competetive seat in the southern Salt Lake City suburbs they could split the rest of Salt Lake County and connect those to Utah County. In case Matheson ever retires or a second seat ever becomes competitive Dems do have a bench to work with. Dems control 8 of 11 senate seats based in Salt Lake County with no seats outside of the County and they control 19 house seats based in Salt Lake County and only 3 outside. And in Utah it you dont have to live in the district you represent. Jason Chaffetz who represents the 3rd district actually lives in Mathesons district.

---

by: ThinkBlue @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 16:32:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Counties, and state legislature bodies

1. What's special about those counties that makes them more Dem-friendly?  Obviously, Salt Lake and Summit Counties are in the SLC vicinity, and I've heard that Grand County has some ski resorts.  But why Carbon and San Juan counties, and why St. George?

2. How many seats total are there in the state senate and house?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 17:35:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

all caveats about second-hand info apply here...

...But I heard that there's a regional/demographic divide that goes on in Utah that's a pretty good indicator of Republicans and Democrats.

Just like Upstate New Yorkers seem to register Republican partially to distinguish themselves from Democratic-dominated NYC, in Utah the non-Mormons (and of course, the urban liberals in SLC) are Democrats, while the Mormons are Republicans.

This might be wrong, though - anyone have on the ground info?

---

by: BigTentProgressive @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 21:37:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Carbon and San Juan County

Carbon County was originally settled by nonmoromons miners and has always been dem friendy and San Juan County is over 50% Native American. St. George is one of the most conservative places in Utah its where a lot of Utahns go to retire.  

---

by: ThinkBlue @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 23:57:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

St. George

Oops, I read it wrong.  Yeah, it makes sense now that it's ridiculously Republican based on the original statement (gerrymandering redistricting Matheson to give him SLC + SG such that that he takes up some ridiculously red areas).

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun May 03, 2009 at 20:00:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Grand County has no ski resorts

Grand County is home to Moab, Arches National Park, all that stuff.  More outdoorsy stuff like biking and hiking trails.  I've heard that Grand County is the least Mormon county in all of Utah, largely because a lot of people from elsewhere have moved to Moab.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

---

by: TDDVandy @ Mon May 04, 2009 at 16:48:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Having

a viable candidate in Utah who can raise enough money to be considered a serious candidate is always good in my book. We're not winning Utah any time soon (if ever) but it never hurts to get the message out.  

---

by: Populista @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 02:47:05 AM UTC

Is this the guy?

I read the article and, while I'm glad we at least have someone reputable running, this guy doesn't strike me as anything other than a third tier candidate.  At least he holds an office even though it doesn't sound like an elective, partisan office.  He not a celebrity.  He's a small business owner, but it doesn't sound like he's got the scratch to self-fund a first rate Senate race.  I'm glad the guy is running but I'm skeptical he'd be more than a speed bump for whoever the Republican nominee is.

---

by: sicembears @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 18:08:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think we will win Utah in the next 20 years

---

by: ccharles000 @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 04:18:47 AM UTC

I'm not sure about Utah

I can see us winning Montana soon, Idaho and Wyoming later, but Utah is going to continue to be very tough due to the large Mormon population, which, as someone has mentioned, is politically similar to those southern conservatives.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 04:30:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Harry Reid

Isn't it strange that the most powerful Mormon politician in the country, Harry Reid, is a Democrat?

---

by: David Kowalski @ Sun May 03, 2009 at 08:25:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

but he grew up in the old mining communities

which had a lot of old school labor democrats so he wasn't culturally a mormon all the way.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Sun May 03, 2009 at 16:32:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Reid was also a late convert

I think he converted to Mormonism while he was in college in Utah, not a lifelong Mormon.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

---

by: TDDVandy @ Mon May 04, 2009 at 16:46:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Win what exactly?

If you mean win anything statewide you might want to think again.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 05:10:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wouldnt count out Jim Matheson

In 2004 when Scott Matheson jr(Jims brother and son of Scott Matheson Sr the last Dem governor of Utah 1977-85) ran for governor he lost to Hunstman 59-41 outperforming Kerry by 15. In 2008 Obama improved over Kerry by 8% so if you give Scott Matheson and extra 8% that puts him at 49%. I would think that Jim would make a better statewide candidate over Scott considering Scott has never held elected office and Jim has represented the 2nd district since 2001 and between 2002-2006 Matheson was the democrat that held the most republican seat until Chet Edwards won in 2006. So in an open seat statewide race I would think Matheson would have a decent shot at winning.

---

by: ThinkBlue @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 07:10:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Scions of two prominent UT families

Huntsman was so ridiculously popular that Utah Republicans didn't renominate their incumbent governor, Olene Walker, for re-election. She didn't even have a chance.

And for Utah, Huntsman is a steal. Conservative sure, but reasonable and well-meaning, I feel.  

---

by: adam.kretz @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 16:14:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

nope

not gonna happen. I was optimistic too at first. I was like, yeah! Look at that 11 point improvement, that's tied for first best improvement in a single state, along with Indiana. Then I looked at the crosstabs and saw the youngest class bucked hte national trend and was actually more conservative than their parents and grandparents. The only group Obama won were 30-44 year olds and these are mostly the growing adult population that moved to Utah from other states.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 19:47:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You know, even if Granato loses his run may still be worth it.

If the demographics truly are going our way the margin of the loss might give us an idea how long it will be before we Utah becomes a state we can compete in.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

---

by: ARDem @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 06:23:55 AM UTC