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NH-01: Guinta Files to Run Against Shea-Porter

by: James L.

Fri May 01, 2009 at 5:03 PM EDT


Manchester Mayor Frank Guinta (R) has filed to run against Democratic Rep. Carol Shea-Porter. CQ has more:

Guinta recently announced he would not seek re-election as mayor and was mulling a run for federal office in 2010. But Guinta has not publicly announced whether he will run for the open Senate seat or for the 1st Congressional District seat.

Guinta's advisor, Mike Biundo, stressed Friday that the mayor has yet to make an official announcement, adding that one is expected in the coming week.

Guinta is a pretty good grab for the GOP, but as the folks at Blue Hampshire argue, he's a pretty rabidly right-wing dude who may find his own mouth to be his undoing once he spends some time on the stump. An NRCC-sponsored poll found CSP leading Guinta by only 43-34, but who knows what kind of sampling skullduggery their pollsters were engaging in order to make the race more enticing for their leading recruit.

In the meantime, though, CSP's sluggish fundraising (only $111K raised in the first quarter of 2009) will certainly keep this one interesting.

James L. :: NH-01: Guinta Files to Run Against Shea-Porter
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NH
Hopefully she can pick up the pace.

Do we have anyone on tap in the other NH race?

29/D/Male/NY-01


That state senator


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
At least four
Katrina Swett and Mark Fernald were the names I recognized offhand, but there are two others who will be doing a debate with them shortly, if I recall correctly. And it's still very early in the game, so other figures might be hopping in before long, too.

[ Parent ]
I'm not really all that concerned
If she's ahead by nine points in an NRCC poll. This is not taking into account that John Stephen will probably also be running again. Carol Shea-Porter seems to fit the district nicely, even though its about as tough a hold as they come for New England districts; Manchester is still pretty conservative with a lot of Reagan Democrats too.But she shocked me in 2006 by beating Jeb Bradley who I never thought would lose, even to that State Minority leader who she upset. Then she expanded her margin in 2008 across the board. She seems to be establishing a firm hold on it but state Republicans just aren't willing to cede it.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Fundraising seems to be a problem
for her and Hodes.

Shea-Porter trailed Bradley early on in 2008
July 2008: Down 40%-46%

September 2008: Down 42%-45%

November 2008: Up 44-41%

All throughout, dangerous numbers, but she prevailed by 6% in the final results.

This seat should be safe absent a GOP wave.


even then I'm not sure Guinta could win
he's really really conservative for what is a very moderate seat. Heck, even Bradley was one of the most liberal house republicans, more liberal, actually, than Charlie Bass despite the fact that Bass represented the far more Democratic district.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Good to hear
I really like Shea-Porter, she's exactly the type of non-politician we need more of in Congress.

[ Parent ]
Granite State polls suck
I seriously doubt she was actually trailing at any point in the race.  That polling outfit sucks.

[ Parent ]
Well, at least it does keep us aware that there's a race
and if anything, it causes them to waste more money on this. :P

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Well ..
Corporations(or their employees who do contribute) aren't exactly lining up to donate to her I bet .. like say the banksters

Weak sauce, dude. (eom)


[ Parent ]
She's been sending out fundraising e-mails.
Her campaign e-mail list is one of the few incumbent e-mail lists that I got on last year.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]

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