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SSP Daily Digest: 5/1

by: Crisitunity

Fri May 01, 2009 at 1:28 PM EDT


• PA-Sen: Rep. Joe Sestak is actually sounding likelier to jump into the Senate race than he did before Arlen Specter's party swap. Interviews this week find him taking on a more belligerent tone and staking out an outsider position. Sen. Bob Casey, however, is moving right away to say he'll support Specter no matter what happens in the primary.

• IN-Sen: A Hamilton Campaigns poll finds Evan Bayh with ridiculously high favorables: 74/23, with even 61% from Republicans. He also has $11.4 million in the bank. You think with that level of popularity maybe he could drop the defensive crouch and stop reflexively opposing his party's agenda?

• CA-32: As the May 19 special election primary fast approaches, Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu and state Senator Gil Cedillo have started going at each other hammer-and-tongs. Cedillo's camp has sent out mailers charging Chu with giving special tax breaks to corporate campaign contributors; Chu's camp responds that they were "routine refunds of overpaid sales taxes." Chu leads in fundraising and endorsements, but will need to make substantial inroads into the Latino vote in this district with a Latino majority but a large Asian bloc.

• CA-45: We've known for a while that openly-gay Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougnet was intending to challenge Rep. Mary Bono Mack in this newly-blue district (still R+3), but he made it official earlier this week.

• AR-St. House: Here's one I'm still trying to wrap my head around: until this week, there was actually a Green Party member in a state House of Representatives. And it wasn't Vermont, Maine, or Oregon: it was Arkansas, of all places. Well, that ended this week, as State Rep. Richard Carroll of North Little Rock switches to the Democratic Party today. (The effect of the switch is minimal: Dems now control the House 75-25.)

• Swingnuts' Delight: Everything you ever wanted to know about the awesome delicacy that is chocolate babka. Stick around here long enough and DavidNYC might send you one! (Hat-tip: reader RC)
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SSP Daily Digest: 5/1 | 89 comments
Arkansas and West Virginia are so odd
While the rest of the South, even Louisiana and Tennessee most recently, has finally moved to the GOP on the state level, Democrats still have massive majorities in these two states' legislatures and boast two incredibly popular governors in Beebe and Manchin. And yet these were exactly the kinds of states (socially conservative, rural, Ozark or Appalachian heritage with lower-than-average black populations for the South) where Obama did more poorly than Kerry. So strange.

20 years old, male, GA-12 (home), GA-10 (school); previously lived in CA-29, CA-28, CA-23, IL-06, IL-14, GA-01.
Not only that
Despite Obama's poor performance in West Virginia Dems still managed to pickup 5 state Senate seats and 7 state House seats in the state, to add to their already massive majorities.
[ Parent ]
Manchin
Well, yes, they have Democratic majorities and governors - but not ones that people in other areas would recognize as such on a lot of issues. It wouldn't shock me if Manchin is more popular among Republicans than Democrats, and the WV House of Delegates is very socially conservative and hugely friendly to Big Coal.
[ Parent ]
Basically
We're going to have to face the facts when Rockefeller or Byrd retires from the Senate.  The next West Virginia Senator is going to be a Manchin type politician, which is a good bit right of Rockefeller or Byrd.  Those two keep getting re-elected off of long-term incumbancy.
[ Parent ]
can someone explain this to me
so, state house races go uncontested all the time.  There are so many republicans who democrats refuse to challenge.  Yet, the Arkansas democratic party, in their infinite wisdom, deicides to threaten a challenge against a green party member?  What exactly does this accomplish?
This guy is NOT a liberal
I read a little about the guy.  He supports parental notification, school vouchers, abstinence only education and school prayer.  He opposes doctor assisted suicide, stem cell research, gay marriage and affirmative action.  Anotherwards he's a Green Party member in name only.
[ Parent ]
He's a Gino!

[ Parent ]
lol
Actually, considering he switched, he's now a DINO!

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Where did you read that?
Steve Carroll is a boiler worker who's "civic minded" employer lets him work nights while serving in the leg.  He got elected in a solidly Democratic district because the incumbent was marred by scandal and attempted to run again only to be forced off the ballot on a technicality.  But I've never heard that sort of critique on his issue positions.  

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Fascinating story actually...sex scandal and switcheroos!
Dwayne Dobbins, the former holder of that House seat, resigned in 2005 in a plea bargain that reduced a sexual assault charge against him from a felony to a misdemeanor after he fondled a 17 year old girl. His wife, Sharon Dobbins, won a special election for the seat. She was expected to run for reelection last year but Dwayne filed instead - an hour and a half before the filing period ended.

It was too late for the Democratic party to get someone else into the primary. But for some reason the filing deadline is later for the Green Party so a boilermaker and political unknown named Richard Carroll decided to run as a Green. Meanwhile, the Democratic Party of Arkansas was furious that Dobbins filed so they adopted a rule change that denied him certification and effectively removed him from the ballot. Dobbins sued to get back on the ballot (and probably had a good case) but the Arkansas Supreme Court dismissed the suit because he waited until less than a month before the general election to file. Carroll then won against two write-in candidates because he was the only name on the ballot.

After he took office, Carroll caucused with the Dems but declined an offer to join the party. He is likely changing now in an effort to dissuade another Democrat from challenging him in 2010. However, well known black community leader and term-limited State Senator Tracy Steele may run for the House seat and would be the favorite over Carroll (who is white) in the majority-black district.

Moral of the story - he's not a liberal and only ran as a Green to get elected. But I'm sure party switching for political ambition is only an Arkansas phenomenon and would never happen in, say, Connecticut or Pennsylvania.  

[ Parent ]
Tips for that last line.
[ Parent ]
Yes!
That was hilarious.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Goes to show the irrelevance of the Greens
The only way they can get someone elected is when an opportunist comes by like this (who uses them and then promptly leaves them).
[ Parent ]
Bob Kelleher, John Driscoll, Bob Conley?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
A Green actually took 20.5% of the vote in last year's Senate race
The Greens managed to find an opponent for Mark Pryor but Republcians did not.  That's probably the best performance a Green candidate has had in this country statewide in ages.  Though it's probably a protest vote.  I would have voted for the Green candidate in that race too as a protest vote.

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ra...

(I) Sen. Mark Pryor      Rebekah Kennedy
      Democratic             Green
    804,678 (79.53%)    207,076 (20.47%)

[ Parent ]
Had a GOP candidate been running
I imagine the Green would have taken a good deal less.
[ Parent ]
yes, 90% was probably that
group of voters that will never ever vote for a Democrat.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Kennedy's best totals were
in counties that Mike Beebe lost or nearly lost in 2006 in his race for Gov.  (Beebe won by 15%).
[ Parent ]
yes, that's what I mean
Counties like Benton that usually try to give a paper bag at least 60% if it was running under the Republican party label.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
There is certainly good reason to believe that
Kennedy's votes came from Repubs.

I did that in 2002 and 2004, when my Congressman was unopposed by Dems.  I voted for a crazy Constitution Party guy and Libertarian rather than vote for a Repub.  

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen 2006 too
Republican Richard Lugar (incumbent) 1,171,553 87.4%
Libertarian Steve Osborn 168,820 12.6%
Independent Mark Pool (write in) 444 0.0%
Independent John H. Baldwin (write in) 294 0.0%

Though not as impressive as Rebekah Kennedy's 20.5%.

And I might have voted for her too, though more for the lulz.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Lol, come to think of it, I didn't even vote in the senate race last year.
Far be it from me to either waste my vote on a green or go to my grave with voting for Mark Pryor to account for in heaven.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
CA-32
I live in the district in the LA part.

I got four positive mailers from four different candidates on Monday.

A flurry of attack mailers followed on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Dr. Chu sent out another positive mailer that arrived yesterday.

Which Chu?
No, seriously, which one?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Judy! n/t

[ Parent ]
Sestak
A belligerant Sestak is probably good for us overall. If he can cozy up to labor, he would be a non-insignificant challenge for Specter in the primary, the kind that, if Specter's history is any indication, would force him to move to the left. From there, our choices are either a left-leaning Specter or Joe Sestak, and either one I can live with. So I like this, in terms of feet-to-the-fire.
I'm not sure what to make of Sestak
I like his positions on the issues, but he strikes me as a loose cannon.  Doesn't he have the highest staff turnover rate of any Congressman?  He sounds the type who could be another Tim Mahoney behind the scenes.
[ Parent ]
He's ex navy. What do you expect from a former vice(?) admiral.
He makes his staff work seven days a week and from what I've read expects A+ work.

That said, I read over his profile at ontheissues.org (yeah, I know, that site sucks) but he actually comes off as pretty progressive in his voting record.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Sestak
Even with his background, he shouldnt expect his own workers to work 7 days a week (especially if he likes to say hes so pro-labor). Congress isnt the military. Its not fair to expect Congress to protect workers rights while you dont protect your own workers' rights. Itd be like a businessman running as a pro-labor candidate and yet doesnt even give his own workers health insurance.  
[ Parent ]
Right now I'd anyday prefer
a hypocrite who is pro-labor as opposed to a Repub who treats his workers well but is anti-union.
[ Parent ]
When being a staffer requires strenuous manual labor I'll share your sentiment.
Far be it from me to bitch about the one congressman that sets a standard for excellent work when most of them went kicking and screaming to a five day work week.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Staffers in many politicans' offices
work seven days a week. I've experienced it myself. I went five weeks without a day off, it's ridiculous.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
Staff turnover
If Sestak is turning over faster than Sheila Jackson Lee than he has some issues.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Staff turnover
He works them long hours.  But what does that have to do with anything political?
[ Parent ]
I've heard that
about Anthony Weiner, Carolyn Maloney, and a bunch of other people too.

I think it has to do with the hours political staff work. I worked for a NYS Assemblyman...didn't last long...when you work 110 hours a week, after a while, it just gets a little much.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Heard that too, sounds plausible
But understand he doesn't have to win for this to help us, he just has to put the fear of Democratic Primary voters into ol' Snarlin' Arlen.

Though if Arlen wins that race, I'm not sure what happens from there...his next term pretty much HAS to be his last one, right? Is he STILL gonna make all his moves based on politics then?

[ Parent ]
He makes it pretty clear
It depends on how Specter behaves so yeah either way it might be a good thing. I still maintain that Obama must have got some promises for such an ethusiastic endorsement.
[ Parent ]
Threat Yes, Run No
I like Sestak making noise about running.  He'd be a formidable primary opponent for Specter--probably about the strongest opponent Specter could face.  Specter like every other party switcher should move left regardless of any primary threat.  But, holdig his feet to the fire can only help ensure he moves left.  I'm skeptical about an actual primary contest however.  That's unnecessary money and effort spent fighting among ourselves instead of electing Democrats.  Specter would have to do something really bad like vote against Obama's SCOTUS nominee to make a primary fight both worthwhile and winnable.
[ Parent ]
It's Pennsylvania, not Kansas
If Specter doesn't support EFCA, he should be out of there. Pennsylvania is a heavily unionized state, and Sestak winning the primary could convince Obama to put some political capital into passing EFCA in the second half of his term. Specter also voted against mortgage cramdown, and is too corrupt and conservative to be elected as a democrat in Pennsylvania which voted for Obama by 10 points. Sestak can always drop out later, but a primary challenge will keep Arlen on his best behavior.
[ Parent ]
Run Sestak
Someone needs to take out that unprincipled hack Specter, and not let him represent the Democratic party.
With the Supremes in the News This Week
It's kind of funny (not really in a ha-ha way) to see Democrat after Democrat get behind the man who grilled Anita Hill and helped secure Justice Thomas's position on the Court.
[ Parent ]
no, it would make the party look terrible
this is like a national new orgasm for political advisors. its so positive. Plus Sestak's a loose cannon and he says he didn't get any establishment support last time which is just ridiculous.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Give Specter a few months
See if he's changed his tune.  If he thinks he can get all the benefits of caucusing iwth us while still maintaining his old voting record, well then I'll be on the Sestak bandwagon too.  If Specter has indeed shifted our way, then I see no reason to primary him.  I think the latter is likely given the history of other party-switchers.
[ Parent ]
EFCA and Judicial Appointments will be the biggest tests I can think of off the top of my head.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
No
Healthcare reform is.
[ Parent ]
EFCA is going to be difficult this session
for whatever reason, a few other Democrats have latched on to the media frenzy against it and we can't pass it in the current iteration...despite all those senators voting for the same bill last session.

We pick up a few more senators in 2010, then we might have the political will to pass it.

I agree, healthcare is going to be the blockbuster fight of this year, and if Specter isn't there for us, well then when is he going to start helping out?

His behavior on Obama's judicial appointments will also be hugely important.  Though I doubt he would have oppopsed any reasonable Obama appointment even as a Republican.  Him and Orrin Hatch have always been realists when it comes to that kind of thing.

[ Parent ]
Why is the Utah delegation surprisingly sane
and the Oklahoma delegation surprisingly insane?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
The Utah senators have respect for the process
Probably because they've been around a bit longer.  The Oklahoma ones illustrate the kind of post-1994 Republicans that the GOP has produced.
[ Parent ]
It always amuses me
That while 1994 produces a ton of toxic GOP'ers, it also produced Olympia Snowe in the Senate.
[ Parent ]
Snowe was around before that
Granted, she was elected to the Senate in 1994, but she had been serving in the House since 1978.
[ Parent ]
"The Oklahoma ones"
Heh.  "Those ones." :P

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Because everyone is a Repub in Utah
The Democratic Party is effectively non existent outside SLC, so even moderates are Republicans there.
[ Parent ]
It's the truth
I have several family members who are basically moderate democrats, but in Utah are registered republicans.  It's a big reason why the old school somewhat moderate republicans (by Utah standards) like Hatch, Bennett and Huntsman still hold most of the power in that state.  Though I think that will unfortunately change over the next decade or two as the more hyper-partisan youngsters gain the political power in Utah.  Chaffretz is a good example of that.
[ Parent ]
Yep
And the corollary is that the Oklahoma Democratic party is quite strong.  So, even if Oklahoma and Utah have relatively similar general electorates, the Oklahoma Republican primary electorate is much more conservative than the Utah Republican primary electorate.
[ Parent ]
Okay, EFCA, Health Care Reform, and Judicial Appointments
Happy? :p

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Sestak can't "Give Specter a few months"
If he does decide to challenge Specter, he would need to start right about now raising money and raising his profile. (He can always drop out later)
If Sestak waits a few months, he might as well not bother.

(Unless maybe Sestak's motive is to position himself for later on to replace Specter, since there's a responible chance Specter won't be able to serve out his full 6 years)

[ Parent ]
Sestak already has a good amount of money
But maybe a few months was too long.  But I still think Sestak could mount a solid challenge if he begins by the start of July, two months from now.  All he needs to do is to just keep quietly fundraising and making public statements like he has been doing.  Will probably help to keep Specter in line even if Sestak never does run.
[ Parent ]
He has plenty time
Jim Webb didn't get in until February 2006 for a June primary. And if Specter doesn't shift then raising money won't be a problem.
[ Parent ]
Why wait?
Specter voted against mortgage cramdown, and is fillibustering the nomination of Dawn Johnson to the OLC. If Sestak runs now, Specter will become a better democrat.  
[ Parent ]
Really, it's like any other
Dem, isn't it? We'd want a primary challenge for just about any other Senator that doesn't vote our way (as much as their state will let them, at least). Specter shouldn't get some special treatment.

However, I understand if this is based more on thinking that Specter's better than Sestak. I'd disagree, but I'd respect the opinion.

[ Parent ]
That's the way I look at it
If Specter does some stuff to warrant a primary challenge, then we focus on that.  If he doesn't, then we don't.

I guess it depends on what people feel is a reasonable reason to start putting money and effort towards a primary challenge.  By all accounts, Lieberman more than deserved it, with his long history of sucking up to Republicans, undermining us behind the scenes, voting against Democratic bills, and accusing us of all sorts of right-wing stereotypes for opposing the Iraq War.

What will it take for Specter to deserve a well-funded primary challenge?  Some people will say EFCA, in which case we ought to get working right away, but others are more flexible on that one.

To me, the biggest issue is the healthcare reform that is going to be the signature issue of Obama's first term.  If we can get a good bill through with Specter's help, then he would have proved himself.

[ Parent ]
I'd say health care is numero uno
All indications are he is on board there. And obviously he must vote for the SCOTUS nominee.
[ Parent ]
bigger fish
as I've always said...there are bigger fish to fry and better uses for the money.  

Arlen Specter was going to be a tough nut to crack if he somehow got by Toomey and he will be a tough nut to crack in the primary.  I am opposed to Sestak running against him because it'll put Sestak's seat in play and if he loses, he's out of the house and out of politics (atleast temporarily)

Even if Arlen isn't a great Democrat, which I don't expect him to be, I don't expect Landrieu or Nelson to be great Dems either.  

Had you asked me 2 weeks ago, I would have been all in favor of this race cause Toomey would have beaten Specter in the primary.  

Now, there is potentially 11 races more important than this one.  

Delaware   if Castle gets in
Missouri
NH
Florida   if Crist doesn't get in and heck, even if he does
Ohio
Colorado
Conn
Arizona   if McCain stumbles into conservative wasteland
Kentucky
Louisiana
North Carolina

those are in no particular order

PA is way down the list and its on don't waste my time territory.  Especially if you want people like Olympia Snowe to jump ship.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Do I hear the sound of Republican party officials
begging Snowe not to bolt?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I dont think she will
After reading her NYT op-ed, I didnt get a vibe more that she was staying to help keep their shit together.  But imagine if she left, I wonder what Collins would do because they're almost attached at the hip.  And if Snowe changed, I wonder how Mainers would perceive Collins then.  I mean, you'd assume they'd be like wha what about Collins now?  They'd be so different, she'd have to run on her voting record and not as the moderate duo of women from Maine.
[ Parent ]
crap
I edited that first sentence and flipped the negative and shit around and just didnt finish it.

Meant I didnt get a vibe that she was leaving but more that.....

[ Parent ]
That list is ridiculous
Sure I'd agree with NH, MO, KY, CT, CO, NC, and OH, but Specter is from Pennsylvania which voted for Obama by 10 points, not Louisiana or Nebraska where Obama got creamed. A Pennsylvania democrat supports a workers right to organize, and Specter has flip flopped on EFCA, in addition to voting against cramdown and the nomination of Dawn Johnson to OLC. We can't win in Louisiana, and even if we could it wouldn't change much since we'd get a democrat like Landrieu, I'll be happy if Vitter loses, but it's not gonna make a difference in the passing of new legislation. And Florida, Crist is unbeatable in a general election, and he wouldn't be so bad on environmental and immigration issues. In CO, we need to defeat Bennet who is a terrible candidate, and is very corrupt, I hope that Rumanoff(did I spell that right) challenges him so we can get a real democrat in there. I really don't think Castle runs for senate, he's way too old, and wouldn't stand a chance against Biden's son. In AZ, I think McCain will be pretty tough to beat, but who knows, he's become way too conservative for the state, but I think  he'll end up pulling this one out if only Napolitano could run.
[ Parent ]
Cramdown
11 other Dems voted against it so it isn't good evidence. Two votes aren't enough to make a reasonable judgment.
[ Parent ]
Carper Bennet and Specter
were the only blue state democrats to vote against cramdown. And the fact that 12 democrats voted against it makes it more crucial that we primary some of them. Cramdown isn't the most important issue, but when it's combined with no votes on EFCA and fillibustering Dawn Johnsen it's for a primary campaign. We've got more democrats now we need better democrats. Replacing Specter with Sestak would improve the democratic party a great deal. I'll have to see where Specter votes on public option healthcare, but he's certainly not off to a great start, and a primary challenge could keep him in line.
[ Parent ]
Specter is also now against public option healthcare
Furthermore,   look at this
Amount over career from the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Sector
Max Baucus (D-Mont.) $4,633,243 Thomas Carper (D-Del.)$2,160,628
Byron Dorgan (D-ND) $1,102,888 Tim Johnson (D-SD)$3,025,166 Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) $977,290 Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) $2,667,406 Mary Landrieu (D-La.) $2,388,634 Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) $1,322,948 Arlen Specter (D-Penn.) $5,757,910 Jon Tester (D-Mont.) $473,226 William Byrd (D-WV) $420,830 Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) At least $25,000*

Disgusting, and Baucus is the Finance committee chair.

[ Parent ]
I believe even the president doesn't support POH
At the very least he has said passage isn't viable right now.
[ Parent ]
Wrong
He supports it, in fact it's a major part of his platform. HHS secretary Kathleen Sebelius also supports it, so does HELP committee chairman Ted Kennedy, Ways and Means chairman Charles Rangel, and Energy and Commerce chair Henry Waxman, I think Pelosi supports it as well. Without a public option it is healthcare reform in name only, it will not bring down costs.

If the democrats don't pass it now, they will lose a lot of credibility with the American people. Look at what happened after Clinton's plan failed, we lost congress.

If 73% of Americans including majorities of independents and republicans support a public option, then it is very politically viable. It would give the democrats and Obama huge amounts of political capital and guarantee we'll gain seats in 2010.

[ Parent ]
Your thinking of single payer
Obama supporters a public option, what he doesn't support is complete public healthcare (i.e. no private insurance). There is no way that's viable right now...maybe not ever.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
That's the wrong attitude
I'll take the public option as a compromise, but polls have shown the majority of Americans support a single payer system. It will be an uphill battle because of the power of the insurance lobby, but I think if people push hard enough for it, and the dems continue to pick up seats in the 2010 and 2012 elections, then by 2013 we could have single payer.
[ Parent ]
Louisiana
I would imagine theres alot of support for EFCA in Louisiana. Although the support is probably much stronger amongst Cajuns and African Americans than, say, the white Protestants. This is the state, afterall, that produced Huey Long...so I bet its popular amongst much of the electorate.
[ Parent ]
Some Differences and Things to Consider
1.  If you want to encourage party switchers, then support them.  If you want to discorage any Republican office holders from switching parties, then the best way to do that is to primary them the first chance you get.

2.  Even if you think Sestak is marginally better than Specter, you might still think Specter is marginally more likely to win the general.  If Sestak loses the primary, does he weaken Specter to make him more vulnerable?  Does the potential benefit of a better senator outweigh the increased cost of a possibly losing the seat?  

3.  There's an opportunity cost with supporting a primary.  There's only so much time and money out there on the Democratic side.  Can it be better spent on another primary or general election contest?

For me, I generally wouldn't want a primary of an entrenched incumbent unless the new guy is not only better, but significantly better.  And the less his chances of winning the general, the better he needs to be on the issues.

[ Parent ]
Response`
1. I want to boot out Repubs, not encourage them to switch.  Even liberal ones like Lincoln Chafee are much more conservative than what we would likely get from a Democrat.

2. I don't think Pat Toomey could beat a donkey here in Pennsylvania.  Any half-baked Democrat would crush Toomey.  And I don't think Toomey would win a primary.

3. This is the only good point you make.  I'm very much against a primary of Kirsten Gillibrand, for example.

Specter is only useful if he casts votes for Obama's agenda in 2009 and 2010.  Things like health care with a public option, alternative energy, cap-n-trade, judges, and a compromise EFCA bill.  If he does not, then he should be primaried.  I support Specter tentatively, because I expect him to vote for these things at the end of the day.

[ Parent ]
Correction
2. I don't think Pat Toomey could beat a donkey here in Pennsylvania.  Any half-baked Democrat would crush Toomey.  And I don't think Toomey would lose a primary.
[ Parent ]
Specter has said that he supports President Obama's agenda
so I say it's fair to hold his feet to the fire.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Reply
1.  I care about getting results, not revenge.  If they're with me now, I don't care if they once were Republicans.

2.  I think Toomey is most likely to win the R primary even against an NRSC supported candidate like Gerlach, although far from 100%.  I also think Sestak would most likely beat Toomey (or Gerlach, even though the odds of this would be less than him beating Tomey), although also far from 100%.  I don't think of any of these electoral outcomes however as certainties.  I've seen way too many upsets and electoral mood swings to have the confidence you seem to have about what will happen a year and a half from now.  So, as long as you don't think the outcome is a certain victory for the Democrat no matter what happens, then you should be factoring electability into your calculations.  Not to say you should always support the more electable Democrat.  Sometimes, it's worth taking the chance that you lose the general to get the better Democrat.  But, I don't expect Sestak is going to be that much better than what Specter is going to be.  See http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...  All things considered, I see Specter as slightly more likely to win the general, although Sestak would likely win, and I see Sestak as likely to be a little better senator, but not by that much.  If Specter doesn't move left as I believe he will, then I happily concede it will be time to reconsider.

"I support Specter tentatively, because I expect him to vote for these things at the end of the day."

We may get there a little differently, but we actaully reach the same conclusion.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Look at it again come September and evaluate it then. I think Specter will surprise a few people. Sestak and others making noises in the meantime can't hurt.
[ Parent ]
Toomey has a zero chance
to win in PA.  He is less electable today than Rick Santorum is.
[ Parent ]
exactly
so why are we considering dumping millions of dollars in a Democratic primary in a state where if we leave Specter alone, we don't have to spend a dime Senatewise.  

There are multiple other races that will need our support and money in the senate, not to mention dozens of house races and several governor seats.  

Arlen Specter may not be the best Democrat in the world, but if you've got 65 senate seats (MO, NH, OH, KY, NC)it won't really matter.  Taking PA out of the equation for millions of dollars, is a huge boost to these other races.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Plus, Silvers did a thing on both Sestak's and Specter's voting record and Sestak isn't that progressive either.  He estimated based off some voting scale (I dont think Progressive Punch) that Specter is actually a little more liberal even.  But that all depends on whose measurement who you are using and so forth.

But I'd much rather have 65 and Specter than 63 with Sestak.

[ Parent ]
This is how we get in trouble
Case in point...Sestak runs, beats Specter, wins general election, casts first votes in the 111th Congress, Democrats are "disappointed"

"He's not better than Specter"
"I'm dissapointed and dissolutioned"

etc.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
If we
If we got rid of every unprinicpled hack, we'd be back in the minority.  I don't care so much what their motives are.  I mostly just want them to vote the right way.
[ Parent ]
Hear Hear
Thank you. We do have a number of Democrats (almost 50, in fact) who vote the right way 80% of the time. Could we replace a couple of them? Sure. Bennet in CO and Nelson in FL come to mind off the top of my head.

That being said, purity killed the GOP and it will do a lot to move the Democrats down the road toward the minority as well.

We need to do better, not perfectly. When the Netroots realize this (and I think a large portion of them, those who aren't "IHateBush" and David Sirota) we will continue to maintain our majority and continue to push a more progressive agenda.

Will we always be happy? No. Will we make far more progress than we would under Republicans. Fuck yes.

[ Parent ]
Agree 110% with that last line.
I switched from an R voter to a D voter because Republicans were becoming hostile to their moderates and liberals and were seeking "purity". I don't want the Dems to do the same.

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[ Parent ]
bingo
thats my whole point in a nutshell right there.  

Like it as not, the country as whole isn't as far to the left as most of us on here.  While the majority may be to the left of center, they are still very much to the right of many of us.  During their run, Republicans embraced these moderates, fed them a load of bull, and forces them into the rightwing escapades we're dealing with now.  

Bush blew it for them, no doubt about that, but the issue now isn't Bush, its groups like the CfG and hardcore religious groups that in their insistance that Bush wasn't conservative enough, that have begun to push moderates and even some to the right of center out of the Republican party.  They only other real choice is to go to the Democrats.  

These battles must be picked very carefully when it comes to primary challenges, especially when large amounts of money are to be spent.  While I agree that better Democrats is a goal, MORE Democrats is STILL a goal.  

It horrifies me to no end when I see someone suggest that we shouldn't go after someone like David Vitter because we'll "end up with someone like Landrieu"  This is exactly the kind of thinking that had landed the Republicans in the trouble they are in now.  


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[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 5/1 | 89 comments

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