Snowe/Bright vs Collins/Allen

While Allen is no Bright, to be sure, I think its unfair to count Collins approval rating in her home state as anything other than a massive advantage. While her 73% approval rating (SUSA, 11/06) is less than Snowe's 79% rating, let's not forget two things: 1) According to these polls, Snowe is the most popular Senator right now, and 2) Collins is the 5th most popular.

In any other state, even a strong credible challenger like Allen going up against the 5th-most popular Senator would be considered an uphill battle. But when you compare Collins to Snowe, you dishonestly create a status of Collins numbers being "relatively low"; that is, relative to the most popular Senator.

The race for the Maine Senate seat may be a competitive race, but on all accounts Collins starts off as the front-runner, and most of that is due to her sky-high approval ratings.

---

by: Va Blogger @ Tue May 08, 2007 at 18:09:50 PM UTC

"Dishonestly"?

Where did I say I was talking about favorability when I compared the two Senators?  Why couldn't I have been referring to other factors, like campaign ability (Snowe has the edge) or other vulnerabilities?

No one is saying this race is going to be a slam-dunk, but Collins continues to occupy dangerous ground on Iraq, despite her occassional lukewarm attempts at diverging from White House policy.  I sure would like to see Collins' approvals after the latest round of Americans United For Change attack ads, and her head-to-head numbers against Allen.

---

by: James L. @ Tue May 08, 2007 at 18:42:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Because in the blogosphere

A long and well-deserved reputation for fair-minded analysis earns you bupkes when it comes to receiving the benefit of the doubt. Everyone just has to jump all over everyone else.

Yeesh.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 02:09:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Collins won her last race against

Chellie Pingree by a 58-42 percent margin despite 2002 being a pro GOP year- Bush was popular post 9-11 and pre-Iraq War.

This Election Cycle Bush and republicans are unpopular due to the unpopular Iraq War. Tom Allen is a more formidable candidate than Chellie Pingree and Joe McKernan.

This can turn out to be a 50-50 race.

---

by: CMBurns @ Tue May 08, 2007 at 19:28:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Correction

Collins's first opponent was Joe Brennan (former Gov. and Congressman). You're mixing his name up with former Republican Governor (and idiot) John McKernan (who incidentally is Olympia's husband).

Otherwise, I agree with you--Tom is the best opponent Collins has ever faced; he'd make a great Senator. This is going to be fun.

---

by: BiddefordDem @ Tue May 08, 2007 at 20:56:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is Chucks recruitment success followed by

Udall of Colorado.

we just have to get the other UDall to run agains Pajama Pete. Target a top tier candidate against smith and Dole.

---

by: CMBurns @ Tue May 08, 2007 at 21:18:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MAINE electoral history lesson

Maine has un-elected popular incumbents in the past to send messages to Washington.  Margaret Chase Smith remained very popular when she was defeated for re-election by William Hathaway in 1972.

May Susan Collins experience the same fate.

"My name's Dr. Multimillionaire and I kicked your ass." -- Rep. Steve Kagen D-WI to Karl Rove

---

by: walja @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 00:09:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Chase Smith

This is true, Maine does have a habit of throwing out politicians that are popular for someone new. There was no real reason for Margaret Chase Smith to lose in 1972, besides the fact she was old and feeble, and Maine was still a Republican-leaning state back then. Also, Nixon won the state in a landslide that year, winning 61% of the vote.

Remember, Lincoln Chafee had a 60% approval rating when he was defeated last year. Maine is not as Democratic as Rhode Island, but it's trending that way.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

---

by: nrafter530 @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 00:16:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What's the PVI for ME-01?

I know the district has been trending Democratic for some time, but is there any chance that ME-01 could tip GOP after Allen retires?  Any popular Republicans in southern Maine that could prove to be a real nightmare for us?

---

by: Mark @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 01:00:36 AM UTC

Nice to see your, Mark

Feels like you haven't been around in a while. Anyhow, ME-01 is D+6.2. It went for Kerry 55-43, after going for Gore 50-43. So, a positive trend, but I'll be that Nader got a bunch in 2000.

I think this race could conceivably be competitive, but the GOP only has one seat bluer (Castle). If Iraq is still a big issue in 2008 (and it sure is looking that way), I think the Republican will have a hard time.

Weirdly, though, ME-02's Mike Michaud voted against the supplemental, almost certainly from a Blue Dog angle. I can't imagine that's playing well, even in the somewhat more conservative 2nd district. Anyone know more on this?

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 02:13:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Michaud's vote on the Supplemental

This wasn't a Blue Dog vote. From Michaud's statement following the vote:

On H.R. 1591 - Iraq Supplemental

March 23, 2007

Today, I find my conscience torn between a vote to fund the further 
occupation of Iraq, which I oppose, and the establishment of a firm 
deadline to bring our men and women home, which I strongly support. 
This is the hardest vote that I have ever cast in Congress.

I have repeatedly stated that I will not vote for further funding for 
this war unless it leads to a significant change in strategy that 
includes the end of our operations in Iraq.  Because of this 
conviction, I would have preferred that the Lee Amendment had been 
allowed to go forward, which would have established a withdrawal 
deadline within this year.  It would have received my support, but 
this option was not opened to a vote.

I do support the attempt by House Leadership in this bill to reign in 
the Administration's unending and poorly planned occupation, and I 
commend them for putting many positive features into this bill. This 
bill was a step in the right direction, and I can understand why many 
would choose to support it.  But at the end of the day, it did not go 
far enough to change our approach in Iraq to receive my support. I 
could not in good conscience vote for this additional funding without 
that fundamental change.

The fact is, this bill still keeps our troops in Iraq without 
changing the tactics and tools that we are using there.  It continues 
to rely on military means to solve a political problem. It creates 
benchmarks for progress in Iraq that could trigger an early 
withdrawal - which is a very positive step - but allows the President 
alone to certify that they are being met.  The Administration's track 
record of using interpretive signing statements, circumventing the 
law, and misleading the American public on many matters relating to 
Iraq should lead every American to question whether the White House 
can be trusted to truthfully evaluate the situation in Iraq.

The problems in Iraq will not be solved with US military strength 
alone.  We need a political solution, and unfortunately this funding 
bill does not fundamentally change our approach.  Therefore, with 
some reservation, I voted no.

The Administration has failed our soldiers.  The dedication and 
sacrifice of our men and women in uniform has been unsurpassed, but 
has not been met by the Administration with the planning, care, and 
foresight that honors their service and serves the interests of 
America and the Iraqi people.  The Administration has also repeatedly 
failed to propose the funding needed for returning veterans to ensure 
that they get the highest level of care. That is simply appalling.

I will continue to work to establish a new approach in Iraq, one that 
ensures a redeployment of our forces, the use of diplomacy to achieve 
a political solution, and the care and support that our soldiers have 
earned both when deployed abroad and when they return home.

---

by: DowneastDem @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 03:01:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Huh

I should have done some basic Googling before shooting my mouth off like that. Color me embarrassed. I still disagree with Michaud's vote, but I'd much rather see him vote against from the left rather than the right.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 14:17:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think any Republican could win ME-01

without a major 1994 style wave at their backs. 

---

by: Sean @ Thu May 10, 2007 at 06:29:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

and even in 1994...

Dems won in ME-02, which is the more Republican seat. It was in fact the only Repug seat that switched to the Dems that year.

33, living in Germany  

---

by: micha.1976 @ Thu May 10, 2007 at 12:00:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually, 1 of 3

The other seats were Santorum's House seat in Pittsburgh, where Jim Doyle still represents, and Rod Grams' seat in MN, which had undergone a second redistricting (it was drawn slightly more R in 92, more D in 94, and more R in 02--redistricting has basically been done by the courts in MN in the previous 2 rounds) and was won by Bill Luther.

---

by: corran horn @ Fri May 11, 2007 at 00:25:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also RI-01

Pat Kennedy won that seat when Ron Machtley left to run for governor.

---

by: Sean @ Fri May 11, 2007 at 20:05:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Allen

Even though Collins remains very popular in Maine and Snowe won by a larger margin in 2006 Maine voters will soon relize that Collins is way more Conservate than SNowe and it will be very likly that Allen will win the seat. As for the 1 District, I don't think any Republican could win there even if the run someone very popular. The most that person would get would probaly be 40%.

---

by: Edwards2008 @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 01:05:12 AM UTC

Collins vulnerability

The points made earlier about Collins's formidable popularity, but also that she isnt as popular as Snowe are both true. Though she is well-liked, I've heard from many in Maine that she's not quite as beloved as Snowe, kind of like a big sister/little sister thing.
At any rate, Collins starts the race as a favorite (though I havent seen any polling on this race recently) but she's in a dog fight. There was a popular GOP senator from a blue state last year who remained popular in defeat but just couldnt shed that "R"... and now Linc Chafee is out of office. So it can happen, especially against a credible challenger like Allen AND when Collins is obliging us with her Iraq votes. Should be a fun one to watch and a nice recruitment win for Chuck.

---

by: AC4508 @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 12:39:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, and...

Lincoln Chafee strongly opposed the war in Iraq, and was much more liberal than Snowe/Collins... the only reason why he lost was because of the R, there will be much more substance on Collins.

---

by: KainIIIC @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 15:54:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Way more conservative"?

Granted, in 2005, the National Journal's Vote Ratings called Olympia Snowe the center of the Senate in terms of ideology (Chafee and Nelson were slightly more liberal, Specter and McCain were slightly more conservative). But Collins is one of the ten most centrist Senators currently serving. People (unfairly) compare Collins to Snowe, in terms of both voting record and approval rating, despite the fact that Collins is only a hair under Snowe in both aspects, and is still head-and-shoulders above the rest of the Senate.

---

by: Va Blogger @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 14:51:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Collins' record "head-and-shoulders" above the rest of the Senate?

If Collins is to the right of Snowe, who is defined by the National Journal as the center of the Senate, how can Collins be "head-and-shoulders" above the rest of the Senate "in terms of both voting record and approval rating"?

Collins is about as far to the right as anyone who could get elected to statewide office in Maine.  Allen would be a huge improvement.

---

by: DCal @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 16:58:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Looking at Blue State Republican Senator up for Re-election in 2008

Collins represents the most bluest.
Maine is more bluer than New Hampshire(Sununu)
as well as Minnesota and Oregon.

Allen is a top tier challenger and Collins election numbers were

1996- OPEN SEAT 49-44 against Joe Brennan
2002- POST 9-11 Pre Iraq War 58-42 Chellie Pingree

Likely Democratic Pick ups
1)Colorado - OPEN Seat- Formidable Democratic Candidate plus Conservative Republican Candidate. State trending Blue.
Sherrod Brown vs Rick Santorum.
2)Maine- A strong Blue New england State formidable Democratic Challenger. - Female Lincoln Chaffee.

3)North Carolina- Weak Incumbent- Dole is a female Jesse Helms or Lauch Faircloth- Lackluster campaign performance.
Possible Democratic Pick ups
1)Minnesota- An Anti War- Anti Bush Progressive State. Coleman is a one term Senator who narrow won re-election in a pro GOP year. George Allen. while I don't expect a Macaca Moment from Coleman- Coleman can be arrogant or cocky like Allen.

2)New Mexico- The attorney firing scandal has diminished Domenici's popularity factoring old age and formidable Democratic challenger Madrid or Udall. This may move to a likely Democratic Pick up.

3)Oregon- Blue State- with a Green Ideolgy.

4)New Hampshire- Voters throw out the so called Moderate House Members from NH Bradley and Bass.

Other Races

Virginia- if it is an open seat

---

by: CMBurns @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 18:27:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope Allen

will build coalitions with the Greens and the Independents as soon as possible.  Early endorsements from leaders in those political circles will severely hamper Collins's reelection bid.  But I wonder if this will devolve into a northern Maine, southern Maine battle.  If it does, we have the demographics on our side.

---

by: pointecoupeedemocrat @ Wed May 09, 2007 at 20:52:14 PM UTC