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PA-Sen: Specter to Switch Parties, Run in the Democratic Primary

by: James L.

Tue Apr 28, 2009 at 12:06 PM EDT


I'm stunned... just stunned:

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter will switch his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat and announced today that he will run in 2010 as a Democrat, according to sources informed on the decision.

Specter's decision would give Democrats a 60 seat filibuster proof majority in the Senate assuming Democrat Al Franken is eventually sworn in as the next Senator from Minnesota. (Former Sen. Norm Coleman is appealing Franken's victory in the state Supreme Court.)

"I have decided to run for re-election in 2010 in the Democratic primary," said Specter in a statement. "I am ready, willing and anxious to take on all comers and have my candidacy for re-election determined in a general election."

"Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans."

I guess he realized that he could not possibly survive a GOP primary against arch-conservative ex-Rep. Pat Toomey. Still, I can't help but be shocked.

UPDATE: The Hotline has Specter's full statement.

LATER UPDATE: After receiving the "full support" of President Obama in a phone conversation, Specter told the President that he will be a "loyal Democrat" according to ABCNews:

Specter told the president, "I'm a loyal Democrat. I support your agenda."

Here's what I'm interested in seeing: official statements from Reps. Pat Murphy, Allyson Schwartz, and Joe Sestak on Specter's move. It's hard to imagine any one of them running against Specter in a primary, but I'm still curious to see if and when they make an endorsement.
James L. :: PA-Sen: Specter to Switch Parties, Run in the Democratic Primary
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PA-Sen: Specter to Switch Parties, Run in the Democratic Primary | 150 comments
*Falls over*
This is  . . . amazing.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
I am flabbergasted
But his chances of reelection just went from 0 to about 90%.

Here's my question: what will his committee assignments be? Pay Leahy should NOT stand aside.  

Pat Leahy
has more seniority anyway, he was elected in 1974.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately
He's probably a far surer bet to win the Democratic primary even if he's challenged. He's already said that he won't vote for cloture on EFCA, so I'm not sure if he plans on flipping that position  or just trying to win without labor.

I also imagine that the GOP field in Pennsylvania just got a whole lot bigger.

He's very likely to win the Democratic primary
Lots of Democrats are going to get on board really fast.
[ Parent ]
This Smacks of Political Opportunism
You're right, if he's not in line with core Democratic principles, then he needs to hit the road instead of doing this purely for self-interested (read: staying in office) reasons....
[ Parent ]
Well
Specter is probably one of the more conservative Dems now - I don't know that he's quite as conservative as Ben Nelson, but I think he has to run at least a little bit to the left to avoid a primary challenger.

Kos pointed out that this is now a huge save for the DSCC - they'll have to defend Specter, yeah, but as long as he proves popular with the Democratic base and Independents he can take care of himself, and he has a huge war chest that he can probably flatten Toomey with in the general.

TPM is reporting that President Obama told Specter that he has his "full support" now. Interesting.

[ Parent ]
Here is the one to remember...
...people gravitate towards the positions of their parties and everyone who has switched has become a lot more conservative when becoming a Republican and a lot more liberal when becoming a Democrat.

I'll use the example of Ben-Nighthorse Campbell who was far from being the most conservative Democrat but swiched mostly due to internal disagreements with the Colorado Democratic Party.  On paper he would've been the most liberal Republican in the Senate.  But once he switched he went to being pretty much in the center of the Republican Party.

While Specter may not re-change his vote on EFCA after being raked over the coals the first time for it being such blatant political opportunism I expect his votes on other issues will shift sharply left.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
I just wrote a diary at this
The same with Nathan Deal and Ricahrd Shelby. The EFCA thing is more about not looking like a complete hypocrite.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
In fairness to Specter his seniority is very important for PA.

[ Parent ]
EFCA
I fully expoect Specter to support some sort of EFCA compromise.  His statement said he couldn't support the part of EFCA giving workers the option to form a union by signing cards and foregoing a secret ballot.  He very much left open the door for supporting other parts of the bill.  The card check portion of EFCA is dead with or without Specter given other Dem defections.  Specter switching is EXCELLENT news for getting the rest of EFCA passed.  Specter will move left on EFCA and other issues.  He'll have the entire PA establishment support behind him.  Labor will back him as well.  He'll crush anyone who challenges him in the Dem primary and roll over Toomey.  The Club for Growth strikes again!!!
[ Parent ]
Again, to the Club for (Democratic) Growth...


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
man
Thanks Sara... Nelson always makes me laugh in situations like this!!!!
[ Parent ]
I'm actually finding
a lot of local Democrats and unions here in NYC jumped ship on EFCA because of card check.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
yup, it'd pass easily
card check is the only thing holding it back.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
He will be voting for cloture on EFCA
if it has enough votes to come to the floor.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly
And that's all we need him to do.
[ Parent ]
Oh. My. God.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
WOW

This is a joke, right?
I swear to god, I'm not convinced that this isn't an "April Fool's Month" prank.

If it IS true, it may not be good news. He still needs to swing his votes significantly to the left to be at all useful.

No longer toast
Way to go, Arlen.  You have revived your career and helped the Democrats in one fell swoop.
Studies all show that
party switches tend to move more in line with their new party - even more so then some life-long party members.

We won't get him on Employee Free Choice but give him time.

Specter will fit right into this pattern.
Many times, Specter voted the way he did due to pressure from the GOP leadership. He also had to protect against a conservative opponent in the GOP primary.  Neither of those are concerns going forward.
[ Parent ]
EFCA
He supported EFCA before.  He may not do a 180 and support all of EFCA, but he will definitely move to the left on it and will support some sort of EFCA compromise (which is the best we can hope for anyone given other Democratic defections on the issue).
[ Parent ]
I think he will
He'll do a complete 180 and support it 100% to shore up labor support, knowing the bill won't come up for a vote this Congress.  We are still short in EFCA votes.  I'll have to wait till 2011.
[ Parent ]
Definitely Possible
It seems a little too blatant and opportunistic to turn around a support EFCA 100% this year after what he said.  Besides, like you note, I don't think we have the votes to get all of EFCA passed this year even with Specter.  But, I think EFCA will come up for a vote this Congress.  There are stiffer penalty and binding arbitration provisions in EFCA that Labor wants in addition to the card check portion that business successfully mobilized opposition to.  Specter will almost certainly support some sort of EFCA compromise bill and I think it can pass.  Of course, even if Democrats get compromise bill passed this year, they may want to come back in 2011 for a stronger bill and by then Specter may be 100% on board.
[ Parent ]
Specter Statement of EFCA
This is from Specter's statement:

My change in party affiliation does not mean that I will be a party-line voter any more for the Democrats that I have been for the Republicans. Unlike Senator Jeffords' switch which changed party control, I will not be an automatic 60th vote for cloture. For example, my position on Employees Free Choice (Card Check) will not change.

I still think he's got some wiggle room to support a compromise bill as long as it doesn't contain card check and, truthfully, state that his position has not changed.  But, this seems pretty definitive that he's not switching on the card check part of the bill.

[ Parent ]
Ha!
As I recall his position changed from for to against already. This guy is such a wanker.

I have mixed feeling about this.

[ Parent ]
Dems need him for cloture
not to pass the bill.

He can easily claim that on procedural votes he was always inclined to support party leadership, but on the underlying bill he still had differences.

This allows him to sound consistent while giving Dems what they need. Except the Walmart Dems (Lincoln & Pryor) will probably help the GOP filibuster.

[ Parent ]
hahahaah
the funniest thing is reading all the conservative online comments that are like "GET OUT GET OUT YOU STUPID RINO." yeah thanks for the extra vote br0s
Wow
Expect Rendell to get Torsella to drop out. Specter will thrash Toomey or whoever in the general. I expect he will become a reasonably reliable caucus vote.
Completely Agree
Specter will have the entire PA political establishment behind him.  Last poll I saw showed him with very strong favorables among Democrats.  He should roll over any Democratic primary opposition.
[ Parent ]
Rendell promised his support if he did this
I doubt if any Democrat of any significance runs against him.
[ Parent ]
Over 70% of Dems in PA, according to recent polling

[ Parent ]
Same here
I'll bet Specter moves well left now and probably doesn't get a serious primary challenger.
[ Parent ]
(Spits Out Milk)
I KNEW this would happen! Just had a feeling!

Even still, I would rather run someone fresh than Snarlin' Arlen; the dude's like 200 years old.

Oh one other thing, Arlen gives Dems 59 votes in Senate. With Al Franken coming aboard sometime next month, hellooooo 60 votes!

Gonna be the first time Specter did not triple his ACU every 6th year
and I reckon the DSCC and Big Ed will dry up the money for any primary challengers...

But Specter was trying to appease the GOP base he alienated on the stimulus but opposing card check, so...

Will the unions demand he flip on card check if he is gonna get the national money?

If he doesn't, he could have trouble in a contested Pa Dem primary.

I doubt anybody who could beat him will run
Apparently Biden was one of the key negotiators so he wouldn't have switched without some assurances that the field would be cleared. EFCA isn't likely to come up for a vote before 2011 anyway with Ben Nelson and Blance Lincoln against and several others wavering. Specter will vote for it in some form later down the line I'm sure. He would look very silly to flip on it now. By 2011 there will likely be more than 60 Dems anyway so losing some over particular issues won't matter.  
[ Parent ]
Jesus H. Christ.
I just got a ton of stares in my school's student union... I whoa'd really, really loud. I also think Mr. Specter owes me a new pair of pants, as I seem to have shit mine. ha

On a serious note, party labels change people. I was once a Republican, after dropping the label, and eventually picking up the Democrat label, I have changed ideologies a great deal. I expect Specter to do the same. He will not become a Kennedy or anything like that, but he will become far more moderate, and probably, like he said in his statement, stay in line with the voters of Pennsylvania. Now if only we could give Collins and Snowe a little nudge in the right direction!

Remember, the Republican Party used to be the big tent party, now we are. We have to remember to be that big tent, welcome in people that we may not agree with on every issue, but make sure that everyone has a place in the Democratic Party.

Welcome to our 59th Democratic Senator. haha Sounds nice, as does Pennsylvania having an all blue Senatorial delegation!  

Another ex-Republican here!
When I first became politically aware in high school and early on in college, I was socially centrist and economically conservative. By the end of college I had drifted from conservative to center-left economically, centrist to solidly liberal socially, and from Republican to Democratic-leaning Independent.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Me Too
I pretty much always voted Republican even though I considered myself an independent.  Now, I despise the party and consider myself more an anti-Republican than a Democrat.  I've moved left on just about every issue in the last 8 years.
[ Parent ]
Me as well
I was a young Republican for Bush in 2000 (gosh, I'm sorry y'all. Seriously, my bad). Switched left on foreign policy in 2003 because of Rumsfeld's idiocy, moved left on social issues in 2004 when I realized I was gay, and moved left on economics in college when I worked with labor unions for the first time.
[ Parent ]
Don't worry.
All is forgiven.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I can brag
that I campaigned for Gore in my school at age 9. 4th grade. I was the only white kid i ran across to support Gore or to have actual reasons other than "TAX CUTS" as my reason for supporting a presidential candidate.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I was 17 and a high school senior at the time of the 2000 election.
I happened to be taking AP U.S. Government then and we had a mock election. I voted Gore, though I think the overall class result was Bush winning. We also talked a lot about the recounts though I don't remember the details. And 3.5 months later, I turned 18 and became eligible to vote.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Don't apologize
I'm glad Mr. 20% got elected.  If he hadn't we wouldn't have big majorities in Congress and likely no President Obama.
[ Parent ]
I'm half ex-Republican.
Actually, I don't think my mom was ever formally affiliated with the Republican Party.  So never mind maybe.  And it's sort of unrelated, but my parents still pride themselves on having voted for Lowell Weicker over Joe Lieberman.  Just felt like mentioning that.
[ Parent ]
Wow
I really thought in the end he'd just retire.  Kudos to Arlen for finally doing the right thing.  There are a good number of republicans in Congress who wouldn't be unemployed today had they just ditched that party.

I fully expect a flip flop on EFCA.  Though it still won't be enough to pass it this session of Congress.

Welcome Senator Specter
I for one am very glad to have him on board.

Republicans squeezed him too hard and now he's slipped out of their grasp completely.  They way overplayed their hand on this one.  What a party of idiots and incompetents.  Hope our party goes down the same path that the Rs have--it leads to a dead end.

Typo
Meant to write "Hope our party DOES NOT go down the same path that the Rs have--it leads to a dead end."  
[ Parent ]
gillibrand's example is the one i'm looking at
i would look for some symbolic votes soon.  rendell and casey have been begging for him to switch and if obama said he has his support well, there is no primary.  schwartz can play the maloney/mccarthy role here.  is torsella steve israel?

and on a list of seats most likely to switch does this go from 60% to 100%? or from 60% to 10% if toomey wins?

Wow! and yippee!

I have to give a little cedit to menendez - hodes, carnahan, fisher/brunner, conway/mongiardo, now specter, soon biden...he's already marginally ahead of schumer in my mind as a cold-blooded mofo who will stop at nothing to win.  that's what i like in a DSC chair:)

how does Obama stop a primary challenge?
Rendell and Casey can deny a challenger some institutional support, but the private sector unions are pretty free to do what they please. The public sector unions will do what the politicians tell them to an extent.
[ Parent ]
He's safe
It's not going to take any work.

No credible candidate was lining up to run anyway, as they all expected to face him in the general (and lose badly).  They will all pass now and hope to be the appointed successor if Specter doesn't make it to 2016.  

Remember, in 2004, against Specter Rep. Klink underperformed Sen. Kerry by almost 10%.  Arlen not only is popular around the state but is incredibly well connected to Philadelphia's black community at teh grass roots and leadership levels -- with this base of the base deserting, there's no hope to undercut him from the left in a primary.    

Murphy -- he's young and not suicidal.  
Sestak -- he's unusual enough for it to make sense, but he's a realist.  
Schwartz -- wasn't even moving to run before.  
Shapiro -- already dropped out.  
Saidel -- now firmly committed to Lt Gov.  
It's not like one of the gubernatorial candidates will drop out to primary Specter.  
Other -- c'mon.

Oh, yeah, Torsella.  His mentors are closer to Arlen than to him.  One might almost think this was long planned and Rendell put Torsella in the race to (i) hold the space open "just in case" and (ii) rack up almost a million dollars to bank for a future Congressional run....

[ Parent ]
Torsella
Interesting observation.  No way Torsella stays in.  But, if he's a good soldier, he'll be taken care of.
[ Parent ]
Sestak
I was watching MSNBC about an hour ago and Sestak seemed to be leaving that door right open, pointing out that he didn't get any institutional support when her first ran for the house, either.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Klink ran against
Santorum in 2000. Joe Hoeffel from Montgomery ran against Specter and did terribly in the Philly burbs.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Screw him
After his EFCA betrayal, I don't want him.  I hope someone takes him on in the primary.  And what's labor going to do?
Oh ye of little faith
And grasp of reality.
[ Parent ]
Labor will back Specter
This is politics.  Labor cares about their issues more than settling a grudge.  Specter cares more about getting elected than screwing Labor.  Specter will walk back his anti-EFCA position and Labor will back him.
[ Parent ]
Yup
When it actually comes up for a vote he will support by saying the economy has improved enough for him to do so. Just watch. The key portion of his statement is "I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans". New target for next year is 65.
[ Parent ]
Now that's possible
Of course when you're someone without any principles, like Specter, anything is possible.
[ Parent ]
It's politics
Not many politicians have any set principles.  Specter is on our team now and no longer a puppet of McConnell and Co.  As longer as he adjusts his positions to match the party I couldn't care less what his views were in the past.

A ton of Dems originally supported the Iraq War and then flip-flopped.  It happens all the time.

[ Parent ]
okay
As someone who HAS switched parties in his life, and who HAS changed positions on issues, I take great offense to this. Arlen Specter is mostly the same person that he always has been. Many Republicans around this country find themselves in the same position that Senator Specter and I have found ourselves in, being left behind by a party that moves further and further to the right.

Right now Democrats are winning independents, they have become the big tent party, the faster far lefters attempt to rid the party of moderates, including former Republicans, from the party, the faster they will find themselves in the minority again.

[ Parent ]
This is precisely why
some of the netroots are losing the little sway in the Democratic Party they had.

Over on OpenLeft, there's a call to push for more progressive Democrats even if it means losing the majority. Screams of the left wing Club for Growth.



Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Jumped the shark
Strategy? What strategy? Anything but sticking to safe Dem seat challenges (Wynn/Edwards at al) is a recipe for disaster.
[ Parent ]
Is anyone surprised
we have our own version of Club for Growth?

OpenLeft let their true colors shine concerning Scott Murphy. He won without them.  

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
That's hardly a capital crime
As I recall, they elected not to raise money for Scott Murphy on the basis that he said he'd join the Blue Dogs.

That didn't mean they didn't want him to win, it meant that they may the (fairly logical) conclusion that it would be a waste of limited resources to back somebody who would strengthen the opposite wing of the Democratic Party when Democrats look distinctly unlikely to lose the majority.

They did congratulate him, and I believe they also expressed pleasure that he wouldn't be joining the Blue Dogs. If you think that's equivalent to the Club for Growth, you're being silly.

[ Parent ]
Well, at least they're more sane.
than the Club for Democratic Growth.  (Yes, I'm joining in the chorus calling them that.)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
And he won without him
no, it's not a crime, it just makes them irrelevant.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens
[ Parent ]
You are arguing that they are both a Democratic version of the club for growth and irrelevant simultaneously.
That doesn't make sense. And if they are irrelevant why do you mention them every third thread?
[ Parent ]
Wasn't that the point?
They declared they didn't feel a need to intervene. Things carried on without them, just as expected.

"Small lefty blog takes no clear position: has no impact on the final result" is not exactly front-page news.

[ Parent ]
That's just bullshit
You keep coming out with this, and with very little evidence.

As far as I can see, the case boils down to this:

1) Nobody really likes Bright or Minnick at OL, and wouldn't spare a dime to see them saved from defeat for re-election.
2) Bowers attacked Massa, suggesting he'd be open to a primary challenge (but has since back-tracked on that one and praised Massa over net neutrality).
3) Bowers has called for a primary for Ron Kind, on the basis that he's in a fairly Democratic district and has been voting more conservatively than Bowers would like.
4) OpenLeft has backed primaries before, although not so far as I can recall in a district worse than D+2 (and that a heavily black district).

That's not a strong enough argument to support the contention that they'd throw away the majority over this.

Hell, when Stu Rothenberg is publically calling it lunacy to think that the GOP could regain the majority, it wouldn't be a problem anyway.

[ Parent ]
Just look a tthe comments
I know you say you shouldn't take comments as a definition to what a site is, but just look at what was said.

Someone said this was some grand Democratic conspiracy to prevent EFCA from passing because secretly the Democrats hate unions.


Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

[ Parent ]
Actually, it's a conspiracy between communists and fascists
in order to resurrect their fallen heroes Stalin and Hitler (yes, I'm Godwinning this mockery) in order to do battle with each other until the end of time.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Commenters are always stronger in their wording
It's more or less inevitable that commenters have less nuanced viewpoints, whereas front-pagers are more willing to make a deal. I'd also point out that there are a fair amount of commenters who take a decidedly more sanguine view of the Democratic Party's health.

Aside from which, there is a kernel of truth in the outlandish claim you mention. Certainly it would have been clear that Specter wasn't switching on EFCA. I think we can say that the Democratic Senate establishment varies from mildly supportive (Durbin) to outright hostile (Lincoln) to unions, with most falling into the space in between marked 'indifferent'.

[ Parent ]
that's the wrong attitude
we shouldn't be thinking, "okay, its safe to get rid of all these moderate dems" we shouldn't want a single minded party. that's scary.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
That's a gross misrepresentation
The argument I was refuting was that we should tolerate conservative Democrats because we need them for the majority. I wasn't saying all Democrats should be the same - they represent districts that are far too different from each other for that to work.

But trying to strengthen your particular faction of a party is not 'scary'. It's an essential element of party politics. You identify with a party because it represents your views better than its competitors, but that does not mean you do not wish to change it.

We can get rid of a fair amount of moderate Dems without endangering congressional majorities, but that's not the core reason for doing it. The core reason is that a lot of people feel that Dem congresspeople are too far to the right of the Democratic base. And if the base in individual districts want to primary their representatives, then that's democracy. It's not 'scary'.

[ Parent ]
indeed, you sound like a republican
any switch in political views is a flip flop. I've changed my views, I've gone from pro-life to pro-choice in the last four years due to compelling arguements that I had no answer to/

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
indeed, you sound like a republican
any switch in political views is a flip flop. I've changed my views, I've gone from pro-life to pro-choice in the last four years due to compelling arguements that I had no answer to/

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Jim Webb iss an example
Honestly, does anyone seriously believe his switch from Reagan republican to strong democrat came purely out of political calculation?  I sure don't.

Probably had a lot to do with a repub President sending his son to an unnecessary war.

[ Parent ]
Jim Webb was not a Reagan Republican
He was basically a Rush Limbaugh Republican in the 1990s who regularly railed against anti-war peaceniks, hippies, women in the military, Bill Clinton, etc, who refused to shake the hand of John Kerry for 30 years because he considered Kerry a traitor.

Read my comment in this diary:

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

[ Parent ]
Get a grip
EFCA ain't coming up for a vote this Congress because of certain Democrats representing Wal-Mart, not because of Specter.  When it finally does come up for a vote in 2011 Specter will be voting for it.
[ Parent ]
Good point about Walmart Dems
Is it just Lincoln and Pryor?
[ Parent ]
Ben Nelson is shaky on the issue
Though he's probably just trying to water it down a bit to get some bipartisan support.
[ Parent ]
I knew he wouldn't run as a Republican
But I thought he'd go the independent route.
I'd like to see a poll
General election poll estimate:
Specter (D) - 60-65%
Toomey (R) - 20-25%
Nah
Toomey in the high 30's. Still lots of conservative and very partisan Repubs in PA.
[ Parent ]
Specter is guaranteed solid support
from the Southeast. There is no way Toomey or any other Republican could beat him.
[ Parent ]
other states affected for 2012
Delaware-Specter's switch will probably discourage Castle from making a run for U.S. Senate.

Illinois-Kirk is now less likely to run for U.S. Senate, although Roskam could be the replacement candidate.

Texas-If the GOP doesn't have 41 votes, why wouldn't KayBay resign to run for governor?

Connecticut-If the GOP gives up in PA (and strong candidates don't emerge in DE and IL) this means resources can be shifted. Dodd seems to be the most vulnerable. If KayBay doesn't resign (which would shift the resources to Texas) then Specter's switch makes Dodd less likely to get elected.

Wisconsin-Possibly resources could be shifted to running against Feingold. Feingold may have to break a sweat, but he'll win.

New York-Gillebrand is probably more solid on the theory that moderate Republicans are sorta in the "why bother?" mode.

Could Specter switching encourage GOP Senators to retire? McCain (Arizona), Grassley (Iowa), Bunning (Kentucky) or Coburn (Oklahoma)?

There's already five Republican open seats and only one Dem open seat (although Dems will be defending in Colorado and Illinois incumbents who have no been elected as U.S. Senators).

Good Points
I think Bunning staying put is a good idea, the rest you mentioned can retire for all I care, especially McCain for one specific reason.

Janet Napolitano's current performance is rather poor. As a Canadian, I find her continuing assertion that the 9-11 terrorist came from Canada to be insulting, since for years the established fact was that that assertion was pure fantasy. Janet should return to Arizona to run for Senate, even if McCain doesn't retire.

On another note, Michael Steele finally said something completely correct.

[ Parent ]
Steele
In thanking the Club for Growth upthread, I forgot about Steele's contribution in pushing Specter out by hinting that he'd withhold RNC support from Specter for supporting the stimulus bill.  Way to go Mike!
[ Parent ]
Specter has a "left wing voting record"
The GOP is run by kooks.

Napolitano is not going back to Arizona to run for Senate in 2010, and probably not ever.

DHS is her tryout for VP on the 2012 ticket. Biden may go to Secretary of State if Obama prefers him to HRC.

Even asking Napolitano to run against Kyl in 2012 is hard to see. "Janet, I want you to give up your appointed gig (cushy, lots of responsibility) and go through the BS of running for office to be a junior U.S. Senator."

If I were her I'd tell Obama to nominate me to the DC appeals court and call us even.

[ Parent ]
what's it say about Mitch McConnell?
McConnell ain't keeping the members of his caucus happy.

More GOP retirements coming? A party switch by Snowe? Lugar?

Doubtful
Not when they aren't up until 2012. They could both call it quits then though.
[ Parent ]
Snowe and Collins
Snowe and Collins seem like the most ideologically compatible with Democrats.  But, there's zero electoral pressure on them to switch parties as they crushed Democrats in 2006 and 2008 respectively.  Same with Lugar; there's just no electoral threat to motivate him to switch parties.  It will take some real snubs from the Republican party to motivate any of them to switch.
[ Parent ]
Minority party
I know I wouldn't want to spend my last years in politics subserviant to a bunch of crazies I have little in common with and make up only 40% of Congress.
[ Parent ]
when your only influence is the filibuster
And much of the time they filibuster on causes Collins and Snowe know are bullshit.

It doesn't seem to be a good time to be a Senate Republican.

And the Dems should clearly articulate to Collins, Snowe and Lugar that the window of opportunity to switch closes if the Dems gain seats in 2010, which they probably will.

It's not hard to see a scenario where Dems control 63-67 seats after the 2010 elections.

[ Parent ]
Filibuster Not Only Influence
To assume that the filibuster/cloture vote is the only power Senate Republicans have left is to assume that Senate Democrats will always vote together. As we have seen, they may not. There are numerous Senate Democrats who are fairly conservative, or at least to the right of the caucus generally, and they won't necessarily take marching orders from Reid.

Putting all ideological considerations aside--and they may be considerable--Snowe and Collins could reasonably think they would have more influence as Republicans given that it still only takes one or two defecting Democrats to put their votes in play than it would to be one of 61 or 62 Dems when a defection or two wouldn't matter.

I think they're staying put.

[ Parent ]
Why republicans are in the minority
What a joke Michael Steele is.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITI...

Reid called Specter a "man of honor and integrity" who would be welcome in the Democratic caucus.
Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele ripped Specter, calling him a Republican in name only who was out of step with the rest of the party because of his "left-wing voting record.">blockquote>

He has that backward
Republicans are out of step with the majority of the country.
[ Parent ]
what does toomey do now i wonder?
will he stay in a race he can't win, or switch to the govs race?  if that happens would specter switch back?  obama better have told specter that if he tries to switch back there will be hell to pay.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
He would look ridiculous
And very beatable to a decent Dem. But very unlikely either way.
[ Parent ]
Toomey Couldn't Win Before
Toomey wasn't going to win the general election anyway--not even close--so why would he change races now?

Specter could have a race on his hands if Toomey did drop out and the party put up a moderate. But the Republican Party has become so much more conservative that such an outcome may be unlikely.

[ Parent ]
Some Political Advantages...
One, money. We probably don't need to spend anything in PA now.

Two, message. Republicans were going to get some mileage out of "Don't give Dems 60!" But by 2010, they'll already HAVE 60 (maybe by only a couple of months, but whatever). If the sky hasn't fallen, the argument that Dems can't have control will fall on deaf ears.

So there are some benefits here.

good point on how the switch undercuts GOP message
That message is being drummed hard with GOP donors.

But how many of the GOP donors are ideologically closer to Specter than they are to the Southern base of the party?

[ Parent ]
I thought Arlen would eventually switch
I posted before that there was a decent chance that Arlen would join the Democratic party.  I think he is/was in an impossible situation in PA.  The Democrats should try and reach out to other moderate-minded Republicans in the House and Senate (all 9 of them).  Plant some seeds...it probably won't hurt.



40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Later update
"NBC News says Democrats promised Specter would face no Democratic challenger but that he was promised no committee chairmanship in return for switching parties."

Via Taegan.

I think he'll get a pass
Even Torsella will back out.  It seemedl ike Dems didn't even want to run when Arlen was running on the other side.
[ Parent ]
I think I'll take that deal
Hell, I'd even take ripping Lieberman's gavel from his cold, dead fingers and handing it to Specter.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Committees
I listened to the Specter press conference and he was asked about committees.  He said that he and Reid agreed that it would be fair to treat him as a Democrat for seniority purposes dating back to when he was first elected in 1980.  He didn't directly answer a question about committees, but did state that Leahy was elected in 1974 so he would be behind Leahy on the Judiciary committee.  Also mentioned something about I believe Harkin being elected in 1980 something so that he would be senior to him.  Not sure which committee he was referring to.
[ Parent ]
The Approp subcommittee on Labor, Health and Education
which Harkin chairs is the other committee that was referred to in the press conference.
[ Parent ]
15 seats
Dems have now gained 15 Senate seats since 2006.  Amazing, and may break 20 in 2010.
I know self-preservation was at least 75% of the reason for this, but...
...it's still funny as hell to watch the Republicans become more and more irrelevent.

I wonder if Snowe will follow suit.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Snowe's comments today sure sound like she's fed up too
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

Sen. Olympia Snowe - one of the three moderate Republicans including Arlen Specter who supported President Obama's stimulus package - told CNN Tuesday that she has also been approached many times about becoming a Democrat, but that it hasn't happened for a while.

"I've been asked, but not recently," she said.

Snowe said the Republican Party never learned its lesson from the "painful" party switch of Sen. Jim Jeffords in 2001.

"For me personally and then for the party, its devastating," Snowe said of Specter's move. "I've always been concerned about the Republican party nationally, about their exclusionary policies towards moderate Republicans. That's not a secretly held view on my part."


[ Parent ]
I wonder how Snowe feels about Steele's comments
If Specter has a "left wing" voting record, is Snowe a pinko Communist?  Seriously, what the hell kind of statement is that?  

Michael Steele is an absolute idiot.  Instead of playing the defection down, he should be kissing Snowe's butt and try to salvage her relationship with the GOP.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Snowe
If anyone switches I think it will be Snowe.  She's further left than Collins.  But, she's always seemed dedicated to bringing back the moderate wing of the Republican party.  Without any electoral reason to change, I suspect she'd only switch if she were pushed by the Republican Party like they did to Jeffords.  Reportedly the final straw for him was when some Vermonter was being honored by the White House and Rove made sure Jeffords was not invited to attend the ceremony.
[ Parent ]
Looking forward to the primary
I don't think Specter could be beaten in the Democratic primary, and I don't think he should be, as the blowback from that would likely be disastrous.

Nevertheless, as much as he's likely to move left, he'll still be worse than our current candidates or the candidates we could have had. That means he needs to be pressurised.

An outsider primary campaign with perhaps a little union support but little else, hitting Specter on issue positions (particularly his EFCA flip-flop), would be a key element in keeping him in line and encouraging him to make 2010 his last election.

Specter Press Conference
Some highlights:

1.  He really rips the Club for Growth by name.  Mentioned Chaffee, Gilchrist, Schwartz, and Heather Wilson as good Republicans who were forced out by CfG and rightwingers who want to "purify" the party.

2.  Said he made calculation that it was no longer realistic to fight for the moderate wing of the Republican party in Pennsylvania.

3.  Said he will be treated for seniority purposes and committees since he was elected to Senate in 1980.  

4.  On specific issues, it doesn't sound like he's changing positions too much.  Said would still oppose Dawn Johnson to head OLC, still oppose use of reconciliation to pass health care, etc.  We'll see.

He would look foolish if he suddenly changed across the board
That isn't the point being made. The more the merrier I say. Big tent and all.
[ Parent ]
Oh, I agree
He can't publicly flip flop on everything on day 1.  I'm hopeful he'll be able to moderate his opposition to some of Obama's policies and nominations however.  At a minimum, don't be an obstructionist to everything.  I'm confident he won't and think this is a very good thing for the party.
[ Parent ]
Quite frankly
I wish he'd stayed in the Repub primary and lost to Toomey.  Let's face it, we'd have gotten a real Dem in 2010.
Proof will be in the pudding
Can't make any judgment until we see what he votes for between now and then. And then there are at least five other top-tier Repub targets.
[ Parent ]
Just hit me...
Wasn't Specter the last Jewish Senator the republicans had?  Once Coleman is officially gone that is...
Eric Cantor (eom)

[ Parent ]
Though he's in the House.
Now that Specter's out of the party, Cantor's the lone Republican Jew in the entire Congress.

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
They can take Lieberman
If they want to continue to pretend that they're party is diverse.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Oh... good point
Heh, I read the OP too quickly.
[ Parent ]
HOLY SHIT
HOLY SHIT
HOLY SHIT
HOLY SHIT
HOLY SHIT
HOLY SHIT
HOLY SHIT

Okay, enough from me.

But, hey Cornyn, how does it feel to try to keep the Democrats from getting to 60 when they will already have 60 before the 2010 cycle?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

To be fair
He is on the record as saying 60 was likely to happen.
[ Parent ]
Who's next?
Snowe?  Collins?  Graham?  McCain?  Murkowski?  Lugar?  Hatch?

Looks like the Republicans are finally paying in spades for their electoral and policy-controlling success in 2000-2004.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Snowe, maybe Collins
I really don't see any of the others going anywhere.  Certainly not Hatch.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Haha, me neither, to be honest.
It was more fun to list them than to actually speculate, to be honest.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
It's not a very long list anymore

[ Parent ]
The list of office holders isn't very long anymore ...
... but there is still a list of millions of moderate and moderately conservative voters this increasingly wack-job party is going to lose -- and that's the most important part!
[ Parent ]
My humble Opinion
Snowe:  I could see her switch to Independent.  Maine would support her as an Independent.  I think she would rather reform the GOP party, but she's probably seen the handwriting on the wall that this won't happen.  

Collins:  I don't see her defecting unless the GOP starts hounding her in the press.  If Snowe leaves the party, she may be on an island by herself.

Graham:  I don't see that happening at all.  He's fairly conservative with some maverick streaks, but he wouldn't be a good fit.

McCain:  see Graham remarks.  He will not leave.

Murkowski:  She's fairly moderate, but I don't believe Alaska would forgive her for defecting.  If she changed parties, she wouldn't run for re-election.

Lugar:  He's a true conservative.  I like Lugar as a person of character, and he doesn't spout out a bunch of rhetoric, but I don't see it happen.

Hatch:  See Murkowski remarks.  However, he's a little more right of Murkowski.

Voinovich:  He's a lame duck.  He's just waiting his time to retire.  He won't piss anyone off and leave.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Only possibility is Snowe
Voinovich may have considered it if he were not retiring.  But I doubt he'll bother switching since he's only there one more year.
[ Parent ]
It's pretty damn funny
that we are even discussing the remote possiblity of senators from Utah and Alaska changing parties.

The GOP has really got itself into a corner.  They lost NY-20 in the famous "come from ahead loss", and now they lost Snarlin Arlen.  They should cut out the stupid piss and moan rhetoric and try their best to make some concessions with Snowe and Collins.  I think the chances of Snowe leaving is less than 25%, but if the McConnells and the Steeles keep making dumb sound bytes, nothing is for sure.  What we have seen is the splintering of the GOP.  It's better than watching a movie.


40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Honestly
I'm surprised that since 2005 when the republican slide really started not a single House member switched parties.  People like Shays, Boehlert, Leach and Gilchrest chose defeat or retirement instead.  
[ Parent ]
Wasn't enough time for it to set in
Party affiliations do take a while to change, depending on how tradition-rooted or opportunistic the person is.  It's like you're leaving a team of allies; most people don't just jump ship immediately, but only after the reality of a major unresolvable dispute really sets in.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
True
And in Leach's case he didn't know what hit him.  Leach losing on election night 2006 ranked right up there with Shea-Porter's win in NH-01 and Hall in NY-19.
[ Parent ]
I'm not too surprised
The GOP destroyed Forbes in NY when he bolted in 2000.  I think that the older, more moderate members of the GOP realized that it was easier to bring in money as a Republican than it was as a Democrat.

It's funny how Leach and Gilchrest supported Democratic candidates in 2008.

That being said, I don't see any chance at all of us picking up a GOP house seat unless Cao actually wakes up and discovers that his chances of being re-elected goes from 0% to 10%.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
I think the former AZ-08 rep also did in 2006
Forget his name.  He retired in 2006 and I'm almost positive he endorsed Giffords because he hated the repub nominee Graf.
[ Parent ]
Jim Kolbe


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
When does the change take place
There were a few roll call votes taken.  Specter is still listed as a Republican there.  He's also still listed as a Republican on the Senate website (under the list of Senators) and isn't listed as a member at the Democratic Caucus's website.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
McConnell calls Specter action "threat to the nation"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30...

Not long after Specter met privately with Republican senators to explain his decision, the party's leader, Sen. Mitch McConnell, said the switch posed a "threat to the country."

The issue, he said, "really relates to ... whether or not in the United States of America our people want the majority party to have whatever it wants, without restraint, without a check or balance."


He should look in the mirror
and see the true threat to the United States.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Just imagine the crazy things that could happen without a republican filibuster!
Universal healthcare?  EFCA?  Environmental regulations?  Tax cuts for the middle class?  It would be absolute disaster!
[ Parent ]
Major disaster on hand
I bet that we will see a bunch of non-conservative judges appointed...what is the world coming to?

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
WHOAH!!!
I was simply STUNNED when I saw this. I had just come back to law school from lunch, and in my university (U of Toledo), we have some big flatscreen TVs in the library right where the elevators are. I was going to do some more studying for my Con Law final when I saw this. I stood staring speechlessly at the TV screen, and a few other passers-by were also taken by surprised.

BTW, I took my Con Law final  and, despite being taken aback by this news, I was still able to focus and confident that I did really well on it.

Congratulations!
On your con law final, not your catching the news on TV, of course.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
PA-Sen: Specter to Switch Parties, Run in the Democratic Primary | 150 comments

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