Google Ads


Site Stats

CO-Gov: Ritter in Trouble?

by: DavidNYC

Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 3:21 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (PDF) (4/17-19, "Colorado voters," no trendlines):

Bill Ritter (D-inc): 41
Scott McInnis (R): 48
Undecided: 11

Bill Ritter (D-inc): 42
Josh Penry (R): 40
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±3%)

These numbers are pretty disturbing at first glance - incumbent Dem Bill Ritter is well under 50 and trails former Rep. Scott McInnis by a substantial margin, and barely beats Colorado state Senate Minority Leader Josh Penry. What gives? PPP doesn't offer much in the way of explanation, just noting that Ritter's approvals have dropped over their last three polls. He also didn't fare so hot when PPP paired him up against some other names back in January (PDF) - just 46-40 over former (and 2006 opponent) Rep. Bob Beauprez.

PPP seemed to have a weirdly low approval rating for Obama in this poll, just 49-45. By way of comparison, PPP recently had Obama at 47-45 in Arkansas and 46-45 in Kentucky, while showing him at 54-38 in North Carolina. So it's easy to see why the CO numbers just feel off. Apart from PPP (which is testing this particular matchup for the first time), I'm not aware of anyone even polling this race yet. We'll have a better sense, of course, whenever they (or another firm) release a new survey.

DavidNYC :: CO-Gov: Ritter in Trouble?
Tags: , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
The most damning thing about their CO poll
was that Obama was so low. My suspicion is that there was something wrong with the poll.

It happens to the best pollsters.


Maybe
CO is starting to have buyers remorse from their last couple of elections.

A cat can have kittens in an oven but that doesn't make them biscuits.

Possible
But in the spirit of Jim Tedisco one poll does not make a dance floor.

[ Parent ]
Ya
I bet they're all broken up about not no longer having a great President like Dubya and passing on Coors, Beauprez and Schaffer.  Whatever ya say...

[ Parent ]
Only two things I can think of.
Either PPP is just way off base with their polling, which is a posibility, or Ritter's rocky relations with labor and the appointment of Bennet have taken a toll.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

Didn't he unionize all public employees?
What has he done to piss off labor so much?

[ Parent ]
Don't remember precisely
but there was a bill he vetoed that labor was pushing hard for and Bennet's dancing around EFCA might have amplified the perception that he's anti-union.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Okay
PPP is having some trouble apparently, I would have bought a close race, but there is no way McInnis is polling that far ahead of Ritter.

I doubt Obama's favorables mirror
a state that he won by 9 points compared to two states he lost by 16 (Kentucky) and 20 points (Arkansas).  PPP is usually decent but I think it's fair to call this an odd-ball.  95% confidence.  Partisan breakdown looks relatively close, there must be something else skewing the results.  


Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox