I disagree with a lot of these.

Senate: I'd call NY-B and WI likely D, if not Safe D.  I'd call IL leans D.  I'd call GA, SC, and SD safe R.
Governor: I'd call PA leans D, OK tossup, GA leans R, AK and ID safe R, MA likely D.

Did they release house ratings yet?

16, Male, MI-01

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by: Menhen @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 23:21:39 PM UTC

SD-Gov

All depends on Herseth-Sandlin.  If she runs it's probably Leans D, if she doesn't it's Likely R.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 23:33:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I would change SD-Sen to safe R

SD gov is fine where it is.

16, Male, MI-01

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by: Menhen @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 23:36:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree with you on Oklahoma too

Everyone seems to be overestimating republican strength in that state for statewide races.  While it went overwhelmingly for McCain and Inhofe it still goes Democratic in most other state races.  

It's a tossup at worst.  Maybe even a slight Dem edge if Edmondson runs.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 23:43:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oklahoma has zero

statewide Republicans except for three GOP Corporation Commissioners.

The Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Auditor and Inspector, Treasurer, Superintendent of Public Instruction, Commissioner of Labor, and Commissioner of Insurance are all Democrats. Every one of them.

So while we are weak on the federal level, we are fairly strong in other ways.

I think Jari Askins or Drew Edmondson both have a good shot, and it Askins is the nominee then she will eliminate Fallin's gender advantage.

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by: possumtracker1991 @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 00:03:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So:

Does anybody here think Herseth Sandlin will run for SD governor?

To be honest my instinct tells me that she's going to go for it. I'm sure she would like to come home and raise her new son in more familiar surroundings.

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by: jsrosa @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 00:19:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Eh, she doesn't sound too enthused

From late March:

Herseth Sandlin conceded it would be tough, though not impossible, to knock off Thune. And while the governor's seat would be open, she pointed out that the state has elected only four Democrats to that office, among them her grandfather Ralph Herseth.

Given that, a run for re-election sounds very possible.

"I feel strongly that South Dakota's at-large (House) seat becomes more influential the more seniority you have on your committees, and I think that the committees on which I serve are very beneficial to my constituents," said Herseth Sandlin, who serves on the Agriculture, Veterans' Affairs and Natural Resources panels. "I don't want to disregard what the five years I have under my belt could mean for South Dakota."

Besides, she said, "A lot of the issues that we're grappling with - health care reform and energy policy - are not going to all be resolved by 2010."

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by: James L. @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 00:33:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope not

We'll have a hard time holding SD-AL if it was an open seat.  And to be honest I don't care all that much about the SD Governorship since congressional redistricting is irrelevane in an at-large state.  I'd rather she just stick to the house seat until Johnson retires (probably in 2014) from the Senate.

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 01:30:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But . . .

Which place is a better launching pad for the Senate--Representative or Governor?  Obviously, being the representative for the entire state makes this a different question for SD than for most states.  Still, I'd think the governor gets a lot more media and is better positioned for a later Senate run than a Rep.  I view House seats as so much less important than Senate seats that I'd be happy to give one up in exchange for a significantly better chance at a Senate seat.  

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by: sicembears @ Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 15:21:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd say they are equal launching pads in an AL state

Herseth-Sandlin is on the ballot every 2 years right now.  That's as much publicity as her being Governor and being on the ballot every 4 years would be.

Though one aspect about this situation that we might have to look at is appointments.  Senator Johnson is not in the greatest situation health-wise.  If the worst happened we would need a Democrat holding the Governor's mansion to keep the seat in our hands.  Herseth-Sandlin as Gov would guarantee that.  Again, I don't like looking at things from that angle, but we may have to face that situation in the next 5 years.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 16:32:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Is Johnson's health really in danger?

I thought that once he recovered from the hemorrhage he should be otherwise healthy?

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 20:22:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He's had other health issues

He's also had prostate cancer, and I think some other health issues -- so while he seems to have fully recovered from all of these, he'll be in his late-60s the next time he's up, and I would probably expect him to retire.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Sat Apr 25, 2009 at 15:46:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wisconsin bothers me

Doyle seems intent on running for a 3rd term and his approvals are pathetic.  Wisconsin isn't overwhelmingly Democratic and with approvals in the low 30's we could definately lose this one with Doyle.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jim Doyle is doing as Governor?
3/27/09

Approve 32%
Disapprove 63%

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 00:01:03 AM UTC

How did that happen?

You gotta screw up really badly to get numbers like that.

Those numbers are almost as bad as David Paterson's, although to Paterson's credit, he probably didn't think he'd be governor in 2007.

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by: possumtracker1991 @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 00:05:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If you look more deeply, though,

Some of that disapproval is from people who don't think Doyle is progressive enough.  Most of them will probably come back around and vote for him unless there's a really strong Green party candidate or something.  

If the GOP found a good candidate, they'd have a good chance.  Right now, however, their candidates are Scott Walker, a wingnut who is either unknown or despised by every sane person outside of Milwaukee, and Mark Neumann, whose last venture into electoral politics was his race against Russ Feingold in 1998.  

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by: ajwagner @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 15:09:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lots of Disagreements in the Senate Races

Lots of disagreements in the Senate races; not as familiar with the gubernatorial races.  Most are in listing races as more competitive than they really are.

For Democrats, NV, NY, WI, and IL all should be Dem Favored.  These are blue-bluish states and there's no good R even in the race yet.  IL in particular is mislabeled as I don't see anyway Burris wins a primary should he decide to run for re-election.  CT should probabaly be Leans Dem, but I can understand that one.

For Republicans, I might make FL Lean Rep.  LA should probably be Rep Favored, and SC and SD should be Safe Republican.  SC in particular seems like a crazy rating--what I am missing on this one?  I might move OK and IA to Rep Favored on the idea that Coburn or Grassley could retire and if they did it would be a competitive race, but I understand why CQ has them where they are.

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by: sicembears @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 01:17:03 AM UTC

NV shoud be likely D, and given Burris's unpopularity IL should too

on the other hand I'd put CO and DE into the lean D category.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 03:15:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

CQ usually conservative in its rankings early on

I mean conservative in the sense that they are slow to make judgments about the relative safety of incumbents, and consider most races to be more competitive than other people do.  Thus the large number of races in the favored categories, despite all those incumbents being virtually safe.

As time goes on, they will shift more and more races towards one side as the situation becomes more clear.

On the whole, the Senate picture is about what I'd expect it to be, but I think we are on much better ground in the governor races than CQ believes.  Georgia for one is probably leaning our way at the moment, given the candidates running.

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by: skaje @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 02:26:03 AM UTC

Rothenberg updated his ratings yesterday, too

Moved Dodd to toss-up and Specter and Bunning to Lean Takeover.

Several other changes.

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

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by: JimM @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 03:22:14 AM UTC

Much more like it

As usual CQ is divorced from reality.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 10:45:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wow

Check out Rothenberg chanelling McCain from last summer. The disdain drips off the screen.

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 10:50:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Stu Rothenberg really is a scumbag

He doesn't even try to hide the fact that he's a rightwing apologist anymore.  I don't know why anyone would consider this guy even close to the same league as Charlie Cook.  Why anyone would spend money to subscribe to his work is beyond me.

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by: ChadInFL @ Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 01:33:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

His ratings are legit

But he is clearly a Republican.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 14:27:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Who the heck

do they think is going to take out Jim DeMint in SC?  I'd pay good money to see that one happen, but it's impossible.  He might as well be Richard Shelby.

Also, I strongly disagree with their rating of AZ-Gov as Lean GOP.  At the very least it's a tossup; more likely, Goddard is favored over all Republican comers.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 19:51:35 PM UTC

His approval is under 50%

But ya, he's still not going to be defeted.

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jim DeMint is doing as United States Senator?  

Approve 48%
Disapprove 39%

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by: ChadInFL @ Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 20:01:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They seem to think

That Goddard isn't that strong of a candidate because he narrowly lost a governor's 20 years ago. Surrreeee. I think it's suffice to say that he's rebounded.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

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by: Nico @ Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 03:45:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly

In most cases that would be a smart guess on their part.  However, Goddard was really young back then and most people don't even remember that he ran then.  He's more like Jerry Brown than he is like Kim Hendren.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 04:39:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Toasty

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 14:27:26 PM UTC