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NY-Gov: Another Day, Another Bad Poll

by: DavidNYC

Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 8:26 PM EDT

Siena College (PDF) (4/13-15, registered voters, March 2009 in parens):

David Paterson (D-inc): 11 (17)
Andrew Cuomo (D): 64 (67)
Tom Suozzi (D): 8
Undecided: 17 (17)
(MoE: ±5.5%)
David Paterson (D-inc): 29 (33)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 56 (56)
Undecided: 15 (11)
Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (51)
Rudy Giuliani (R): 39 (41)
Undecided: 8 (9)
(MoE: ±3.8%)

After Siena's last poll, you might have thought David Paterson had hit rock bottom. Not so. With numbers like these, it would almost be political malpractice if Andrew Cuomo didn't get into the race - he'll never have a better shot. It would also be mostly suicidal for Paterson to stay in, but he hasn't given any indication that he plans to bail - indeed, he even hired campaign staff.

And one of those hires, pollster Stan Greenberg, probably already told Paterson something which Siena now tells us: Gay marriage is popular in New York State. In fact, it's supported by a 53-39 margin (and 59-35 among Dems). Those numbers likely explain why Paterson has been pushing this issue hard of late, even though same-sex marriage legislation has little chance of passing the state Senate. It also helps to change the conversation away from the economy and, well, everything else.

(From the Anecdotal Evidence from Queens Dept., I was lucky enough to attend the Mets' home opener at their new stadium a week ago. A few "distinguished" guests were introduced over the PA. I had never heard boos as loud as those I heard for Paterson - except until they announced Shelly Silver, who even I booed. Mayor Mike, incidentally, was half booed, half cheered.)

Oddly enough, despite the strong pro-gay marriage numbers, Rudy Giuliani (who I still don't think will run) has decided to aim his first shot across the bow... against gay marriage:

"This will create a grass-roots movement. This is the kind of issue that, in many ways, is somewhat beyond politics," said Giuliani, a two-term mayor who unsuccessfully sought the GOP presidential nomination last year.
"I think gay marriage will obviously be an issue for any Republican next year because Republicans are either in favor of the position I'm in favor of, civil unions, or in many cases Republicans don't even favor civil unions," he continued.

Who even knows who Giuliani is listening to these days. His strategy during the GOP presidential primary was so insane and non-viable that I'm not surprised to see him spouting nonsense. I almost hope he does run, in fact. I'd love to see him get his ass whooped.

(Hat-tip: Political Wire)

DavidNYC :: NY-Gov: Another Day, Another Bad Poll

Tags: gay marriage, Rudy Giuliani, Andrew Cuomo, David Paterson, NY-Gov, Polls, (All Tags)

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NY-Gov: Another Day, Another Bad Poll | 20 comments

Cuomo or DavidNYC need to get in this race NOW

I want this thing locked up as a hold for 2010.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 19:36:50 PM CDT

by: you @ soon

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If they don't, I will.

As a student who has only lived in NY for about half a year, what do you think my floor against Paterson would be? 35%?

by: Kanamit @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 23:28:35 PM CDT

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Cuomo

has to do little more than extend his hand and the prize will be thrust into it.

by: SC @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 20:04:20 PM CDT

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Exactly why he can be so coy at the moment.

He has little need to announce early that he's running.
Anyone know when NY's filing deadline is?

by: homerun @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 20:35:50 PM CDT

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Gulliani gave a very cordial nod to Cuomo in his recent interview.

You know it wouldn't have been that way if Cuomo was a gubernatorial candidate. Save it for later.

by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 20:38:00 PM CDT

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Giuliani is a buffoon

Still thinks he's running for president, doesn't realize the massive hits to his popularity he's taken in New York.

Against him, I think Paterson might actually win. I'm not blind, I can read polls, but in a Paterson/Giuliani race I'm not sure whose negatives are going to be worse 19 months from now.

I think a lot of these people telling pollsters they'd vote for Giuliani are just supremely pissed at Paterson. I think many of them would have second thoughts if it actually turned out that Giuliani might be governor.

by: skaje @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 20:31:48 PM CDT

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I agree

Guiliani's continued play to the GOP far-right makes no sense. He still does tons of interviews with Fox News/right-wing talk radio bashing Democrats and playing tothe far-right.

If he's going to run for Governor that strategy makes no sense because noone would challenge him in a NY GOP primary. If he wants to be Governor he should have moved back to the center/left after his disasterous Presidential run.

Even attacking gay marriage isn't as popular of a stand as it once was. Two polls this week put the support for gay marriage in NY at around 50%.

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 20:48:35 PM CDT

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What hits?

According to this poll his favorability rating is at 55%.

Liberty Avenue Politics - a place for politics in Southern Queens

by: nrafter530 @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 21:29:19 PM CDT

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I thought about this, too

But I think the present-day numbers are misleading, or at least, don't tell the full story. Back when he was last in the spotlight, during his terribly ill-fated presidential run, his numbers did take a decided hit in NY. Indeed, during January 2008, he dropped all the way to 44-48.

I think if he got back into the mix, those numbers would be more likely to tumble back down rather than go up, especially now that we have all the fodder from the GOP primary on videotape.

by: DavidNYC @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 21:58:31 PM CDT

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what if cuomo is as cowardly as his father

not to be mean, but what if they both have the same fear of success? who's left? i'm worried that spitzer might be trying a comeback. him and blago are the only two who have egos possible to contemplate it. also, i hear that fran dreshure still wants into ny-politics, and it doesn't have to be the senate. none of these sound good.

being normal is for the mediocre.

by: doug_tuttle @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 20:55:00 PM CDT

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The difference between Spitzer and Blago?

Spitzer has some sanity.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 12:12:17 PM CDT

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It's a difficult time for Patterson.

He's making tough and unpopular decisions to balance the budget. The economy is bad. And he's made a blunder or two. Which actually doesnt make him all that different from most of other governors many of whom are having their own awful poll numbers. Patterson has also had labor unions running tv ads for month criticizing some of his cuts.

If they economy starts to turn the corner he does have a real shot at making a comeback. If not as much I dislike Andrew Cuomo we'll need him in the race.

Can't say I'm paying much attention to the statewide races until the citywide races in 2009 are over. And by then we should have a clearer picture whether he'll sink as he's appearing to do now or swim.

by: Taget @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 21:18:49 PM CDT

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I doubt the WFP will forgive him

The WFP and the unions were not happy about Paterson's unwillingness to tax millionaires. If nothing else, Jonathan Tasini (Hillary's 2006 primary challenger) will probably get in the race, and if there's somebody even slightly more heavyweight, labor is likely to coalesce behind that candidate within days.

by: Englishlefty @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 17:20:35 PM CDT

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Giuliani is being foolish

Saying he's in favor of civil unions doesn't appeal to the GOP base since I think most Republicans even consider them to be much different from gay marriage. So he's alienating everybody. Trademark Rudy!

by: possumtracker1991 @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 22:59:58 PM CDT

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You know

I saw poll when I was at the Republican National Convention (it was for a class and I'm from St Paul, it was fucking awesome regardless of the GOP) and the poll was of convention goers and their opinion on gay marriage.

It was roughly in the mid 40's for both no legal recognition and civil unions and then the really small percentage pushed full gay marriage over the top and the poll showed more delegates in favor of some legal recognition compared to none at all.

Of course I cant cite it or anything like that so take it for what it is I guess.

by: Andrew @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 11:48:10 AM CDT

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Even Spitzer

Would have a chance against him in a primary, i bet. Especially since hes been getting some not-so-hateful press lately. But he wont run. In fact he even praised Paterson in that big Newsweek interview Spitzer did.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 23:46:23 PM CDT

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Giuliani's primary strategy

Was definitely stupid. But, in reality, he didnt stand much of a chance in those key early states IA, NH, SC, FL and MI. Too socially moderate for IA, SC, too pro-gun control for NH (and perhaps too 'law and order' given NH's libertarian nature), and hed split the moderate vote, with McCain, in FL and MI which otherwise might vote for a moderate (i.e. McCain in 2000 in MI and Gov. Crist in FL in 06). And even though he was friends and obviously very fond of McCain he should have went after him the hardest. He was the only other "moderate" in the race. To have any chance at all he had to make McCain irrelevant before any of the caucus/primaries. McCain was, for a time, before he rebounded, but it wasnt because of anything Rudy did.

by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 00:07:38 AM CDT

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His 2008 presidential strategy was mocked by Dave Barry

as basically doing nothing until it was mathematically impossible to win the race, at which point he'd drop out.

I think I'd tweak that a bit, to make it doing nothing until Florida came around, when it'd be absolutely too late.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 12:09:25 PM CDT

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Also, thanks to the 2008 Democratic presidential primary,

Montana and South Dakota now have the right to point and laugh at Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Wyoming, Florida, and Michigan.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 12:10:14 PM CDT

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Okay, maybe not Wyoming.

That was only a Republican primary.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 12:10:38 PM CDT

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