Karen Thurmond

now the chairman of the State Democratic Party, or at least she was. They took all the black areas of Jackson, which she used to represent, out and gave her more republcian territory in a Republican year and she still just narrowly lost to then State Senator Ginny Waite-Brown.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 15:15:16 PM UTC

And

Thurman has done a pathetic job as head of the Florida Democratic Party.  Sorry, but gaining a net half dozen seats in the state house and ZERO gains in the state senate in the two best Democratic years in chambers repubs have near super majorities in is nothing more than a dead cat bounce.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 16:34:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yeah Democrats have been pathetic

even if they are intensely gerrymandered Republicans still hold like ten or 20 Democratic leaning legislative seats that should be held by Democrats. I couldn't believe they lost Sen Rod blanks seat around Gainesville last year. I mean, how do you do that? That left us pickign up only one seat that year, so did we lose one in 2008?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 19:37:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There is a reason for this

voter suppression and Diebold.

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by: IHateBush @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 20:53:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

the FL-DP

is also just pathetic. Diebold is actually far from the largest manufacturer adn i don't think that's what FL uses.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 20:55:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's only part of it

An by 2008 it was a very small part of it.  Diebold is going the way of the dodo and by 2008 it had very little effect.  It was pathetic leadership and organizational issues that led to literally dozens of our state rep candidates losing by 6 points or less in 2006 and 2008.  

There was no excuse for not picking up another half dozen to a dozen state house seats in 2008.  But what did we net?  One friggin seat.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 21:14:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

I did an analysis of the seats we currently hold. Even with the gerrymandered map, Republicans still hold almost all of the swing districts. All those few seat gains were in the most Democratic districts, they weren't really major victories at all. The FDP is a complete shame.

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by: Progressive America @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 22:20:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The only positive

Is that quite a few of our swing seat pickups in the Florida state house came in Pinellas County, which bodes well for FL-10 post-Bill Young.  

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 22:23:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What did the old 5th district look like?

I've been searching everywhere and can't find a map. I can't believe Jackson County was in it! That's at the border of Alabama and Georgia, according to a description I read the old 5th was a Gainesville to North Tampa district anyone got anything more precise?

Btw: When did Democrats last have control of the redistricting process? This district was apparently drawn for Thurmound to defeat a Republican so I assume we had control in 1991.  

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by: fitchfan28 @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 04:35:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Bush 41 Justice Department controlled the process

In 1991 because Democrats couldnt agree on a plan that created three black majority districts.  The one good district Democrats got out of the 1991 process was FL-05.  It connected liberal Gainsville with Hernando, Citris, and Levy county on the coast and resulted in around a D+2 district.  

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by: Brendan @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 22:01:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FL-05 now added to watchlist.

Hmm, what IS my watchlist?  I don't think I've even made it.  What a good time to start.

My House watchlist, for now (please correct and suggest entries): Races not in parentheses have confirmed challengers.
* (AK-AL) need a challenger here!  will Ethan Berkowitz take another shot?  (on Young)
* WA-08: Suzan DelBene vs. Dave Reichert  (likely R until I see otherwise)
* CA-03: Bill Durston vs. Dan Lungren
* (CA-26) need a challenger here!  (David Dreier)
* CA-44: Bill Hedrick vs. Ken Calvert
* (CA-46) need a challenger here!  (Dana Rohrabacher)
* CA-48: Beth Krom vs. John Campbell
* CA-50: Francine Busby vs. Brian Bilbray  (likely R until I see otherwise)
* (NV-02) do we have a challenger here yet, in this rapidly blueing district?  (Dean Heller)
* ID-01: Walt Minnick (freshman defense)
* (WY-AL) need a challenger here!  though it's unlikely we can do much without Trauner running...  (Cynthia Lummis)
* UT-02: Jim Matheson (non-freshman defense)
* (MT-AL) need a challenger here!  how unbeatable is Rehberg?  (Dennis Rehberg)
* CO-04: Betsy Markey (freshman defense)
* AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (freshman defense)
* NM-02: Harry Teague (freshman defense)
* TX-10: Jack McDonald vs. Mike McCaul
* TX-17: Chet Edwards (non-freshman defense)
* (TX-22) need a challenger here!  though I doubt we'll ever have a shot at this district unless it's changed...  (Pete Olsen)
* TX-23: Ciro Rodriguez (non-freshman defense) (won 55-41; not the best numbers)
* (OK-05) need a challenger here!  will Andrew Rice try for this seat after getting in over his head trying to go after Inhofe?  (open (Mary Fallin))
* (KS-02) need a challenger here!  another run for Boyda?  (Lynn Jenkins)
* (NE-02) need a challenger here!  those voters can't vote for Obama and Terry together anymore...  (Lee Terry)
* SD-AL: open (open defense) if Herseth-Sandlin goes for Gov or Sen
* (MN-02) need a challenger here!  (John Kline)
* (MN-03) need a challenger here!  (Erik Paulsen)
* (MN-06) do we have a challenger here yet, who can finally beat Bachmann?
* (IA-04) need a challenger here!  Becky Greenwald?  (Tom Latham, the sane one in the very blue district)
* (IA-05) need a challenger here!  Rob Hubler?  (Steve King, the crazy one)
* (MO-06) need a challenger here!  (Sam Graves)
* (MO-09) need a challenger here!  (Blaine Luetkemeyer)
* (LA-02) WTF LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL  (Joe Cao)
* (LA-04) need a challenger here!  (John Fleming)
* (LA-06) need a challenger here!  (Bill Cassidy)
* Wiconsin?  Wisconsin?  no?
* MI-07: Mark Schauer (freshman defense)
* (MI-08) need a challenger here!  (Mike J. Rogers)
* MI-09: Gary Peters (freshman defense)
* (MI-11) need a challenger here!  (Thad McCotter)
* (IL-06) need a challenger here!  (Pete Roskam)
* (IL-10) need a challenger here!  another perennially challenged seat (Mark Kirk)
* (IL-13) need a challenger here!  (Judy Biggert)
* (IL-18) need a challenger here!  we might want to knock off Schock before he gets entrenched.
* IN-02: Joe Donnelly (non-freshman defense, to cement him for 2012)
* (IN-03) need a challenger here!  (Mark Souder)
* (IN-04) need a challenger here!  (Steve Buyer)
* (IN-06) need a challenger here!  (Mike Pence)
* OH-01: Steve Driehaus (freshman defense)
* (OH-02) need a challenger here!  we should really keep one on call in case Schmidt starts shooting her mouth off, though she seems to have more self-control than Bachmann (Jean Schmidt)
* (OH-12) need a challenger here!  (Pat Tiberi)
* OH-15: Mary Jo Kilroy (freshman defense)
* (MS-03) need a challenger here!  though, better question may be, do we have any chance of knocking off Harper?  (Gregg Harper)
* AL-02: Bobby Bright (freshman defense)
* AL-03: Josh Segall vs. Mike D. Rogers
* AL-05: Parker Griffith (freshman defense)
* GA-08: Jim Marshall (non-freshman defense)
* GA-12: John Barrow (non-freshman defense)
* FL-05: Jim Piccillo vs. Ginny Brown-Waite  (Piccillo looks to be this cycle's double-double-letter candidate!)
* FL-10: Charlie Justice vs. C. W. "Bill" Young  (the battle of the awesome names?)
* (FL-13) need a challenger here!
* (FL-16) do we have a challenger here yet, before Rooney gets entrenched?
* (FL-18) need a challenger here!  (Ileana Ros-Lehtinen)
* (FL-21) need a challenger here!  (Lincoln Diaz-Balart)
* FL-22: Ron Klein (non-freshman defense)
* (FL-25) need a challenger here!  (Mario Diaz-Balart)
* (SC-01) need a challenger here!  will Ketner try again?  (Henry Brown)
* (SC-02) need a challenger here!  will Rob Miller try again?  (Joe Wilson)
* (SC-03) need a challenger here!  (open (J. Gresham Barrett))
* VA-02: Glenn Nye (freshman defense)
* VA-05: Tom Perriello (freshman defense)
* (VA-10) need a challenger here!  Judy Feder?  (Frank Wolf)
* MD-01: Frank Kratovil (freshman defense)
* (MD-06) need a challenger here!  (Roscoe Bartlett)
* DE-AL: Chris John Carney vs. Mike Castle
* (WV-02) need a challenger here!  Anne Barth?  (Shelley Moore Capito)
* PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper (freshman defense)
* (PA-05) need a challenger here!  Mark McCracken?  (Glenn Thompson)
* (PA-06) yet another tantalizingly competitive seat!  (Jim Gerlach)
* PA-08: Patrick Murphy (non-freshman defense)
* PA-10: Chris Carney (non-freshman defense)
* PA-11: Paul Kanjorski (non-freshman defense)
* PA-12: John Murtha (non-freshman defense)
* (PA-15) need a challenger here!  Siobhan "Sam" Bennett?  (Charlie Dent)
* NJ-03: John Adler (freshman defense)
* (NJ-04) need a challenger here!  do we have any hope of winning here? (Chris Smith)
* (NJ-05) need a challenger here!  (Scott Garrett)
* (NJ-07) need a challenger here!  (Leonard Lance)
* NY-20: (most likely) Scott Murphy (freshman defense)
* NY-24: Mike Arcuri (non-freshman defense)
* NY-25: Dan Maffei (freshman defense)
* (NY-26) need a challenger here!  (get out, Jack Davis)  (Chris Lee)
* NY-29: Eric Massa (freshman defense)
* CT-04: Jim Himes (freshman defense)
* NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter (non-freshman defense)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 16:44:06 PM UTC

I wouldn't even consider adding FL-05

This is clearly not a serious challenger.  Sounds like we're going to lose by the usual 60-40 margin with this candidate.  

---

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 16:54:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Brown-Waite not loaded

$332,308 cash on hand.  With Posey, Rooney, Jeff Miller, and Mario Diz-Balart all under $100 K maybe it is time to start pressing all over the place and see who starts to sweat.

Taking the cash from Don Young, David Dreier and FDrank Wolf were good positioning moves.  Republicans can only write so many checks.  Stretch them thin.

---

by: David Kowalski @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 18:59:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Jeff Miller (FL-01)?

Let's not go crazy now.  We'll probably win those deep red suburban GOP Georgia districts before we ever have a chance at FL-01.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 19:22:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haha yeah GA-01 is more winnable than FL-01

Although FL 01 did improve where FL 02 did not but still 32 percent for Obama does not look pretty. OTOH with Kingston rumored for a run for Governor maybe someone could come along to make GA 01 interesting.

---

by: fitchfan28 @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 19:33:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

it used to be those rural

counties in southern georgia that formed the Democratic coalition along with the black areas, Savanna, Columbia and Atlanta to enable them to win statewide.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 19:35:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hard to believe it

But we actually did hold FL-01 as recently as 1994.  Ya, Rep. Hutto was a classic DINO, but having any Dem representing FL-01 is hard to believe.  He retired in 1994 and Joe "dead intern" Scarborough took the seat.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 19:38:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

dunno,

you know Panama City, Bay county, is actually more hardright than Escambria. Way more.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

---

by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 19:34:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Make Miller fund raise

Jeff Miller has $6,000 cash on hand. He's a free ride every cycle.  Never raises much money and never gets pushed.  Every buck we make Jeff Miller spend is a buck that Posey and Rooney and the Diaz-Balarts can't spend.  

---

by: David Kowalski @ Mon Apr 20, 2009 at 22:02:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Does he actually give money to them, though?

If he's just not doing anything and sitting pretty, it's probably more worth it to go after Posey and Rooney and the Diaz-Balart brothers.

On the other hand, if he's hauling truckloads for them...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 00:05:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I forgot Posey

* (FL-15) need a challenger here, to take on a Republican comedy routine guy!  (Bill Posey)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 00:08:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There is no Dem bench in FL-15

I don't think we have a single state Senator or state Rep in the district.  

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 00:21:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What about a mayor or county commissioner?

Anybody?

---

by: fitchfan28 @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 00:26:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There was a County Commissioner

Last name Naples.  I believe a Brevard County Commissioner.  She declined to run in 2008, so I doubt she would run in 2010.  Former State Rep. Bill Sasso is a possibility.  But he was defeated for re-election in 2008 for his state house seat.  Doubt he would have any real chance of winning.

Sadly with the bench we have we're likely to keep losing FL-15 by the same margins we've been losing there by.  Somewhere between a 60-40 and 56-44 margin.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 00:35:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It pains me

to see Democrats keep failing to find a decent candidate in FL-15.  Democrats seem to have a floor there of around 43% and if they could find a candidate who actually raises money and campaigns, they could win the seat.  

---

by: Brendan @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 02:37:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

that's a big watchlist

It might be faster if you just list the races that aren't on your watchlist.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

---

by: duffman @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 04:25:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nah.

I doubt I'm watching over half of the 435.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 15:54:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ciro

55-41 is a good margin to win by in that district for any Dem, much less a very liberal Dem like Ciro.  It's still a slightly repub-leaning district if anything.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 16:05:11 PM UTC

I basically pick out incumbents that won by less than around 55-60

less than about 55 for longer incumbents, less than about 60 for recent newbies, or so.  Just as a rule of thumb as to who might need to cement their hold on a seat.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Tue Apr 21, 2009 at 16:15:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]